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Thread: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Excellent analysis Sir! Thank you.

    Quote Originally Posted by RLWSNOOK View Post
    They are integrated in that they both need to be decided at or around the same time, nothing more nothing less. We can pass a solution to one, none or both.

    Now are they just messing with us?

    No I don't think so, I honestly think both sides see this as a major issue and want to solve things their way.

    Is this a major crisis?

    It depends on what you mean by a major crisis. And know that there are many outcomes that could come out of this.
    1. We go over the fiscal cliff but pass a debt ceiling increase: this will likely result in a recession of negative 1.5-3.0% GDP growth. (Is this a crisis well remember what Regan said, "a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours"... so it depends on if you lose your job or not because of this).
    2. We don't go over the fiscal cliff but pass a debt ceiling increase: while this is likely the best short term fix and won't result in any recession and could even lead to economic growth, one must question if our markets will accept our ability to pay back our debt when we told them we would go over the cliff to justify more debt and removed that and then asked for more debt. This could lead us to a slow path of increased interest rates, meaning more debt (higher deficits as we would have bigger interest payments) and more issues.
    3. We go over the fiscal cliff but don't pass a debt ceiling increase: this will likely see the worst results, as we will get spending cuts tax increases and default on our payments of our national debt.. Which will lead to higher interest rates very quickly and the only way to fix this problem will be to print money, which will cause inflation.
    4. We don't go over the fiscal cliff and don't pass a debt ceiling increase: (very unlikely) however we will see a default of our payments, interest rates will quickly rise, and only way to fix this problem will to print money which will cause inflation.

    So I think it depends on what happens, there are 4 likely scenarios... If you think any of them are "major crisis's" are up to you to decide, however no matter what way you look at it, we are in a difficult situation. But the way I see things are, no matter what solution we pick, even if it is the most likely #2 it is kind of like a college student who hands in his papers late and asks the professor to accept them. It may work a few times, but at some time, they will not get credit for their work, and will fail... The credit for their work is what the markets see us doing to keep a sustainable national debt. Once markets no longer accept our work, our promises our solutions, we will see interest rates skyrocket which will cause interest payments to go up by likely around 500 billion a year, meaning deficits 500 billion a year more...

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    You ignore the huge cost of the ten's of thousands of maimed and wounded soldiers from the war. You ignore the money borrowed from our own SS trust funds to fight the unnecessary war. And most importantly you ignore the effects of the Bush recession on tax revenues. of which the CBO has testified before Congress that without the stimulus, the Recession would have been worse.

    Letting the tax cuts expire for the wealthy, together with the savings from Medicare, and an improved economy because of a stronger middle class will more than make up for the cost to extend the middle class tax cuts. To reduce the deficit, they will also eventually cut military spending as it is not feasible, sustainable, or necessary for the US to spend as much as the rest of the world combined on the military. The FICA cap will also have to be raised as we have done in the past.
    No I don't I overstated the cost... Cost of War to the United States | COSTOFWAR.COM Add the Iraq and Afghanistan war together, note you don't get 3 trillion.. Don't assume..

    Debt is debt it doesn't matter where it comes from... and if the money borrowed is not part of our national debt as it appears you are inferring, then obama has added more to our debt not less. But you can't count debt added twice by a war...

    Lets just assume that we grew tax revenues by 3% per year, (which is strong growth for the US) this time in 2008 we had taken in 2.53 Trillion for federal income taxes source: U.S. National Debt Clock 2008 so in 2009 we would have seen 2.6059; 2010 we would have seen 2.684; 2011 we would have seen 2.764; and 2012 we would have seen $2.848 T

    As of today we have seen 2.44 T in federal tax revenue... so 407 billion less than if we would have grown 3% every year which would have been very optimistic...

    So if we add in the total lost revenue assuming no recession and a really high growth rate for our country... we would account for 2.675 Trillion... Again your math doesn't add up, Obama added over 5.8T... although you appear to be claiming he added more and borrowed it from Social Security, not sure if that's true or not... but you are still missing a large large chunk of why our debt went up so much...

    Don't get me started on Medicare, as my wife is a doctor, or will be she graduates from med school this year... The savings via paying doctors less will mean doctors don't see the patients... So yes it's a savings as the patients won't have a doctor... Period, there isn't a doctor I've talked to who hasn't said that... They may see a few out of their own good will, but it will be at a loss to them, and it will be very hard to get an appointment.

    Now as to a stronger middle class that's a great theory, but we haven't seen it to date, we've seen the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... And your whole military spending, won't get cut as there are programs

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by specklebang View Post
    Excellent analysis Sir! Thank you.
    Thanks, but from our stand point that's only half the battle, now we have to figure out how to prepare for each and every one of those possible outcomes...

    I think times could be pretty ugly, but I'm an optimist, I look at people like warren buffet, he made his fortune off these kind of times. I made a ton of money off of 2008 in the stock market... If you figure out what to do, to best protect yourself and take advantage of the times you can come out of these hard times much better off than you went into them...

    But I'm still not sure fully what the best way to protect yourself will be...

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    I understand. I've been succeeding from other peoples failures and while that has been great for The SpeckleMan, it's heartbreaking for those who suffer.

    I've been buying up condos in my complex for not only for less than the debt owed, but far less than the replacement value. In 10 years, if America and Specklebang (or his heirs) are still around, I'll be getting a genius stamp.

    But just like stocks, every winner needs a loser. That is how it is but it doesn't feel like what should be. In better times, we could all be winners.


    Quote Originally Posted by RLWSNOOK View Post
    Thanks, but from our stand point that's only half the battle, now we have to figure out how to prepare for each and every one of those possible outcomes...

    I think times could be pretty ugly, but I'm an optimist, I look at people like warren buffet, he made his fortune off these kind of times. I made a ton of money off of 2008 in the stock market... If you figure out what to do, to best protect yourself and take advantage of the times you can come out of these hard times much better off than you went into them...

    But I'm still not sure fully what the best way to protect yourself will be...

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    I'll be letting you know how the Medicare scene goes because today I signed up for a PFFS Medicare Advantage plan. PFFS means there are NO network doctors, you have to convince the doctor to accept the Medicare rate and get paid in 30 days. Will anybody take this? Ha! I'll sure find out and I'll report back to this board with some real-life facts.

    I don't see a way out of this spending mess. Between real life and sacred cows, and a President who loves new programs and a (partial) Congress who worship the tax rates of the rich, sheesh, what a mess.



    Quote Originally Posted by RLWSNOOK View Post
    No I don't I overstated the cost... Cost of War to the United States | COSTOFWAR.COM Add the Iraq and Afghanistan war together, note you don't get 3 trillion.. Don't assume..

    Debt is debt it doesn't matter where it comes from... and if the money borrowed is not part of our national debt as it appears you are inferring, then obama has added more to our debt not less. But you can't count debt added twice by a war...

    Lets just assume that we grew tax revenues by 3% perI year, (which is strong growth for the US) this time in 2008 we had taken in 2.53 Trillion for federal income taxes source: U.S. National Debt Clock 2008 so in 2009 we would have seen 2.6059; 2010 we would have seen 2.684; 2011 we would have seen 2.764; and 2012 we would have seen $2.848 T

    As of today we have seen 2.44 T in federal tax revenue... so 407 billion less than if we would have grown 3% every year which would have been very optimistic...

    So if we add in the total lost revenue assuming no recession and a really high growth rate for our country... we would account for 2.675 Trillion... Again your math doesn't add up, Obama added over 5.8T... although you appear to be claiming he added more and borrowed it from Social Security, not sure if that's true or not... but you are still missing a large large chunk of why our debt went up so much...

    Don't get me started on Medicare, as my wife is a doctor, or will be she graduates from med school this year... The savings via paying doctors less will mean doctors don't see the patients... So yes it's a savings as the patients won't have a doctor... Period, there isn't a doctor I've talked to who hasn't said that... They may see a few out of their own good will, but it will be at a loss to them, and it will be very hard to get an appointment.

    Now as to a stronger middle class that's a great theory, but we haven't seen it to date, we've seen the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... And your whole military spending, won't get cut as there are programs

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by RLWSNOOK View Post
    No I don't I overstated the cost... Cost of War to the United States | COSTOFWAR.COM Add the Iraq and Afghanistan war together, note you don't get 3 trillion.. Don't assume..
    From your source, Cost of War: "The final bill will run at least $3.7 trillion and could reach as high as $4.4 trillion, according to the research project "Costs of War" by Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies. (www.costsofwar.org)"
    Cost of war at least $3.7 trillion and counting | Reuters

    Debt is debt it doesn't matter where it comes from... and if the money borrowed is not part of our national debt as it appears you are inferring, then obama has added more to our debt not less. But you can't count debt added twice by a war...

    Lets just assume that we grew tax revenues by 3% per year, (which is strong growth for the US) this time in 2008 we had taken in 2.53 Trillion for federal income taxes source: U.S. National Debt Clock 2008 so in 2009 we would have seen 2.6059; 2010 we would have seen 2.684; 2011 we would have seen 2.764; and 2012 we would have seen $2.848 T

    As of today we have seen 2.44 T in federal tax revenue... so 407 billion less than if we would have grown 3% every year which would have been very optimistic...

    So if we add in the total lost revenue assuming no recession and a really high growth rate for our country... we would account for 2.675 Trillion... Again your math doesn't add up, Obama added over 5.8T... although you appear to be claiming he added more and borrowed it from Social Security, not sure if that's true or not... but you are still missing a large large chunk of why our debt went up so much...

    Don't get me started on Medicare, as my wife is a doctor, or will be she graduates from med school this year... The savings via paying doctors less will mean doctors don't see the patients... So yes it's a savings as the patients won't have a doctor... Period, there isn't a doctor I've talked to who hasn't said that... They may see a few out of their own good will, but it will be at a loss to them, and it will be very hard to get an appointment.

    Now as to a stronger middle class that's a great theory, but we haven't seen it to date, we've seen the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... And your whole military spending, won't get cut as there are programs
    We saw it in the 40's to the 80s and again in the 90's. When tax rates for the wealthy were higher than today.

    "Summary

    Is President Obama’s spending an “inferno,” as Mitt Romney claims, or a binge that “never happened” as an analysis touted by the White House concluded? We judge that both of those claims are wrong on the facts.

    The truth is that the nearly 18 percent spike in spending in fiscal 2009 — for which the president is sometimes blamed entirely — was mostly due to appropriations and policies that were already in place when Obama took office."

    "It is the combination of historically high spending and low revenues that is producing the current string of trillion-dollar annual deficits, and piling up debt. Those who blame deficits solely on spending ignore the other side of the ledger."

    FactCheck.org : Obama’s Spending: ‘Inferno’ or Not?

    "on Wednesday, under questioning from skeptical Republicans, the director of the nonpartisan (and widely respected) Congressional Budget Office was emphatic about the value of the 2009 stimulus. And, he said, the vast majority of economists agree.

    In a survey conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 80 percent of economic experts agreed that, because of the stimulus, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been otherwise.

    “Only 4 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed,” CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee. “That,” he added, “is a distinct minority.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...jJV_story.html
    Last edited by Catawba; 12-04-12 at 10:47 PM.
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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by specklebang View Post
    I understand. I've been succeeding from other peoples failures and while that has been great for The SpeckleMan, it's heartbreaking for those who suffer.

    I've been buying up condos in my complex for not only for less than the debt owed, but far less than the replacement value. In 10 years, if America and Specklebang (or his heirs) are still around, I'll be getting a genius stamp.

    But just like stocks, every winner needs a loser. That is how it is but it doesn't feel like what should be. In better times, we could all be winners.
    Yeah I'm sorta thinking homes are good investments these days, Locking in a 30 year around the 3% rate is not stupid to do... But, I tend to think Farm land is a bit better of an investment than homes or condos... people need food... If things go poorly, they print money we get inflation and food prices go up (farm land is worth more)... If things get better food prices go up due to growth, (farm land is worth more)... No matter what really happens I think that farm land is a win win solution..> I'd highly recommend looking into it. But again I'm still trying to figure out timing...

    Quote Originally Posted by specklebang View Post
    I'll be letting you know how the Medicare scene goes because today I signed up for a PFFS Medicare Advantage plan. PFFS means there are NO network doctors, you have to convince the doctor to accept the Medicare rate and get paid in 30 days. Will anybody take this? Ha! I'll sure find out and I'll report back to this board with some real-life facts.

    I don't see a way out of this spending mess. Between real life and sacred cows, and a President who loves new programs and a (partial) Congress who worship the tax rates of the rich, sheesh, what a mess.
    Doctors will lose money seeing medicare patients if they make cuts like Obama says he wants to.. Sure these cuts are paid for... but there is no point to medicare if we don't pay doctors a fair wage, they shouldn't pay to work...

    As for how we get out of this mess, the thing is we need to restructure these programs so they are realistic... Social security is a retirement program, yet we don't invest the money that goes into it... Medicare 30 dollars is paid in and 100 dollars comes out..> We need to fix these two problems, it means either fewer benefits for the wealthy, or more taxes... But in terms of social security we could change the system, I'm not sure what the feasibility of changing medicare is...

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    From your source, Cost of War: "The final bill will run at least $3.7 trillion and could reach as high as $4.4 trillion, according to the research project "Costs of War" by Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies. (www.costsofwar.org)"
    Cost of war at least $3.7 trillion and counting | Reuters



    We saw it in the 40's to the 80s and again in the 90's. When tax rates for the wealthy were higher than today.

    "Summary

    Is President Obama’s spending an “inferno,” as Mitt Romney claims, or a binge that “never happened” as an analysis touted by the White House concluded? We judge that both of those claims are wrong on the facts.

    The truth is that the nearly 18 percent spike in spending in fiscal 2009 — for which the president is sometimes blamed entirely — was mostly due to appropriations and policies that were already in place when Obama took office."

    "It is the combination of historically high spending and low revenues that is producing the current string of trillion-dollar annual deficits, and piling up debt. Those who blame deficits solely on spending ignore the other side of the ledger."

    FactCheck.org : Obama’s Spending: ‘Inferno’ or Not?

    "on Wednesday, under questioning from skeptical Republicans, the director of the nonpartisan (and widely respected) Congressional Budget Office was emphatic about the value of the 2009 stimulus. And, he said, the vast majority of economists agree.

    In a survey conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 80 percent of economic experts agreed that, because of the stimulus, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been otherwise.

    “Only 4 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed,” CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee. “That,” he added, “is a distinct minority.”

    Congressional Budget Office defends stimulus - The Washington Post
    You do understand the wars have been going on longer than 4 years... You must divide the cost over 10 years... and only count that for the debt added under Obama... I used 3 trillion which is far more than most estimates of the cost of war to date...

    Again I'm saying that you can claim up to 35 ish % not 18%... so I'm far more liberal than you are even wanting me to be... (however I don't think all 35% can be blamed I'm just going to the extreme to show you how your numbers don't add up)...

    But even if you remove that 2.675 trillion from the debt we have added of the $5.8 trillion, even if you add in an extra trillion wiggle room, obama has still overseen a HUGE increase in our national debt, which can not be attributed to anyone but himself and his inability to balance a budget...

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    the House should pass a bill extending the tax rates for EVERYONE. the dishonest dems claimed that these tax rates only benefitted the rich when they were enacted 10 years ago. Now the same dishonest parasites are claiming that these rates are good for most people (but not those who actually are paying most of the FIT).
    The rich can afford to pay more; the middle-class and the poor cannot.

    BTW, I find it amusing to see a lawyer call someone else a parasite.

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    Re: GOP makes $2.2 Trillion Counteroffer to Obama - includes revenue increases

    Quote Originally Posted by Texmex View Post
    The rich can afford to pay more; the middle-class and the poor cannot.

    BTW, I find it amusing to see a lawyer call someone else a parasite.
    So where do you propose we cut from in terms of spending to pay for the middle class tax cut, note the fiscal cliff came about as we needed to pay for our debt ceiling increase or at least slow down the growth of our debt... (Note you can't say the wealthy people's taxes need to go up and they do under the fiscal cliff as that revenue is already accounted for...) do you want to cut social security medicare? where do you see room to cut?
    Last edited by RLWSNOOK; 12-04-12 at 11:10 PM.

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