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Thread: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

  1. #61
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Yep, in Vietnam we made the South Vietnamese change their government from a mandarin style into a democracy while a war was going on. The Romans created and ruled their Empire which lasted 500 years or so because once they conquered a people, a nation, a state, they let them basically government themselves, maintain their culture and traditions with a Roman overseer to collect the taxes due Rome. They did not try to change the people into Romans, they let them be themselves to be ruled locally by their fellow tribesmen or countrymen.

    We accomplished our original mission pretty darn quick, within a couple to few months. We with air power and the Afghani on the ground drove out the Taliban thus stopping the training grounds and safe havens for AQ. We didn't get UBL, but the Northern Alliance, a group of tribes allied together against the Taliban were our friends. We could have let them set up their local government as they wanted and saw fit. Keep our air power at the ready and let the Afghani fight on the ground. But those in power here thought they new better and started this nation building stuff which was nothing more than forcing our type of government upon those who didn't want it. Now we are left with what we have, most likely a nation that will revert in the near future to what they originally wanted once the Taliban were driven out. Except this time, the Taliban is coming back and probably quite a lot of those tribes that fought to drive them our, will be fighting by their side to return them power. What a mess nation building has caused.
    hey. since you know about the Northern Alliance ( about the time Afg. appeared on my radar screen)..

    can you tell us/me how they were defeated?? The Taliban beat them -yes??
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    I don't think Nukes were ever a serious consideration. Possibility maybe, but it was the their other WMD's that concerned us the most.
    We specifically were asked if we had to wait for the smoking gun in the form of a mushroom cloud over a US city!!!! Do you know why that rhetoric was ratcheted up? Because Hans Blix had exclusive access to everything, even the presidential palaces and was coming up with nada. That's point number 1, but secondly, what would any WMD's that Saddam may have had (though of course he had none) have to do with 9/11??? Which is what became the big drive behind invading Iraq. Why is it that our government always enjoys such immunity from prosecution of war crimes from willing American citizens. This is really a riddle.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Yep, in Vietnam we made the South Vietnamese change their government from a mandarin style into a democracy while a war was going on. The Romans created and ruled their Empire which lasted 500 years or so because once they conquered a people, a nation, a state, they let them basically government themselves, maintain their culture and traditions with a Roman overseer to collect the taxes due Rome. They did not try to change the people into Romans, they let them be themselves to be ruled locally by their fellow tribesmen or countrymen.

    We accomplished our original mission pretty darn quick, within a couple to few months. We with air power and the Afghani on the ground drove out the Taliban thus stopping the training grounds and safe havens for AQ. We didn't get UBL, but the Northern Alliance, a group of tribes allied together against the Taliban were our friends. We could have let them set up their local government as they wanted and saw fit. Keep our air power at the ready and let the Afghani fight on the ground. But those in power here thought they new better and started this nation building stuff which was nothing more than forcing our type of government upon those who didn't want it. Now we are left with what we have, most likely a nation that will revert in the near future to what they originally wanted once the Taliban were driven out. Except this time, the Taliban is coming back and probably quite a lot of those tribes that fought to drive them our, will be fighting by their side to return them power. What a mess nation building has caused.
    After 2 years in Afghanistan when the bulk of troops was transferred to the new Iraq War was the error. They should've came home and left the CIA and Defense intel to monitor any imminent terror attacks coming from certain groups and let a Special Forces team deal with it.

    I believe when you show patience and react with justice it's difficult to invoke extreme behavior. But when you act as brutal and more vicious than your enemy, then you create endless War.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by annata View Post
    hey. since you know about the Northern Alliance ( about the time Afg. appeared on my radar screen)..

    can you tell us/me how they were defeated?? The Taliban beat them -yes??
    Afghanistan has/had 18 tribes and at one time each tribe ruled their own little area of Afghanistan with shifting alliances among them that suited their needs at the time. The Taliban which is the largest tribe and 3 smaller tribes united in an attempt to bring the entire country under their rule. The other 14 tribes united and formed the Northern Alliance, a loosely united group to be able to fight back. By the time we became involved the Northern Alliance held only a small portion of mountains in the northern sector of Afghanistan and were facing the real possibility of defeat. But when the Taliban failed to hand over UBL and put an end to the AQ training camps after 9-11, the United States allied themselves with the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance hadn't been defeated yet.

    With a few SF and paramilitary on the ground to coordinate the air attacks and Afghani ground action in a couple of short months the 14 tribe Northern Alliance was able to drive the Taliban and the other 3 tribes allied with them out of Afghanistan or into the mountains ranges bordering on Pakistan. The Afghani's failed to capture UBL and then we began pouring in our troops and nation building began in an attempt to capture UBL. Pretty much the rest is history.

    How many of the original 14 tribes have remained loyal to us, I really do not know. But they saw our placing Karzi and his tribe in charge of them as a slap in the face. Here they had fought the Taliban to avoid just that and here we go placing someone from another tribe in charge of them. All they wanted was to go back to their original area of Afghanistan and let the tribal elders or their chief rule them as they had for thousands of years. Not to come under some leader from a different tribe. In this way we became no better than the Taliban or the USSR or for England even when they tried to subdue Afghanistan way back when.

    Tribal rule is important to most of these people. When one tribe or another needs help, their shifting alliances provided that. But even then each tribe had their own ruler. This I think is too engrained in them to be overcome. To most of the tribes, the country of Afghanistan didn't exist. Most didn't know or even heard of Kabul. To them prior to us, there was no such thing as a central government, only their own leaders. The only close thing I think you could associate these tribes and Afghanistan with is our own American Indians. Each tribe of our Indians ruled themselves with their own leaders, they fought each other and they also had sifting alliances at times. But they never became fully united.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    After 2 years in Afghanistan when the bulk of troops was transferred to the new Iraq War was the error. They should've came home and left the CIA and Defense intel to monitor any imminent terror attacks coming from certain groups and let a Special Forces team deal with it.

    I believe when you show patience and react with justice it's difficult to invoke extreme behavior. But when you act as brutal and more vicious than your enemy, then you create endless War.
    Yes, I agree we could have very easily keep our air power ready and a few SF on the ground to ensure the Taliban never returned and let the Northern Alliance govern themselves as they saw fit. It probably would have mean having 14 teams, at least one for each tribe, but it was doable. If the Taliban, UBL and AQ tried to come back, we could have very easily coordinated our air power once again with the Afghani's on the ground.

    In some countries, the less of a footprint we make the better off we are.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    We specifically were asked if we had to wait for the smoking gun in the form of a mushroom cloud over a US city!!!! Do you know why that rhetoric was ratcheted up? Because Hans Blix had exclusive access to everything, even the presidential palaces and was coming up with nada. That's point number 1, but secondly, what would any WMD's that Saddam may have had (though of course he had none) have to do with 9/11??? Which is what became the big drive behind invading Iraq. Why is it that our government always enjoys such immunity from prosecution of war crimes from willing American citizens. This is really a riddle.
    The fact was that Saddam wasn't producing the weapons that, at the time, we knew he had. And even Blix said that he wasn't satisfied with the results. Going back and knowing what we know now is just monday morning quarterbacking. And to acuse anyone of war crimes is the cheaper what war crimes. We didn't go in and willfully target civilians without mercy, in fact, our strategy was about causing as minimal damage as possible. And tell it to the Kurds and the Shia that they're better off than they were with Saddam.

    All that being said, we should of waited for more time, but he wasn't the most cooperating. And to imply otherwise is to distort history. If anything though, it has given the country a sense of caution when it comes to other engagements, like with Syria. We probably would of attacked them had we not gone through the last decade in Iraq and Afghanistan... and the whole question of WMDs. Ultimately, it was bad intel we were fed and everyone, (15-0 vote remember) believed it.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Yes, I agree we could have very easily keep our air power ready and a few SF on the ground to ensure the Taliban never returned and let the Northern Alliance govern themselves as they saw fit. It probably would have mean having 14 teams, at least one for each tribe, but it was doable. If the Taliban, UBL and AQ tried to come back, we could have very easily coordinated our air power once again with the Afghani's on the ground.

    In some countries, the less of a footprint we make the better off we are.

    The whole philosophical approach to this "War on Terror" (btw stupid phrase), became flawed after the initial success of suppressing and eliminating AQ and Taliban. If we would've pulled out Afghanistan, never created Gitmo or invaded Iraq, the terror situation might have been tamped down to pre Kuwait levels.

    Preemptive strikes on presumptive future threats is a militaristic approach, which is why we usually let the civilian leadership have executive command. To the Defense Department everything is solved with fighting because that's what they do. Ask a surgeon how to fix a medical problem and it's surgery, to a hammer everything looks like a nail.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Afghanistan has/had 18 tribes and at one time each tribe ruled their own little area of Afghanistan with shifting alliances among them that suited their needs at the time. The Taliban which is the largest tribe and 3 smaller tribes united in an attempt to bring the entire country under their rule. The other 14 tribes united and formed the Northern Alliance, a loosely united group to be able to fight back. By the time we became involved the Northern Alliance held only a small portion of mountains in the northern sector of Afghanistan and were facing the real possibility of defeat. But when the Taliban failed to hand over UBL and put an end to the AQ training camps after 9-11, the United States allied themselves with the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance hadn't been defeated yet.

    With a few SF and paramilitary on the ground to coordinate the air attacks and Afghani ground action in a couple of short months the 14 tribe Northern Alliance was able to drive the Taliban and the other 3 tribes allied with them out of Afghanistan or into the mountains ranges bordering on Pakistan. The Afghani's failed to capture UBL and then we began pouring in our troops and nation building began in an attempt to capture UBL. Pretty much the rest is history.

    How many of the original 14 tribes have remained loyal to us, I really do not know. But they saw our placing Karzi and his tribe in charge of them as a slap in the face. Here they had fought the Taliban to avoid just that and here we go placing someone from another tribe in charge of them. All they wanted was to go back to their original area of Afghanistan and let the tribal elders or their chief rule them as they had for thousands of years. Not to come under some leader from a different tribe. In this way we became no better than the Taliban or the USSR or for England even when they tried to subdue Afghanistan way back when.

    Tribal rule is important to most of these people. When one tribe or another needs help, their shifting alliances provided that. But even then each tribe had their own ruler. This I think is too engrained in them to be overcome. To most of the tribes, the country of Afghanistan didn't exist. Most didn't know or even heard of Kabul. To them prior to us, there was no such thing as a central government, only their own leaders. The only close thing I think you could associate these tribes and Afghanistan with is our own American Indians. Each tribe of our Indians ruled themselves with their own leaders, they fought each other and they also had sifting alliances at times. But they never became fully united.
    thanks! I knew about the tribal nature of Afg, did not know that history though...
    man. all we had to do was wait it out, and suppress any terrorists (AQ) camps..let them fight it out, and go back to fiefdoms/warlords..

    We really went overboard, and Karzai has been insanely impossible to deal with..
    Oṃ maṇi padme hūṃ

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by annata View Post
    thanks! I knew about the tribal nature of Afg, did not know that history though...
    man. all we had to do was wait it out, and suppress any terrorists (AQ) camps..let them fight it out, and go back to fiefdoms/warlords..

    We really went overboard, and Karzai has been insanely impossible to deal with..
    I wonder how different things would of been if that leader of the Northern Alliance weren't assassintated on 9/10/2001. What was his name?

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    The whole philosophical approach to this "War on Terror" (btw stupid phrase), became flawed after the initial success of suppressing and eliminating AQ and Taliban. If we would've pulled out Afghanistan, never created Gitmo or invaded Iraq, the terror situation might have been tamped down to pre Kuwait levels.

    Preemptive strikes on presumptive future threats is a militaristic approach, which is why we usually let the civilian leadership have executive command. To the Defense Department everything is solved with fighting because that's what they do. Ask a surgeon how to fix a medical problem and it's surgery, to a hammer everything looks like a nail.
    LOL, that is one way to put it. The generals had to have there men in place. The idea of a successful military mission with only a few SF and paramilitary on the ground is anathema to most army generals and there perceptions of how a military battle should be fought or a war waged. It was quite successful and if we had just left those there in the beginning in place, our foot print and future causalities would have been very small. There is a precedence for a small group of men, military men on the ground waging war against vastly superior odds and at least achieving a stalemate using basically native ground forces and our air power. That place was Laos and I was part of it. No more than 120 military men on the ground in that country at any one time for around ten years fought the PL and NVA to a stalemate and accomplishing something that 550,000 men next door in Vietnam itself couldn't.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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