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Thread: IMF Officials: We Were Wrong About Austerity

  1. #11
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    Re: IMF Officials: We Were Wrong About Austerity

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsnade View Post


    <The Congressional Budget Office estimated that because of the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate has been lower each year since 2009 than it otherwise would have been. CBO estimates that in the third quarter of 2012 the unemployment rate was 0.1 to 0.5 percentage points lower than it otherwise would have been and employment was between 0.2 million and 0.9 million jobs greater than it otherwise would have been.>

    Stick that $45 billion In now and watch the jobs take off.
    By the looks of your chart, unemployment would be only slightly higher today if we had spent zero dollars on stimulus. Yet we spent $900,000,000,000. But you have to look at government spending as a whole. We already are spending more than $100 billion per month more than we are taking in. Everyone, even you I presume, believes that if we stop spending that extra money we dont have each month we would go right back into recession. That tells me that the recovery we have is not real but reliant totally uponborrowing an debt. That is not sustainable. And the idea that if only we inject another $45 billion into the economy this year we will achieve economic nirvana strikes me as a bit unrealistic. Look at it this way, the president just raised taxes by $60 billion per year. That is $60 billion taken out of the economy. Putting $45 billion back in wont even get us back to where we were. The US economy is just too big to be impacted, one way or the other, by $45 billion.

  2. #12
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    Re: IMF Officials: We Were Wrong About Austerity

    Quote Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
    By the looks of your chart, unemployment would be only slightly higher today if we had spent zero dollars on stimulus. Yet we spent $900,000,000,000. But you have to look at government spending as a whole. We already are spending more than $100 billion per month more than we are taking in. Everyone, even you I presume, believes that if we stop spending that extra money we dont have each month we would go right back into recession. That tells me that the recovery we have is not real but reliant totally uponborrowing an debt. That is not sustainable. And the idea that if only we inject another $45 billion into the economy this year we will achieve economic nirvana strikes me as a bit unrealistic. Look at it this way, the president just raised taxes by $60 billion per year. That is $60 billion taken out of the economy. Putting $45 billion back in wont even get us back to where we were. The US economy is just too big to be impacted, one way or the other, by $45 billion.
    The extra unemployment would have cost us more money via benefits, but no, I do not believe that we would go back into a recession without the extra spending--I believe we are going into it with it. Time will tell. I do agree that $45B would be irrelevant stimulus to the size of our economy unless maybe you put it directly into the hands of people most likely to spend it on new goods and services (but even then any measurable change would be a flicker on the screen)

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