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Thread: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

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    Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Outside of the federal government's Bureau of Labor statistics, the Gallup polling organization also tracks the nation's unemployment rate. While the BLS and Gallup findings might not always perfectly align, the trends almost always do and the small statistical differences just haven't been worthy of note. But now Gallup is showing a sizable 30 day jump in the unemployment rate, from 7.7% on July 21 to 8.9% today.

    At the end of July, the BLS showed a 7.4% unemployment rate, compared to Gallup's 7.8%. Again, a difference not worthy of note. But Gallup's upward trend to almost 9% in just the last three weeks is alarming, especially because this is not a poll with a history of wild swings due to statistical anomalies. Gallup's sample size is a massive 30,000 adults and the rolling average is taken over a full 30 day period.
    Gallup also shows an alarming increase in the number of underemployed (those with some work seeking more). During the same 30-day period, that number has jumped from 17.1% to 17.9%.


    Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?


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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?
    Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

    Anyhow, I am not even sure you are wrong. I just wanted to say one thing to this...
    The only people I know of personally that have had their hours cut recently were affected by the Sequester. (3 people)

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by Painter View Post
    Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

    Anyhow, I am not even sure you are wrong. I just wanted to say one thing to this...
    The only people I know of personally that have had their hours cut recently were affected by the Sequester. (3 people)
    Your sample size is not even worth mentioning

    90% of the jobs being created are part time jobs. People graduating college with massive student loans aren't getting the careers they used to thanks to Obama and the Democrats

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    [/FONT][/COLOR]

    Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?

    Ummm ... you're comparing seasonal with non-seasonal data. Non-seasonal data has a propensity for jumping.

    Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is 1 percentage point. ~ Gallup

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Ummm ... you're comparing seasonal with non-seasonal data. Non-seasonal data has a propensity for jumping.

    Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is 1 percentage point. ~ Gallup
    Actually that's not what it means in this case. Gallup does not poll seasonal workers (kids in the workforce) like BLS does, so their number is a more accurate reflection of the adult population's employment status. Go to the BLS website and look at Table A for the month of July. It says 7.4% seasonally adjusted, and then keep reading each line item above and below that. Notice that in July alone, 37,000 people gave up and took themselves out of the workforce. There are other interesting facts in that table that are not reflected in the official BLS number. If Gallup's number didn't matter, they wouldn't take the time to do a daily poll.

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by Painter View Post
    Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.
    Yeah, I've seen a number of policies built on the assumption that businesses do not plan for next year. They have an unfortunate tendency to fail to produce the predicted results...

    Businesses absolutely factor in future costs to current investment (including in people). Not to do so invites death.

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    [/FONT][/COLOR]

    Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?

    That is certainly different from the media take and if true, will make it difficult for the FED to tighten. But the size of reduction in government spending has to take a toll.

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Food stamp stimulus is really working well, uh? LOL.

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by Beaudreaux View Post
    Actually that's not what it means in this case. Gallup does not poll seasonal workers (kids in the workforce) like BLS does, so their number is a more accurate reflection of the adult population's employment status. Go to the BLS website and look at Table A for the month of July. It says 7.4% seasonally adjusted, and then keep reading each line item above and below that. Notice that in July alone, 37,000 people gave up and took themselves out of the workforce. There are other interesting facts in that table that are not reflected in the official BLS number. If Gallup's number didn't matter, they wouldn't take the time to do a daily poll.
    Umm ... the BLS also tracks 8 years and up. That's just not the official unemployment rate. Factor out 16-7 year olds, and the unemployment rate drops, according to BLS data.

    At any rate, like it or not, the BLS and not Gallup is the official source for these stats.

    Like it or not, Gallup does not use the same standards as the BLS and there's no data to indicate that Gallup is more accurate.

    Like it or not, Gallup's non-seasonal data includes college students leaving their summer jobs to return to school.

    Like it or not, even Gallup admits their data cannot be compared to the BLS's data.

    Like it or not, no matter how much y'all fish for the highest unemployment rate figures you can find, the official unemployment rate is 7.4%. 5% lower than when Obama started.

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    Re: Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

    Quote Originally Posted by Painter View Post
    Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.
    Businesses with less than 50 employees didn't get any extension. There are about 4.5 million of them.
    There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences.
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