I don't necessarily disagree in principal but my question stands; What makes people think this legislation will make the criminal networks currently supplying drugs disappear?
I predict one or two small ventures will establish the taxed, regulated and controlled legal businesses in the state but the vast majority of users either won't want (because it's inconvenient, expensive, poor choice, don't trust the government) or be able to (because it's too far away, they're under 21) to buy there. The criminal networks, with all the negatives that come with them, will still exist. They could even benefit, from greater public acceptance and reduced police resources aimed in their direction.
I don't pretend to have the answer. I just don't think this should be seen as some kind of end game magically solving all the problems. The idea that you can shift the laws around cannabis to be like those for alcohol or tobacco and the social structures around them will suddenly shift too is either naive or dishonest in the extreme.
If the legal sellers can sell for say 75% of the street price, they will have an expanding business.
How high could the cost of goods sold be on legal marijuana?
I suspect most of the current cost comes from it being an illegal business.
Think about Joe farmer, has farming equipment, Tractors, Plows, seeders, hay cutters and balers.
How much legal pot could one grow on a 40 acre field?
A low end modern wheat field can get 1800 lbs per acre, so a 40 acre field
could yield 72000 lbs. I bet there is a much higher yield from marijuana than wheat.
Current wheat prices are about 20 cents per pound, so I think it may be safe to say it costs
less than 20 cents per pound to grow wheat. I suspect it would be less for marijuana.
So the farmer sell his crop for $4.00 per pound in round bales, The 25% tax makes it $5.00 per pound.
The Distributor processes the marijuana, and sells the marijuana to retailers for $20 per pound.
($25 after his 25 % tax)
The retailer sells 1 ounce units at $10 each including his 25% tax of $2, grossing $128 per pound.
It looks like LOTS of room for profit, taxes, and still undercut the illegal trade.