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U.S. Unemployment Up in February

Ockham

Ockham

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Gallup said:
PRINCETON, NJ -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December. The 0.5-percentage-point increase in February compared with January is the largest such month-to-month change Gallup has recorded in its not-seasonally adjusted measure since December 2010, when the rate rose 0.8 points to 9.6% from 8.8% in November. A year ago, Gallup recorded a February increase of 0.4 percentage points, to 10.3% from 9.9% in January 2011. In addition to the 9.1% of U.S. workers who are unemployed, 10.0% are working part time but want full-time work. This percentage is similar to the 10.1% in January, but is higher than the 9.6% of February 2011.

As a result, Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed and the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, increased to 19.1% in February from 18.7% in January. This is an improvement from the 19.9% of February 2011.


Looking Ahead to the Government's Unemployment Report
The February unemployment rate the U.S. government reports on Friday morning will be based largely on mid-month conditions. In mid-February, Gallup reported that its U.S. unemployment rate had increased to 9.0% from 8.3% in mid-January. The mid-month reading normally provides a relatively good estimate of the government's unadjusted unemployment rate for the month. Assuming the government's unadjusted rate increases -- from its 8.8% in January -- to at least match Gallup's mid-month measurement for February, then the government should also report an increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February. If the government's unadjusted unemployment rate increases to the degree that Gallup's has from mid-month to mid-month, then the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could show an even larger increase.


...

Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a substantial deterioration since mid-January. In this context, the increase in unemployment as measured by Gallup may, at least partly, reflect growth in the workforce, as more Americans who had given up looking for work become slightly more optimistic and start looking for work again. So while there may be positive signs, the reality Gallup finds is that more Americans are looking for work now than were doing so just six weeks ago.
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U.S. Unemployment Up in February

At best this is a mixed bag of results so far this year. While some encouraging news is the underemployed seem to be venturing out to look for work, the unadjusted rates of unemployment increased. It will be interesting to compare Gallup's numbers against the Government reported numbers.
 
Economy,

Y U NO RECOVER????
 
So now that the official rate is falling, the conservatives are starting to quote a private poll companies work as the "gospel" ?
 
PeteEU said:
So now that the official rate is falling, the conservatives are starting to quote a private poll companies work as the "gospel" ?
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You're joking right? Do you even have a tiny sliver of non-hackery left in you?
 
I find it depressing when either side roots for the economy to tank because they feel it will give their "team" an advantage.
 
American said:
You're joking right? Do you even have a tiny sliver of non-hackery left in you?
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I aint the one quoting some poll companies work before the official unemployment numbers are out later today, and then claiming that unemployment is rising.. that is partisan hackery at its worse.
 
Helix said:
I find it depressing when either side roots for the economy to tank because they feel it will give their "team" an advantage.
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Its only the GOP that has been doing that since 2008. Before that they were high on greed and propaganda so they did not see the damage their failed economic policies had done not only to the US but the world.
 
PeteEU said:
Before that they were high on greed and propaganda so they did not see the damage their failed economic policies had done not only to the US but the world.
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How's that Greece thing working out?
 
PeteEU said:
So now that the official rate is falling, the conservatives are starting to quote a private poll companies work as the "gospel" ?
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The gallop is no partisan.... and you never answered Perfect Storm's question. How's Greece?
 
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I am a little confused about what I see presented in the news constantly. Seems the like I am always seeing how many new jobs were created. Of course if more jobs were lost than created then what good is that news. I see this emphasis on jobs created as trying to put the best light on things for Obama.
 
PeteEU said:
Its only the GOP that has been doing that since 2008. Before that they were high on greed and propaganda so they did not see the damage their failed economic policies had done not only to the US but the world.
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the other side has done it, too; think '92 and '08. running against the opposition party on an economy platform is more effective when the economy is getting worse.

unfortunately, there are a lot of real world consequences when an economy slows, and i'd hate to see us dip again.
 
The title of this thread is misleading. Official unemployment is released by the BLS not Gallup. The unemployment rate (U3) remain unchanged in February while the LFPR and employment-population ratio edged higher to 63.9 and 58.6 respectively. This was an interesting release as it showed improvement in the labor force with the headline rate unchanged as U6 fell to 14.9%.

Employment Situation Summary
 
Ockham said:
U.S. Unemployment Up in February

At best this is a mixed bag of results so far this year. While some encouraging news is the underemployed seem to be venturing out to look for work, the unadjusted rates of unemployment increased. It will be interesting to compare Gallup's numbers against the Government reported numbers.
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I'm not surprised. Holiday employment is obviously finished. I'm glad it didn't go down even farther.
 
Ockham said:
U.S. Unemployment Up in February

At best this is a mixed bag of results so far this year. While some encouraging news is the underemployed seem to be venturing out to look for work, the unadjusted rates of unemployment increased. It will be interesting to compare Gallup's numbers against the Government reported numbers.
Click to expand...
Gallup's poll is on-the-spot, so when they poll in mid-February it's for right then, not some weeks in the past.

The govt's BLS report is always nearly a month behind. What this means is that the govt report we got this morning is really for the period of the second week in January through the first week in February, and thus doesn't cover mid-February.

When the OP quoted article says that this morning's govt report will reflect mostly "mid-month" conditions, that's simply untrue with respect to February, and many article writers on the topic are really doing the public an information disservice by not doing their homework on the nature of the govt report.

So Gallup says that at mid-Feb the seasonally unadjusted rate was at 9.0% and the govt report received today says "most of January", in effect, was 8.7% seasonally unadjusted.

The govt report we receive in early April will be for the second week of February through the first week of March, and it will be interesting to see then if the govt report we get in early April will come closer to the the mid-February Gallup poll.
 
Ontologuy said:
Gallup's poll is on-the-spot, so when they poll in mid-February it's for right then, not some weeks in the past.

The govt's BLS report is always nearly a month behind. What this means is that the govt report we got this morning is really for the period of the second week in January through the first week in February, and thus doesn't cover mid-February.

When the OP quoted article says that this morning's govt report will reflect mostly "mid-month" conditions, that's simply untrue with respect to February, and many article writers on the topic are really doing the public an information disservice by not doing their homework on the nature of the govt report.

So Gallup says that at mid-Feb the seasonally unadjusted rate was at 9.0% and the govt report received today says "most of January", in effect, was 8.7% seasonally unadjusted.

The govt report we receive in early April will be for the second week of February through the first week of March, and it will be interesting to see then if the govt report we get in early April will come closer to the the mid-February Gallup poll.
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It's all in how the government decides to skim the calculation... unemployment % is all in how it's calculated - which has changed over the years.

http://www.mint.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/unemploymentratemint2.jpg
 
Ockham said:
It's all in how the government decides to skim the calculation... unemployment % is all in how it's calculated - which has changed over the years.

http://www.mint.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/unemploymentratemint2.jpg
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HAHAH now the government "skim the calculation" after years of the right not complaining under Bush when many people said the unemployment number was rubbish, but now that there is a black democrat in the White House, the very same numbers are manipulated and so on... classic right wing spin and denial.

Listen, you cant one year claim that the number is fact and then the next year when your guy is not in office any more, claim the real number is much higher and the official number which you were backing just a year earlier is now all of a sudden rubbish... who do the US right think they are... Marie Antoinette?

Bunch of hypocrites I say.
 
American said:
Improve relative to what? It's insufficient at best. Drop unemployment 0.1% or so is not noteworthy in the least.
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Relative to the cluster**** of a mess your guy left the economy... or are you forgetting the 700k losses a month that Bush was responsible for?
 
PeteEU said:
Relative to the cluster**** of a mess your guy left the economy... or are you forgetting the 700k losses a month that Bush was responsible for?
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I am forgetting them, because Obama's numbers aree so bad that the make Bush look like a fiscal conservative.
 
Sparky said:
The gallop is no partisan.... and you never answered Perfect Storm's question. How's Greece?
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Actually...you are wrong. Gallup tends to lean conservative. There was a study conducted a few years back (unfortunately i cant find it on google). Gallup phoned conservatives at a rate of 2/1. They didn't call cell phones only landlines. People that use landlines tend to be elderly, and we all know how the elderly vote.
 
Amigo said:
I am forgetting them, because Obama's numbers aree so bad that the make Bush look like a fiscal conservative.
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You are in complete denial of the conservative parties role in this economic meltdown. Does Obama hold any blame? certainly. Could anyone have done a better job? Probably not. Obama has actually accomplished quite a bit in 3 years, probably more compared to quite a few of our recent presidents. Just because he has a congress who refuses to work with him on any legislation he favors, doesn't give you the right to claim his policies are failing. You want a leader? Follow. In order to be lead you need to be willing to follow, not b**tch and moan every time you don't get your way, thats not how America's political system works. It works through comprimise and bi-partisan deals behind closed doors. The establishment GOP is at a lost of how to fuction anymore because of the damage the tea party has done to your party. You will be quite surprised how great of a president Obama really is when he gets re-elected in November. Hopefully, they will throw out all the teabagger crazies so real goals can be accomplished in our United States government.
 
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