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Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues To

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A new survey of 25 GOP-held districts shows dwindling favorability for Republican members of the House in the wake of the recent government shutdown.

The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.

The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts.

When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.

Democrats in the House only need to see a net increase of 17 seats in order to take back the majority. This poll indicates that Democrats could see an increase of as many as 49 seats.

Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues To Drop: Poll

It's going to happen
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I sincerely doubt it will happen this soon. If this mentality keeps up, this is perhaps the start of the overestimation of reach that plagued Republicans last time around and what plagued Democrats after 2003.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

"Generic Democrat" has never actually run for office.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

"Generic Democrat" has never actually run for office.

He or she will look pretty good against the likes of actual tea partiers who tried to drive the US into default.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

Probably not going to happen. The districts are so gerrymandered and there's so many safe zones that the Dems would have to win the overall house vote by roughly 10 percent to win back the House. The chance of that happening is approximately zero.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues


I hope it does. I'd like to see the mess they can make if they have total control. Last time, it was Obamacare shoved down people's throats. Caveat: I think Obamacare in some form was needed. They way it was enacted? The problems that will have to be speedily corrected? Therein lies the rub.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

He or she will look pretty good against the likes of actual tea partiers who tried to drive the US into default.

The tea partiers aren't in the contested districts, really. They're in a lot of those heavy red zones and are so effectively gerrymandered that only a Republican can take them in a primary, the general election is basically spoken for already.
Plus, "generic candidate" always comes with a rosy tint, because everyone envisions their ideal candidate. Real people don't usually poll as well.

Democrats took more a million votes more than Republicans in the House in 2012. Republicans still held it by a solid majority. The gerrymandering they've done is just that good. To say "It's going to happen" is wildly premature at this point.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I hope it does. I'd like to see the mess they can make if they have total control. Last time, it was Obamacare shoved down people's throats. Caveat: I think Obamacare in some form was needed. They way it was enacted? The problems that will have to be speedily corrected? Therein lies the rub.

Addressing issues with Obamacare requires Republican votes, and Republicans don't want Obamacare to work.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

The tea partiers aren't in the contested districts, really. They're in a lot of those heavy red zones and are so effectively gerrymandered that only a Republican can take them in a primary, the general election is basically spoken for already.
Plus, "generic candidate" always comes with a rosy tint, because everyone envisions their ideal candidate. Real people don't usually poll as well.

Democrats took more a million votes more than Republicans in the House in 2012. Republicans still held it by a solid majority. The gerrymandering they've done is just that good. To say "It's going to happen" is wildly premature at this point.

I'm an optimist and believe that the American people can take only so much knownothingism before realizing, "did they actually say that?"
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

they have no chance as unions are figuring out out ACA ****ed them on the great insurance they had. Democrats are losing the unions fast
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.

Please. Ronald Reagan would get called a RINO these days.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

The polls keep getting worse for the GOP. They seem to be in full panic mode after the debt ceiling fiasco. It's not like they weren't warned. What dopes.

Post-Shutdown Polls Find Americans Angry, GOP Majority Potentially Vulnerable


The aftermath of the government shutdown leaves the public angry and profoundly anti-incumbent, according to two polls released Tuesday morning, which confirm that Americans lay much of the blame for the ordeal on the GOP.

Just over 80 percent disapprove of the shutdown, a Washington Post/ABC poll finds, and wide majorities say it has damaged the United States' economy, its image abroad, and the morale of federal employees. Even more -- 87 percent -- say it's indicative of broader problems in Washington.

Other gauges of the national mood bear out that pessimism. Only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track, the lowest number since 2011, and down 8 points from July. Just 23 percent are satisfied with how the political system is working.

Congressional approval is at a miserable 12 percent in the Post/ABC poll, its lowest point in 39 years. More Americans disapprove than approve of their own representative for the first time in at least 24 years. In a USA Today/Princeton Survey Research Associates poll, 47 percent of Americans say Congress would be improved if every member were voted out, while just 4 percent think it would be worse.

While the 2014 elections remain more than a year away, and much in the political landscape could change before that time, the polls present a potentially troubling picture for Republicans.

"Those findings are similar to the public's views in previous years when voter dismay cost one side or the other control of the House," USA Today's Susan Page writes. "In 1994, when Democrats lost their majority, 40% said Congress would be better off if most members were replaced. In 2006, when Republicans lost control, 42% held that view."

In the Post/ABC poll, 48 percent of registered voters said they would prefer to vote for a Democratic House candidate, while 40 percent would vote for a Republican, although those numbers are unchanged from a May survey.

President Barack Obama, congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans all get negative ratings for their handling of the budget negotiations. A record high 63 percent of Americans view the Republican Party unfavorably, up 10 points since Sept. 30, the day before the shutdown. The Democratic Party's unfavorable rating also stands at a record high of 49 percent, a 7-point increase from Sept. 30.

The GOP, however, takes the bulk of blame for the shutdown In the Post/ABC poll, a 53 percent majority of Americans blame Republicans more for the shutdown, while 29 percent blame Obama more. In the USA Today/PSRA poll, which asked about the two parties, 39 percent blame Republicans more, and 19 percent primarily blame Democrats.

While Obama's ratings have declined fairly steadily since his second inauguration, his approval in this poll stands at 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving -- essentially unchanged from his standing this summer (though other polls have found a somewhat steeper decline). Approval for his implementation of the health care law has actually increased 7 points since mid-September, with most of the improvement coming from those who formerly expressed no opinion.

"The survey highlights just how badly the GOP hard-liners and the leaders who went along with them misjudged the public mood," the Post's Dan Balz and Scott Clement write, referring to the Republican push to defund Obamacare that led to the budget impasse.

The results line up with polls taken during the shutdown, such as one that put the Republican Party's favorability at a record low, and a poll released yesterday by CNN that found a majority of Americans think it's bad for the country that Republicans control the House.

The Post/ABC poll surveyed 1,002 Americans, while the USA Today/PSRA poll surveyed 1,001 Americans. Both were conducted between Oct. 17 and Oct. 20, using live telephone interviews.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

From the op:

The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.

Says it all.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

From the op:



Says it all.

Does it explain why an ABC/Post poll says the same thing, or worse?

I bet we're going to get into "the polls are lying meme" that conservatives did right before their last electoral debacle. Perfect!
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I sincerely doubt it will happen this soon. If this mentality keeps up, this is perhaps the start of the overestimation of reach that plagued Republicans last time around and what plagued Democrats after 2003.

Agree completely.

Forgive me, but getting worked up about a polling organizations whose highly questionable methods skew left and whose poll is funded by MoveOn.org, that is done in the middle of the "controversy" happening a YEAR away from election, isn't something I'm apt to do.

I put far more stock in the Analysis of someone like Nate Silver over PPP. If the election was TODAY I'd wager there was a reasonable shot to see the Republicans lose the House. But we're a year away. Multiple "crises" will undoubtably occur between now and then. The memory of the shutdown and it's impact will be greatly muted compared to as it was happening. The economic situation at the time is completely unknown. This is all on top of an electoral map strongly favored to Republicans maintaining the House.

Elections aren't on odd years, so what the polls say THIS November doesn't give us significant insight into what's going to happen NEXT november...especially something as significant as a major reversal in the House.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

Does it explain why an ABC/Post poll says the same thing, or worse?

I bet we're going to get into "the polls are lying meme" that conservatives did right before their last electoral debacle. Perfect!

But can we get into the whole "Democrats are sounding awfully like Republicans in 2011 that were damn certain Obama was going to be defeated in the upcoming election"?
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

Agree completely.

Forgive me, but getting worked up about a polling organizations whose highly questionable methods skew left and whose poll is funded by MoveOn.org, that is done in the middle of the "controversy" happening a YEAR away from election, isn't something I'm apt to do.

I put far more stock in the Analysis of someone like Nate Silver over PPP. If the election was TODAY I'd wager there was a reasonable shot to see the Republicans lose the House. But we're a year away. Multiple "crises" will undoubtably occur between now and then. The memory of the shutdown and it's impact will be greatly muted compared to as it was happening. The economic situation at the time is completely unknown. This is all on top of an electoral map strongly favored to Republicans maintaining the House.

Elections aren't on odd years, so what the polls say THIS November doesn't give us significant insight into what's going to happen NEXT november...especially something as significant as a major reversal in the House.

I'd even be skeptical about an election held today, despite resounding unpopularity for the status-quo of the entire legislative branch, and Republicans specifically.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.

Reason enough. But of course various polls have come out since then from unbiased sources reaching the same conclusion.

You're really going to have to persist in the libral media conspiracy meme, aren't you. Take that all the way to the next election, just like Romney did! Perfect.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.

Yes, only geniuses vote Republican....yep, no misinformed voters there. Because there really is a huge difference between Romneycare and Obamacare!
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues


I wouldn't get too happy when the polls refer to generics. Charlie Cook who makes his living forecasting elections does so district by district and he has the safe/solid seats as 199 republican and 165 Democrats. There are now 12 Democratic seats in the likely column vs. 16 republican seats. Likely means these seats are not considered competitive, but might become so later. Then there is the lean columns, 14 democratic seat vs. 16 republican seats - Lean means these seats are competitive but one party has the advantage. Looks good so far maybe, perhaps? Now the toss ups according to Cook, 10 democratic held seats are in this column while only 2 republican held seats. toss up is a 50-50 shot.

Larry Sabato who also does this for a living has roughly the same thing.

I am not saying it, the democrats taking over the house won't happen. But even today the odds of that happening are very long. Considering the Republican advantage in safe seats of 34, the house IMO looks pretty safe Republican. If you total up all the non-competitive seats in the House today, the Republicans have a 215-179 advantage. That means of the remaining 42 seats, the Democrats would have to win 39.

These numbers are based going district by district and not generic anything. You can check out either Charlie Cook's site or Larry Sabato's to find out each pretty much match. But there is a long time between today and the election more than a year away. Strange things happen at times, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I wouldn't get too happy when the polls refer to generics. Charlie Cook who makes his living forecasting elections does so district by district and he has the safe/solid seats as 199 republican and 165 Democrats. There are now 12 Democratic seats in the likely column vs. 16 republican seats. Likely means these seats are not considered competitive, but might become so later. Then there is the lean columns, 14 democratic seat vs. 16 republican seats - Lean means these seats are competitive but one party has the advantage. Looks good so far maybe, perhaps? Now the toss ups according to Cook, 10 democratic held seats are in this column while only 2 republican held seats. toss up is a 50-50 shot.

Larry Sabato who also does this for a living has roughly the same thing.

I am not saying it, the democrats taking over the house won't happen. But even today the odds of that happening are very long. Considering the Republican advantage in safe seats of 34, the house IMO looks pretty safe Republican. If you total up all the non-competitive seats in the House today, the Republicans have a 215-179 advantage. That means of the remaining 42 seats, the Democrats would have to win 39.

These numbers are based going district by district and not generic anything. You can check out either Charlie Cook's site or Larry Sabato's to find out each pretty much match. But there is a long time between today and the election more than a year away. Strange things happen at times, but I wouldn't bet on it.

well i guess we will wait and see how the election in Virgina will turn out.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

well i guess we will wait and see how the election in Virgina will turn out.

Howdy, I have no doubt McAuliffe will win. Virginia has been trending Democrat for a long time and is probably closer to Maryland in their party politics than the old south which once they were. Same is going on in North Carolina and in my home state of Georgia. Hagan looks like almost a shoe in to keep her seat in NC as of today and believe it or not, I would give Michelle Nunn an 50-50 shot of taking Georgia's senate seat next year. There are plenty of us old foggies who loved her daddy, Sam Nunn. If she take the right stand on a couple of key issues for us Georgian's like her daddy did, we would most certainly return another Nunn to the Senate. Especially if Broun is her opposition.
 
Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.

I promise I'll donate to the Ted Cruz primary campaign. I hope you guys get your real conservative.
 
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