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Thread: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues To

  1. #11
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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Paratrooper View Post
    I say we let the Liberals bask in their smugness. When the GOP decides to run a real conservative and stop putting RINOs up, then you will see less conservatives sitting out on election day and you will find out how much of this country is conservative.
    Please. Ronald Reagan would get called a RINO these days.
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    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    The polls keep getting worse for the GOP. They seem to be in full panic mode after the debt ceiling fiasco. It's not like they weren't warned. What dopes.

    Post-Shutdown Polls Find Americans Angry, GOP Majority Potentially Vulnerable


    The aftermath of the government shutdown leaves the public angry and profoundly anti-incumbent, according to two polls released Tuesday morning, which confirm that Americans lay much of the blame for the ordeal on the GOP.

    Just over 80 percent disapprove of the shutdown, a Washington Post/ABC poll finds, and wide majorities say it has damaged the United States' economy, its image abroad, and the morale of federal employees. Even more -- 87 percent -- say it's indicative of broader problems in Washington.

    Other gauges of the national mood bear out that pessimism. Only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track, the lowest number since 2011, and down 8 points from July. Just 23 percent are satisfied with how the political system is working.

    Congressional approval is at a miserable 12 percent in the Post/ABC poll, its lowest point in 39 years. More Americans disapprove than approve of their own representative for the first time in at least 24 years. In a USA Today/Princeton Survey Research Associates poll, 47 percent of Americans say Congress would be improved if every member were voted out, while just 4 percent think it would be worse.

    While the 2014 elections remain more than a year away, and much in the political landscape could change before that time, the polls present a potentially troubling picture for Republicans.

    "Those findings are similar to the public's views in previous years when voter dismay cost one side or the other control of the House," USA Today's Susan Page writes. "In 1994, when Democrats lost their majority, 40% said Congress would be better off if most members were replaced. In 2006, when Republicans lost control, 42% held that view."

    In the Post/ABC poll, 48 percent of registered voters said they would prefer to vote for a Democratic House candidate, while 40 percent would vote for a Republican, although those numbers are unchanged from a May survey.

    President Barack Obama, congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans all get negative ratings for their handling of the budget negotiations. A record high 63 percent of Americans view the Republican Party unfavorably, up 10 points since Sept. 30, the day before the shutdown. The Democratic Party's unfavorable rating also stands at a record high of 49 percent, a 7-point increase from Sept. 30.

    The GOP, however, takes the bulk of blame for the shutdown In the Post/ABC poll, a 53 percent majority of Americans blame Republicans more for the shutdown, while 29 percent blame Obama more. In the USA Today/PSRA poll, which asked about the two parties, 39 percent blame Republicans more, and 19 percent primarily blame Democrats.

    While Obama's ratings have declined fairly steadily since his second inauguration, his approval in this poll stands at 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproving -- essentially unchanged from his standing this summer (though other polls have found a somewhat steeper decline). Approval for his implementation of the health care law has actually increased 7 points since mid-September, with most of the improvement coming from those who formerly expressed no opinion.

    "The survey highlights just how badly the GOP hard-liners and the leaders who went along with them misjudged the public mood," the Post's Dan Balz and Scott Clement write, referring to the Republican push to defund Obamacare that led to the budget impasse.

    The results line up with polls taken during the shutdown, such as one that put the Republican Party's favorability at a record low, and a poll released yesterday by CNN that found a majority of Americans think it's bad for the country that Republicans control the House.

    The Post/ABC poll surveyed 1,002 Americans, while the USA Today/PSRA poll surveyed 1,001 Americans. Both were conducted between Oct. 17 and Oct. 20, using live telephone interviews.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    From the op:

    The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.
    Says it all.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    From the op:



    Says it all.
    Does it explain why an ABC/Post poll says the same thing, or worse?

    I bet we're going to get into "the polls are lying meme" that conservatives did right before their last electoral debacle. Perfect!

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    I sincerely doubt it will happen this soon. If this mentality keeps up, this is perhaps the start of the overestimation of reach that plagued Republicans last time around and what plagued Democrats after 2003.
    Agree completely.

    Forgive me, but getting worked up about a polling organizations whose highly questionable methods skew left and whose poll is funded by MoveOn.org, that is done in the middle of the "controversy" happening a YEAR away from election, isn't something I'm apt to do.

    I put far more stock in the Analysis of someone like Nate Silver over PPP. If the election was TODAY I'd wager there was a reasonable shot to see the Republicans lose the House. But we're a year away. Multiple "crises" will undoubtably occur between now and then. The memory of the shutdown and it's impact will be greatly muted compared to as it was happening. The economic situation at the time is completely unknown. This is all on top of an electoral map strongly favored to Republicans maintaining the House.

    Elections aren't on odd years, so what the polls say THIS November doesn't give us significant insight into what's going to happen NEXT november...especially something as significant as a major reversal in the House.

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by head of joaquin View Post
    Does it explain why an ABC/Post poll says the same thing, or worse?

    I bet we're going to get into "the polls are lying meme" that conservatives did right before their last electoral debacle. Perfect!
    But can we get into the whole "Democrats are sounding awfully like Republicans in 2011 that were damn certain Obama was going to be defeated in the upcoming election"?
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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Agree completely.

    Forgive me, but getting worked up about a polling organizations whose highly questionable methods skew left and whose poll is funded by MoveOn.org, that is done in the middle of the "controversy" happening a YEAR away from election, isn't something I'm apt to do.

    I put far more stock in the Analysis of someone like Nate Silver over PPP. If the election was TODAY I'd wager there was a reasonable shot to see the Republicans lose the House. But we're a year away. Multiple "crises" will undoubtably occur between now and then. The memory of the shutdown and it's impact will be greatly muted compared to as it was happening. The economic situation at the time is completely unknown. This is all on top of an electoral map strongly favored to Republicans maintaining the House.

    Elections aren't on odd years, so what the polls say THIS November doesn't give us significant insight into what's going to happen NEXT november...especially something as significant as a major reversal in the House.
    I'd even be skeptical about an election held today, despite resounding unpopularity for the status-quo of the entire legislative branch, and Republicans specifically.
    Michael J Petrilli-"Is School Choice Enough?"-A response to the recent timidity of American conservatives toward education reform. https://nationalaffairs.com/publicat...-choice-enough

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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

    Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.
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    Re: Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony60 View Post
    The absolute and only reason for this poll is for the left to have something to point to when they start their campaign to get the idea out there that the democrats could win the House. Otherwise, they have no basis for their claim. The poll is a complete sham, we would never hear about it if the result was that dems had no chance, and they would keep doing it over and over until they tweeked it enough to get the result that they need. It is for the highly valued, low information voter (LIV).

    Without the LIV, the left would not have even the slightest chance at controlling anything. They need to throw out little blurbs to get into the collective heads of this large block of voters. They need them thinking A) Wow, Dems must be doing something right if they have a chance and B) I am not going to bother casting a vote today for the republican, since it is a waste.
    Reason enough. But of course various polls have come out since then from unbiased sources reaching the same conclusion.

    You're really going to have to persist in the libral media conspiracy meme, aren't you. Take that all the way to the next election, just like Romney did! Perfect.

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