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Thread: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues To

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony60 View Post
    The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

    Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.
    Yes, only geniuses vote Republican....yep, no misinformed voters there. Because there really is a huge difference between Romneycare and Obamacare!


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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    I wouldn't get too happy when the polls refer to generics. Charlie Cook who makes his living forecasting elections does so district by district and he has the safe/solid seats as 199 republican and 165 Democrats. There are now 12 Democratic seats in the likely column vs. 16 republican seats. Likely means these seats are not considered competitive, but might become so later. Then there is the lean columns, 14 democratic seat vs. 16 republican seats - Lean means these seats are competitive but one party has the advantage. Looks good so far maybe, perhaps? Now the toss ups according to Cook, 10 democratic held seats are in this column while only 2 republican held seats. toss up is a 50-50 shot.

    Larry Sabato who also does this for a living has roughly the same thing.

    I am not saying it, the democrats taking over the house won't happen. But even today the odds of that happening are very long. Considering the Republican advantage in safe seats of 34, the house IMO looks pretty safe Republican. If you total up all the non-competitive seats in the House today, the Republicans have a 215-179 advantage. That means of the remaining 42 seats, the Democrats would have to win 39.

    These numbers are based going district by district and not generic anything. You can check out either Charlie Cook's site or Larry Sabato's to find out each pretty much match. But there is a long time between today and the election more than a year away. Strange things happen at times, but I wouldn't bet on it.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I wouldn't get too happy when the polls refer to generics. Charlie Cook who makes his living forecasting elections does so district by district and he has the safe/solid seats as 199 republican and 165 Democrats. There are now 12 Democratic seats in the likely column vs. 16 republican seats. Likely means these seats are not considered competitive, but might become so later. Then there is the lean columns, 14 democratic seat vs. 16 republican seats - Lean means these seats are competitive but one party has the advantage. Looks good so far maybe, perhaps? Now the toss ups according to Cook, 10 democratic held seats are in this column while only 2 republican held seats. toss up is a 50-50 shot.

    Larry Sabato who also does this for a living has roughly the same thing.

    I am not saying it, the democrats taking over the house won't happen. But even today the odds of that happening are very long. Considering the Republican advantage in safe seats of 34, the house IMO looks pretty safe Republican. If you total up all the non-competitive seats in the House today, the Republicans have a 215-179 advantage. That means of the remaining 42 seats, the Democrats would have to win 39.

    These numbers are based going district by district and not generic anything. You can check out either Charlie Cook's site or Larry Sabato's to find out each pretty much match. But there is a long time between today and the election more than a year away. Strange things happen at times, but I wouldn't bet on it.
    well i guess we will wait and see how the election in Virgina will turn out.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    well i guess we will wait and see how the election in Virgina will turn out.
    Howdy, I have no doubt McAuliffe will win. Virginia has been trending Democrat for a long time and is probably closer to Maryland in their party politics than the old south which once they were. Same is going on in North Carolina and in my home state of Georgia. Hagan looks like almost a shoe in to keep her seat in NC as of today and believe it or not, I would give Michelle Nunn an 50-50 shot of taking Georgia's senate seat next year. There are plenty of us old foggies who loved her daddy, Sam Nunn. If she take the right stand on a couple of key issues for us Georgian's like her daddy did, we would most certainly return another Nunn to the Senate. Especially if Broun is her opposition.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratrooper View Post
    I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.
    I promise I'll donate to the Ted Cruz primary campaign. I hope you guys get your real conservative.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Howdy, I have no doubt McAuliffe will win. Virginia has been trending Democrat for a long time and is probably closer to Maryland in their party politics than the old south which once they were. Same is going on in North Carolina and in my home state of Georgia. Hagan looks like almost a shoe in to keep her seat in NC as of today and believe it or not, I would give Michelle Nunn an 50-50 shot of taking Georgia's senate seat next year. There are plenty of us old foggies who loved her daddy, Sam Nunn. If she take the right stand on a couple of key issues for us Georgian's like her daddy did, we would most certainly return another Nunn to the Senate. Especially if Broun is her opposition.
    on a unrelated note montana's senate race is starting to take shape, state rep champ edmunds is making signals he might stay in the running for the republican primary, even if Representative Steve Daines announces decides to run for the senate nomination, and the reason he gives is Daines's vote to raise the debt ceiling and end the government shutdown.

    Missoula legislator Edmunds might stay in U.S. Senate race

    montana is a funny state, it's portrayed as a red state, but it elects democrats to the senate, including the legendary Mike Mansfield who was senate majority leader for 17 years.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    well i guess we will wait and see how the election in Virgina will turn out.
    How the VA gubernatorial elections go has little real impact and provides very little input into how the nation goes a year later. Especially considering that Cuccinelli was behind McAuliffe even before teh shut down. Futhermore, the Government Shutdown is likely to have a disproportionately greater impact to Virginia than to the vast majority of the rest of the country both in terms of the fervor over it currently AND the likelihood of it being on peoples mind a year from now. I'm really unsure how the election relates to next years House elections in any way that would cause you to mention it.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    on a unrelated note montana's senate race is starting to take shape, state rep champ edmunds is making signals he might stay in the running for the republican primary, even if Representative Steve Daines announces decides to run for the senate nomination, and the reason he gives is Daines's vote to raise the debt ceiling and end the government shutdown.

    Missoula legislator Edmunds might stay in U.S. Senate race

    montana is a funny state, it's portrayed as a red state, but it elects democrats to the senate, including the legendary Mike Mansfield who was senate majority leader for 17 years.
    Now Mansfield was an icon and the senate could use him today. I always liked John Tester too. Walsh I understand will be the Democratic nominee or candidate. Does his position as Lt. Gov give him an advantage of any potential GOP nominee? I think it might. North Dakota is a lot like Montana, votes Republican presidential overwhelming and then sends Democrats to the senate. Certainly not like the south.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Now Mansfield was an icon and the senate could use him today. I always liked John Tester too. Walsh I understand will be the Democratic nominee or candidate. Does his position as Lt. Gov give him an advantage of any potential GOP nominee? I think it might. North Dakota is a lot like Montana, votes Republican presidential overwhelming and then sends Democrats to the senate. Certainly not like the south.
    and what about thad cochran's recent primary challenger? any oppinion on him.

    i don't think the democrats have a chance at taking Mississippi senate seat, (if doubt if there is any democratic party in Mississippi), but i think thad Cochran is still a better choice then anyone to his right.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    and what about thad cochran's recent primary challenger? any oppinion on him.

    i don't think the democrats have a chance at taking Mississippi senate seat, (if doubt if there is any democratic party in Mississippi), but i think thad Cochran is still a better choice then anyone to his right.
    Whats crazy is that longer term projections of deep south and other deep red states have them turning purple. Hell some are saying Texas goes purple by 2020.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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