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Gas Prices Jump Nearly 25 Cents In Last 2 Weeks

obvious Child said:
MMC, and Bonzai

You do realize that oil prices are more impacted by future events rather than current ones no? For instance, terrorists bomb a Saudi oil platform. That oil would take months to get to market after shipping and refining, but oil prices spike now for oil sitting in the gas station you just pulled up to. The attack on an Armaco platform has no impact upon the actual cost of existing oil. But it does affect prices now. Bonzai is right that the US and other nations are sitting on large inventories. But the Iranian situation doesn't look like it will be getting resolved any time soon and the increasing demand from India and China is driving future prices up. Seems to me that those affect prices well more then anything right now.
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Yeah, I think that's why I had up the piece with CNN and how Policy affects such.
 
I would surmise that since Iran has been under some kind of oil "sanctions" since the late 70's that Iranian oil, after 40+ years of said sanctions, while important to some nations, is no longer playing such a pivotal role in the world........................
 
MMC said:
Yeah, I think that's why I had up the piece with CNN and how Policy affects such.
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Well, the only real policy that is seriously impacting world oil is Iranian Sanctions. We have removed a huge amount of daily production being pumped into the global market. Sure some countries are still getting Iranian oil, but it's not properly priced in. You can't realistically blame Obama for high gas prices and want to prevent Iran from getting nukes at the same time. Obama could lower gas prices immensely by just calling off Iranian sanctions. Sure India and China demand is there along with seasonal changes, but that is the 800 lb Gorilla.

Finding additional oil reserves in the US won't change oil prices like the immediate end of Iranian oil sanctions. Furthermore, remember that large amounts of US hydrocarbons are only extractable under high prices. So as prices decline, those deposits start to leave the equation as they aren't worth getting.

Well, there is ONE thing Obama could do that would help oil prices materially: Assassinate Chavez. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. Replacing him with a weak candidate who loses an election, gets replaced with the opposition who then undoes the nationalization Chavez did and foreign investment piles back in and production ramps up. Venezuelan production is cratering under Chavez for obvious reasons.
 
Bonzai said:
I would surmise that since Iran has been under some kind of oil "sanctions" since the late 70's that Iranian oil, after 40+ years of said sanctions, while important to some nations, is no longer playing such a pivotal role in the world........................
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Sorta of. Iran has been under relatively weak US sanctions for trade. Europe still did a lot of export/imports with them and the US had firms bypass the laws (sometimes illegally) and do work. Halliburton got caught operating in Iran through a subsidiary. The legality is in question there.

These new sanctions are different though. Essentially it prevents Iran from accessing the global banking system. Meaning they cannot essentially get paid for oil. And as oil is the vast majority of exports and revenue for the Iranian government, it's hugely different. Before, Iran could sell oil to pretty much anyone who didn't partake in the US sanctions, which was pretty much everyone but the US. So the global markets priced it in. It's possible that if the US 5th Fleet bought oil from Bahrainian refineries, it was burning Iranian fuel as Bahrain was one of the major refinery places for Iran. On that note, Iran has a funny economy where they export most of their oil in crude and then have to import refined oil.
 
obvious Child said:
Well, the only real policy that is seriously impacting world oil is Iranian Sanctions. We have removed a huge amount of daily production being pumped into the global market. Sure some countries are still getting Iranian oil, but it's not properly priced in. You can't realistically blame Obama for high gas prices and want to prevent Iran from getting nukes at the same time. Obama could lower gas prices immensely by just calling off Iranian sanctions. Sure India and China demand is there along with seasonal changes, but that is the 800 lb Gorilla.

Finding additional oil reserves in the US won't change oil prices like the immediate end of Iranian oil sanctions. Furthermore, remember that large amounts of US hydrocarbons are only extractable under high prices. So as prices decline, those deposits start to leave the equation as they aren't worth getting.

Well, there is ONE thing Obama could do that would help oil prices materially: Assassinate Chavez. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. Replacing him with a weak candidate who loses an election, gets replaced with the opposition who then undoes the nationalization Chavez did and foreign investment piles back in and production ramps up. Venezuelan production is cratering under Chavez for obvious reasons.
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The problem with Venezuela, if you ever been there, isn't Caesar Chavez, "Yankee" capitalists, or socialism, it's the Venezuelan people...............They're idiots....................
 
Bonzai said:
The problem with Venezuela, if you ever been there, isn't Caesar Chavez, "Yankee" capitalists, or socialism, it's the Venezuelan people...............They're idiots....................
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In what way, Bonz?
 
Bonzai said:
The problem with Venezuela, if you ever been there, isn't Caesar Chavez, "Yankee" capitalists, or socialism, it's the Venezuelan people...............They're idiots....................
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To a degree yes. But I think it's less pronounced then you say. For instance, Chavez's latest victory margin was tiny compared to his last run and he poured billions of dollars into the poor places. I think people there are more liking him because of the welfare state he created rather than his anti-American policies. And the opposition came close to evicting Chavez. While some of them aren't particular fans of the US, they aren't fans of his Socialism. We merely need to get an anti-nationalization president into Venezuela.

The real answer to cheaper oil prices lies outside the US. Any real conservation we do in America will get eaten by growth in China and India.

On a side note, I'm actually for the Keystone XL pipeline now. But for the sole reason that exporting to Asia will expose massive amounts of US fisheries and forests to Valdez kinds of problems. Make no mistake, the oil will get exported. The question is where to and across where. Risking Northwest fisheries and tourism worth billions of dollars when we can pipeline down through the US (with changes to avoid the major water sheds) is stupid.
 
obvious Child said:
Well, the only real policy that is seriously impacting world oil is Iranian Sanctions. We have removed a huge amount of daily production being pumped into the global market. Sure some countries are still getting Iranian oil, but it's not properly priced in. You can't realistically blame Obama for high gas prices and want to prevent Iran from getting nukes at the same time. Obama could lower gas prices immensely by just calling off Iranian sanctions. Sure India and China demand is there along with seasonal changes, but that is the 800 lb Gorilla.

Finding additional oil reserves in the US won't change oil prices like the immediate end of Iranian oil sanctions. Furthermore, remember that large amounts of US hydrocarbons are only extractable under high prices. So as prices decline, those deposits start to leave the equation as they aren't worth getting.

Well, there is ONE thing Obama could do that would help oil prices materially: Assassinate Chavez. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. Replacing him with a weak candidate who loses an election, gets replaced with the opposition who then undoes the nationalization Chavez did and foreign investment piles back in and production ramps up. Venezuelan production is cratering under Chavez for obvious reasons.
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I agree with most of what you said. Good assessment. As you know the Sanctions in the 70s and up until now didn't really affect Iran before.....now it does. I didn't think of assassinating Chavez.....but I was thinking of if we could get someone in there to work with.

Also I think that any President looking at regulations can do something to affect the price of gas. Course I think we need some more refineries and built better. Which don't include alternatives energy sources.

Another point is.....I wouldn't give drilling Rights to any other country in our own backyard, not before any American Companies.
 
polgara said:
In what way, Bonz?
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They tend to be rabidly antiAmerican in this warlike sort of way.............Which is just downright strange coming from a people and a country that I, personally, couldn't care less about........................................
 
MMC said:
I agree with most of what you said. Good assessment. As you know the Sanctions in the 70s and up until now didn't really affect Iran before.....now it does. I didn't think of assassinating Chavez.....but I was thinking of if we could get someone in there to work with.

Also I think that any President looking at regulations can do something to affect the price of gas. Course I think we need some more refineries and built better. Which don't include alternatives energy sources.

Another point is.....I wouldn't give drilling Rights to any other country in our own backyard, not before any American Companies.
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Inside info: There's alot more money to be made from peddling petroleum byproducts than refining them...............You just think everyone thinks like you---in the long term. Wrong..........................
 
Pisses me off personally. Thing is I have not found a way to change it and my comute is pretty direct as it is without much more driving at all. So if you can't do anything about the added fuel cost find a way to cut the same amount somewhere else. I know it sounds simplistic but it is what I've had to do and it works. In the end it is about your total costs, and being ticked off about a cost you can't control over a long period just isn't good for you. Try reducing the cost of your home utilities by the amount of your fuel cost increase. Thing is in the past week fuel went up 10 cents a gallon. Reeeaally pissed me off too until I realized that this week that was going to cost me an extra...... dollar. So at lunch today I just got the sandwich without the fries. I'm good, back on budget. I've spent a lot of time pissed off about things like this that are in the end nothing, it's not worth it.
 
Jack Hays said:
Build the Keystone XL pipeline.:usflag2:
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Just not in areas where it could contaminate the water table for billions in agriculture and drinking water.

Makes no sense to build a pipeline that isn't going to change oil prices much that ruins huge amounts of American Agriculture and then costs billions to fix.
 
Bonzai said:
They tend to be rabidly antiAmerican in this warlike sort of way.............Which is just downright strange coming from a people and a country that I, personally, couldn't care less about........................................
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Perhaps it feels safer to them to agree with their leader, at least in public?
 
MMC said:
I agree with most of what you said. Good assessment. As you know the Sanctions in the 70s and up until now didn't really affect Iran before.....now it does. I didn't think of assassinating Chavez.....but I was thinking of if we could get someone in there to work with.
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Sort of. Iran kind of screwed on its military because of the sanctions. But hardly enough to bring the country down.

Also I think that any President looking at regulations can do something to affect the price of gas. Course I think we need some more refineries and built better. Which don't include alternatives energy sources.
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Well, the problems with refineries is that they are horribly expensive and refinery margins are low. Economically speaking, it doesn't make sense for the oil industry to build more when they make very little on refineries. Estimates I remember seeing out of my old firm was that refinery margins were maybe 5% where extraction was easily into double digits. And building more refineries just adds more finished goods to the market which invariably will reduce prices at least a little. So with extremely high costs, low margins and potential for even lower margin, it's a dud. Last I checked, it's a couple billion to build a refinery. The payback alone on that with 5% margin is pretty long.

Estimated 2013 Gasoline Price Breakdown & Margins Details

Jan 07' was 4.9% margin on refinery products. But that includes refinery costs as well as profits so it may be significantly lower than that. Crude is the big one in the retail price.

Honestly, the only way I see refineries being built in the US is if the US government basically owns it. Its a terrible use of capital for the oil industry otherwise.

Another point is.....I wouldn't give drilling Rights to any other country in our own backyard, not before any American Companies.
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Meh. I honestly don't care about. We're already exporting refined oil products as our #1 export. If BP does it over Exxon, it doesn't change that.
 
obvious Child said:
Just not in areas where it could contaminate the water table for billions in agriculture and drinking water.

Makes no sense to build a pipeline that isn't going to change oil prices much that ruins huge amounts of American Agriculture and then costs billions to fix.
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I would agree with you if any of your allegations had a basis in fact. Luckily for us all, they do not.:bomb::flames:
 
polgara said:
Perhaps it feels safer to them to agree with their leader, at least in public?
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Then the ghost of Ceasar Chavez was pulling the strings long before he was elected....................
 
Jack Hays said:
I would agree with you if any of your allegations had a basis in fact. Luckily for us all, they do not.:bomb::flames:
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Are you aware of the precipitous drop in the Right's credibility due to it's early on claim that many of Obama's "problems" were inherently due to the size of Moochelle's butt ? ...........Just Asking..................
 
Jack Hays said:
I would agree with you if any of your allegations had a basis in fact. Luckily for us all, they do not.:bomb::flames:
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Keystone XL pipeline may threaten aquifer that irrigates much of the central U.S. - Washington Post

Try again. Republican Governors came out against Keystone for this very reason. And they were right about protesting it.

Nebraska's governor urged U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday to block TransCanada's planned Keystone oil pipeline from Alberta to the Gulf Coast, saying it could hurt a regional water source.
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http://insideclimatenews.org/news/2...sands-pipeline-obama-clinton-ogallala-aquifer

The firm behind the pipeline does not have a good record in their native Canada. And that aquifer is vital.
 
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obvious Child said:
Keystone XL pipeline may threaten aquifer that irrigates much of the central U.S. - Washington Post

Try again. Republican Governors came out against Keystone for this very reason. And they were right about protesting it.



Republican Nebraska Governor Asks Obama to Nix Keystone Pipeline | InsideClimate News

The firm behind the pipeline does not have a good record in their native Canada. And that aquifer is vital.
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Your data and your links are out of date. The route has been altered and the Governor of Nebraska has endorsed the pipeline.:cool:
 
Jack Hays said:
Your data and your links are out of date. The route has been altered and the Governor of Nebraska has endorsed the pipeline.:cool:
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With the caveat that no one has "sailed" to Asia in 70 years, you do realize how stupid Fox News looked reporting on the supposed Obama flotilla to India a few years back ? You are still capable of such things as "reflection" ?...........................
 
Bonzai said:
With the caveat that no one has "sailed" to Asia in 70 years, you do realize how stupid Fox News looked reporting on the supposed Obama flotilla to India a few years back ? You are still capable of such things as "reflection" ?...........................
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And what does that have to do with this discussion?:eek:t
 
Bonzai said:
Inside info: There's alot more money to be made from peddling petroleum byproducts than refining them...............You just think everyone thinks like you---in the long term. Wrong..........................
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I never argued that there wasn't so your point is? Course not only was I looking at long term but what could be done in the short term. Moreover I don't think everyone thinks like me.....but please do try and tell me what I will think of next. As I don't mind shattering crystal balls.
 
Jack Hays said:
And what does that have to do with this discussion?:eek:t
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Good question. Maybe you should contact a moderator. Afterall, your modus operandi is "bootlicking".............just saying...............
 
obvious Child said:
Sort of. Iran kind of screwed on its military because of the sanctions. But hardly enough to bring the country down.



Well, the problems with refineries is that they are horribly expensive and refinery margins are low. Economically speaking, it doesn't make sense for the oil industry to build more when they make very little on refineries. Estimates I remember seeing out of my old firm was that refinery margins were maybe 5% where extraction was easily into double digits. And building more refineries just adds more finished goods to the market which invariably will reduce prices at least a little. So with extremely high costs, low margins and potential for even lower margin, it's a dud. Last I checked, it's a couple billion to build a refinery. The payback alone on that with 5% margin is pretty long.

Estimated 2013 Gasoline Price Breakdown & Margins Details

Jan 07' was 4.9% margin on refinery products. But that includes refinery costs as well as profits so it may be significantly lower than that. Crude is the big one in the retail price.

Honestly, the only way I see refineries being built in the US is if the US government basically owns it. Its a terrible use of capital for the oil industry otherwise.



Meh. I honestly don't care about. We're already exporting refined oil products as our #1 export. If BP does it over Exxon, it doesn't change that.
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Yeah I don't care about BP. Whole different ballgame when one gives those Rights to China. Iran put themselves into the position they are in. So I wont worry about which part of the Ruling Elite there was doing whatever.

Yeah I am sure the costs wouldn't be favoring companies for the structures.

Also with this last round of sanctions on Iran.....I really don't know where else they can go with more on them.
 
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