One has to consider the time frames of the oil contracts. The vast majority of speculators do not want to have delievery of the oil. The close the oil contract comes to the present date, the less speculation is going on. The spot price will have very little speculation, as the majority of bidders are those that want and need the oil for actual productive uses.
As the most publicized oil prices are the spot prices, future production will have little impact as it is oil that will not be avaliable for years to come