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Thread: CBO: Obamacare to cost $1.76 Trillion over 10 years

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    Re: CBO: Obamacare to cost $1.76 Trillion over 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by UtahBill View Post
    you don't think the "free" market is screwing you financially?
    Its voluntary. I dont have to give them my money.

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    Re: CBO: Obamacare to cost $1.76 Trillion over 10 years

    I don't know why people are complaining about this. We're supposed to understand that this is for our own good no matter what it costs. I think.

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    Re: CBO: Obamacare to cost $1.76 Trillion over 10 years

    Meanwhile, all of our premiums have gone up. Thanks, President Butthead.

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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    Same topic was posted in another forum. The bottom line is that the new estimate actually predicts that the net cost of HCR will be $48 billion LOWER than previously estimated due to lower insurance cost and higher revenue projections.
    the $48 Bn loss is due to lower employment than originally projected, and the higher revenue projections are based on the same fallacious assumptions that produced the claim that we would be sitting on 6.5% unemployment today.

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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    the $48 Bn loss is due to lower employment than originally projected,
    So? A weaker economy will tend to raise the costs of MOST federal programs. This isn't something unique to the ACA.

    and the higher revenue projections are based on the same fallacious assumptions that produced the claim that we would be sitting on 6.5% unemployment today.
    You mean a misreading / overestimation of the current state of the economy? That may be possible, but there's really no way to know in advance, and it might just as easily be underestimating the current state of the economy. All the CBO can do is make the best estimates with the data they currently have.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    We have Obamacare, is that not the reform your speaking of, or are you suggesting we need to repeal Obamacare and start over? If it's the latter I agree.
    Congress care didn't reform the health care system, it simply transferred cost with a few good previsions. Real health care reform would start with the overhaul our abolishment of insurance companies.

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    The taxpayers pay for 800bn a year in medical care. Im a taxpayer. Thus Im paying for someone elses medical care.
    In his example you aren't paying for it which was my point



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    Last edited by xpiher; 03-16-12 at 12:36 AM.
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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    You mean a misreading / overestimation of the current state of the economy? That may be possible, but there's really no way to know in advance, and it might just as easily be underestimating the current state of the economy. All the CBO can do is make the best estimates with the data they currently have.
    That's the point. That's why conservatives only care about the gross cost estimates. They recognize that revenue projections in 2021, and consequently "deficit savings", are completely unreliable. Frankly the fact that the CBO predicts it will "save" an extra $48 billion over the next 10 years is irrelevant in comparison to the projection it will cost an extra $822 billion.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    That's the point. That's why conservatives only care about the gross cost estimates. They recognize that revenue projections in 2021, and consequently "deficit savings", are completely unreliable.
    So you're suggesting that there is no predictive value whatsoever in CBO estimates? I agree that they don't have a crystal ball and their numbers are likely to be off...sometimes by quite a bit depending on the program. But the estimates still have value in informing the relative scale of the changes.

    Frankly the fact that the CBO predicts it will "save" an extra $48 billion over the next 10 years is irrelevant
    I would agree with that. $48 billion is just noise...a better way to phrase it is to say that the numbers essentially have not changed since last year and the prediction is still on track.

    in comparison to the projection it will cost an extra $822 billion.
    There is no such projection. As I mentioned earlier, this "extra" cost simply comes from the fact that we're one year closer to the provisions actually taking effect in 2014, so they're eliminating a year from the ten-year estimate (2011) in which they were not in effect and adding a year (2022) in which they are. Obviously that's going to increase the ten-year cost; it's nothing surprising or unanticipated. The CBO's report acknowledges as much.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 03-16-12 at 01:40 AM.
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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    So you're suggesting that there is no predictive value whatsoever in CBO estimates? I agree that they don't have a crystal ball and their numbers are likely to be off...sometimes by quite a bit depending on the program. But the estimates still have value in informing the relative scale of the changes.
    To say they have zero predictive value would be a little hard on the kind folks over at the CBO. I mean, after all, they did project a $5.610 trillion surplus through fiscal year 2011 in 2002. The reality is that projecting economic growth rates 10-years into the future is literally impossible.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    There is no such projection. As I mentioned earlier, this "extra" cost simply comes from the fact that we're one year closer to the provisions actually taking effect in 2014, so they're eliminating a year from the ten-year estimate (2011) in which they were not in effect and adding a year (2022) in which they are. Obviously that's going to increase the ten-year cost; it's nothing surprising or unanticipated. The CBO's report acknowledges as much.
    Yes, I understand. That was the point of the article and a point I clearly acknowledged in my previous post. That is why when the President said the program would cost $900 billion over 10 years he was being terribly misleading. It would take 3 years just to know what the 10 year cost will be.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: New CBO health law estimate shows much higher spending past first 10 years

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    To say they have zero predictive value would be a little hard on the kind folks over at the CBO. I mean, after all, they did project a $5.610 trillion surplus through fiscal year 2011 in 2002. The reality is that projecting economic growth rates 10-years into the future is literally impossible.
    The failings of that prediction have less to do with an overestimation of economic growth (although that was part of it), and more to do with not predicting what future Congresses would do. In January 2001 the CBO didn't include the deficit-exploding changes of the Bush tax cuts, 9/11, the Afghanistan War, the Iraq War, cleaning up Hurricane Katrina, annual Medicare doc fixes, economic stimuli, TARP, or plenty of other things. And I would argue that it was perfectly reasonable NOT to include those things, since the CBO had no idea that they were going to happen. The CBO's $5.6 trillion surplus projection was based solely on the policies that were already in place when they made that prediction in January 2001; $5.6 trillion would have been an overestimate anyway, but not nearly as much. It isn't fair to blame the CBO for not predicting the behavior of future Congresses.

    Yes, I understand. That was the point of the article and a point I clearly acknowledged in my previous post. That is why when the President said the program would cost $900 billion over 10 years he was being terribly misleading. It would take 3 years just to know what the 10 year cost will be.
    No, this is not correct. At the time the Affordable Care Act was passed, the CBO actually issued projections for the first ten years and the second ten years. Every year in the current projection (2012-2022) had an estimate at the time the law was passed...which were generally pretty similar to the current estimates. There wasn't any waiting involved to the discover the 10-year cost. The CBO just prefers to break its predictions up into 10-year chunks, but they predicted more years into the future than that.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 03-16-12 at 02:25 AM.
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