For one thing, the example in the proposed regulations uses the word “average,” which means that the “cheapest” plan could, in fact, be lower than $20,000. But more important, the regulations weren’t a “cost analysis” at all. A spokesperson for the Treasury Department confirmed to factcheck.org in an email that the IRS wasn’t making any declarations or projections about what prices will be.
“[Twenty thousand dollars] is a round number used by IRS for a hypothetical example,” the official wrote. “It is not an estimate of premiums for a bronze plan for a family of five in 2016.”
So far, no one knows exactly how much insurance plans on the exchanges will cost. The health care law only mentions “actuarial values” for the four tiers of coverage — in other words, how much of an insured person’s health care costs a plan is expected to cover. Bronze plans are to cover at least 60 percent of costs; silver plans will cover 70 percent. Gold plans will cover 80 percent, and platinum plans will cover 90 percent of the costs. In each case, the remaining percentage is left to the insured to pay through deductibles, copayments and coinsurance.
In January 2010, before the Affordable Care Act became law, the Congressional Budget Office projected that, in 2016, premiums for bronze plans would, on average, cost “between $12,000 and $12,500 for family policies.” That estimate has not been updated since.
About how much are families paying now?
Most recently, the average annual premium for employer-sponsored coverage for a family of four reached $15,745 in 2012 — up 4 percent from 2011 — according to a survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research & Educational Trust. On average, workers paid $4,316 toward the cost of their coverage, while employers covered the remainder