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Thread: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

  1. #11
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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    Federal spending went up from 20% of GDP to 24% of GDP in 2008/9, basically doubling the federal deficit. We are now gradually increasing taxes (now at 17% of GDP) but not nearly enough to catch up with the spending increases. Nobody is proposing that we increase federal taxation to 24% of GDP, or that we reduce federal spending back to 20% of GDP. At no point is the Obama budget ever going to "balance". Talk of trimming the defict by $1 trillion over a decade (basically a 10% cut) is also the same as saying we will increase the national debt by over $8 trillion in that same decade (instead of $9 trillion), it simply sounds better to spin it as a defict reduction plan.
    And that is the root of the problem. GDP spending/revenue gap is not closing fast enough, if at all.

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    So I ran my own comparison of the CCPI-U and the CPI-W to see what the difference in SS COLA would be. Using the same methodology used by Social Security (change in 3Q average from last year COLA was given) from 2000 to 2013, the CPI-W grew 5% more than the CCPI-U. 5% over 12 years.... average of 0.3 percentage points difference with a high of 0.7 percantage points (2 years) and 0 difference (2 years). A lot of money on the aggregate, but not a large impact on an individual.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  3. #13
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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    So I ran my own comparison of the CCPI-U and the CPI-W to see what the difference in SS COLA would be. Using the same methodology used by Social Security (change in 3Q average from last year COLA was given) from 2000 to 2013, the CPI-W grew 5% more than the CCPI-U. 5% over 12 years.... average of 0.3 percentage points difference with a high of 0.7 percantage points (2 years) and 0 difference (2 years). A lot of money on the aggregate, but not a large impact on an individual.
    Unless, of course, your rent/utility/food costs go up more than the lower COLA adjustment. Many living on fixed incomes will then qualify to get "offsets", via the many forms of federal/state "low income" assistance programs, which then nullify much of the "savings" projected by the SS CPI formula change.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    Unless, of course, your rent/utility/food costs go up more than the lower COLA adjustment. Many living on fixed incomes will then qualify to get "offsets", via the many forms of federal/state "low income" assistance programs, which then nullify much of the "savings" projected by the SS CPI formula change.
    Sure, but that's where creative accounting enters the picture. Fed/State low income assistance programs (which not everyone qualified for will apply for) versus the savings to Social Security. Different funding, different buckets, etc.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Sure, but that's where creative accounting enters the picture. Fed/State low income assistance programs (which not everyone qualified for will apply for) versus the savings to Social Security. Different funding, different buckets, etc.
    Might be different buckets, but the pockets are the same.
    Building block or stumbling block.... choose.

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Sure, but that's where creative accounting enters the picture. Fed/State low income assistance programs (which not everyone qualified for will apply for) versus the savings to Social Security. Different funding, different buckets, etc.
    Exactly. Different voters. What Obama is doing is explaining the "fairness" of increasing overall federal spending by 6% and yet reducing that "given to" elderly SS recipients. The effect is largely the same as means testing SS, since only the bottom income SS folks see little "net" change. The demorats usually come up short on the elderly vote anyway so it costs them nothing to cut SS/Medicare as long as it gets some republicant votes making it a "bipartisan" deal. Obama still will assert that he "must" cut SS to get (trick?) the republicants into allowing more taxation of "the rich". That takes the "sting" out of claims that Obama will not cut "entitlements" while still allowing overall federal spending to increase.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    So I ran my own comparison of the CCPI-U and the CPI-W to see what the difference in SS COLA would be. Using the same methodology used by Social Security (change in 3Q average from last year COLA was given) from 2000 to 2013, the CPI-W grew 5% more than the CCPI-U. 5% over 12 years.... average of 0.3 percentage points difference with a high of 0.7 percantage points (2 years) and 0 difference (2 years). A lot of money on the aggregate, but not a large impact on an individual.
    Sure...year 1 year 2 year 3 any senior won't be able to feel a large difference. The problem is the difference is compounded the longer they live. The longer someone lives they deplete more of their savings. It's a double whammy...10 years of retirment and you start getting low on your actual savings and Social Security is getting out paced by inflation.

    Also there's the fact that seniors don't generally purchase goods that you can substitute. A senior living on Social Security isn't buying steak they are paying rent/mortgage with that SS money. They aren't going on trips they are paying medical expenses. The CPI-E (I believe that's the measure) that takes into account what seniors actually spend their money on actually outpaces the regular CPI.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Sure...year 1 year 2 year 3 any senior won't be able to feel a large difference. The problem is the difference is compounded the longer they live. The longer someone lives they deplete more of their savings. It's a double whammy...10 years of retirment and you start getting low on your actual savings and Social Security is getting out paced by inflation.
    That's assuming the CCPI understates inflation when there's no reason to assume that.

    Also there's the fact that seniors don't generally purchase goods that you can substitute. A senior living on Social Security isn't buying steak they are paying rent/mortgage with that SS money. They aren't going on trips they are paying medical expenses. The CPI-E (I believe that's the measure) that takes into account what seniors actually spend their money on actually outpaces the regular CPI.
    True, but the problem with the CPI-E is that the sample size for determining weights is tiny...less than 20% of the consumer units in the Consumer Expenditure Survey qualify for the CPI-E. And the shopping outlets will be different too.

    Basically, the CPI-E is a great idea, but not accurate and would be too expensive to get any decent accuracy.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  9. #19
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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    That's assuming the CCPI understates inflation when there's no reason to assume that.
    .
    Well it's lower based on the idea of substitution. For a middle income family substitutions probably occurs I just think it's reasonable to assume that when you're talking about a lot of soon to be seniors (have very little to no savings) they already substituted down when they retired.

    True, but the problem with the CPI-E is that the sample size for determining weights is tiny...less than 20% of the consumer units in the Consumer Expenditure Survey qualify for the CPI-E. And the shopping outlets will be different too.

    Basically, the CPI-E is a great idea, but not accurate and would be too expensive to get any decent accuracy.
    Sure I'm not saying it should be fixed to the CPI-E but it's useful barometer for what expenses are like for seniors compared to the regular CPI. If the CPI-E always rises at the rate higher than the regular CPI it's an indication that Seniors are getting hit by specific costs that outpace inflation. We pretty much know that medical costs for seniors is a huge deal and that it has outpaced inflation for awhile now.

    Honestly I think if cuts to SS benefits are taking place the benefits should be cut up front and increase over time as spendings are exhausted and medical costs increase.

    Edit: Not to mention there would be higher savings.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Outraged Liberals Say Obama Is About To Screw Over The People Who Got Him Elected

    Every journey begins with a single step.

    While this change will not solve all of our problems, it is a start. Every change of every kind will meet resistance from some. Personally, I would do something more drastic but I'm not President (yet).

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