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Thread: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

  1. #81
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    Re: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    When I see proof of the societal collapse in Europe then I will provide proof of it in the US.. and no, Greeks rioting over something aint proof, they do that all the time even before the crisis.
    Ask and you shall receive. This is one of my favorite economic teachers, Bill Mitchell.

    "When expenditure is increasing, the average country-year unit of observation in our data registers less than 1.5 events. When expenditure cuts reach 1% or more of GDP, this grows to nearly 2 events, a relative increase by almost a third compared to the periods of budget expansion. As cuts intensify, the frequency of disturbances rises. Once austerity measures involve expenditure reductions by 5% or more, there are more than 3 events per year and country — twice as many as in times of expenditure increases."

    I blame the British government for the riots | Bill Mitchell – billy blog
    My blog, where I talk latest news on economics and some other issues.

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    OpportunityCost's Avatar
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    Re: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by JP Hochbaum View Post
    Ask and you shall receive. This is one of my favorite economic teachers, Bill Mitchell.

    "When expenditure is increasing, the average country-year unit of observation in our data registers less than 1.5 events. When expenditure cuts reach 1% or more of GDP, this grows to nearly 2 events, a relative increase by almost a third compared to the periods of budget expansion. As cuts intensify, the frequency of disturbances rises. Once austerity measures involve expenditure reductions by 5% or more, there are more than 3 events per year and country — twice as many as in times of expenditure increases."

    I blame the British government for the riots | Bill Mitchell – billy blog
    What part of not having the money aren't you getting? Austerity measures arent the problem, idiot legislatures and idiot voters that put them into office and the runaway spending policies they enacted are the problem. If they had made level headed expenditures in the first place, austerity measures wouldnt be needed.

    A social safety net is not meant to be a hammock. Get over it.

  3. #83
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    Re: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by JP Hochbaum View Post
    Ask and you shall receive. This is one of my favorite economic teachers, Bill Mitchell.

    "When expenditure is increasing, the average country-year unit of observation in our data registers less than 1.5 events. When expenditure cuts reach 1% or more of GDP, this grows to nearly 2 events, a relative increase by almost a third compared to the periods of budget expansion. As cuts intensify, the frequency of disturbances rises. Once austerity measures involve expenditure reductions by 5% or more, there are more than 3 events per year and country twice as many as in times of expenditure increases."

    I blame the British government for the riots | Bill Mitchell billy blog
    So the UK has a riot because of police stupidity against a minority and society is collapsing?

    Okay based on this, then the US has been in societal collapse since the LA Riots over Rodney King.

    As for this economist and his views. They are valid but far from all encumbsing nor are they mind boggling.

    First off, instability in society always happens when there is an economic downturn. This can be seen in racist attacks and the rise of far right nationalistic groups. It is nothing new. Hitler came to power because of economic instability in the world, also brought on by in large part.. the US.. and of course their failed war.. but still.

    But saying that it is because of austerity is a tad rich because in no way can he factor out the economic downturn aspect from any results. The only way he can confirm this theory is by some government cutting spending during boom years, and that rare happens as we all know. Most governments run on deficits, usually minor.

    So what I am saying, he can claim that the riots in the UK and Greece are because of austerity measures, but he leaves out other alternative reasons. For example, the riot in the UK was not because of austerity, but was started because of the police ****ing up a case involving a black man. Maybe he can explain why there was no riots under the former government who also had austerity measures? Could it maybe be that the common factor of the riots in the UK is... the Tory party and their policies? If you actually look at a list of British riots (not counting prison riots), then there is an over weight of riots during Tory governments... hmmmz.

    And as for Greece.. here too he has a big problem. There were riots all the time before the crisis. Usually between anarchist students and police, but they were there.

    And then there is Portugal, Italy and Spain.. countries hit by broad austerity measures, and yet no riots or unrest? How does he explain that?
    PeteEU

  4. #84
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    Re: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    And you, like many Americans fail to understand the problem.
    If I wind you back up, will you say something else?

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    They have cut huge chunks out of the budget, but the problem is the tax system. When 60%+ of the population avoids to pay full taxes then you have a problem that is far far far far larger than "too much spending". It is in principle the same problem some what you have in the US... too much spending and not enough income. Now you can cut and cut and cut, but if the income falls as well because people cheat on their taxes (or in the US case you cut taxes) then cutting spending does not do jack to the over all deficit. Now in Greece the cutting has been so harsh that they are projected to have a primary surplus this year, which means they would have a surplus if they did not have debt repayments.
    I never placed the blame on too much spending vs not enough taxation. I'm not a fan of huge government spending, but if they were going to do it, the Greeks could have set up a more effective tax system. This argument sounds no different than the laffer curve arguments that I keep hearing. It might make a difference in income, but probably not enough to offset the need for more revenue.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    For example, doctors have had 33% of their wages gutted and now get 1700 euros a month in wages. This can be felt .. you try to go down 33% in your wages overnight and see how that fairs. Prices and rent after all dont go down... And this happened across the public sector and private sectors with the bankers and rich not feeling much pain what so ever and still not paying their taxes. There was a story about a Greek business woman who was busted for avoiding almost 100 million Euros in back taxes.. and she was one of many who owed such large sums. She is of course now claiming she is bankrupt so ....
    I understand that it is painful, but bond markets are a tad less sympathetic. Perhaps the Greek government should have raised sufficient revenue and kept its promises reasonable in light of what it could actually afford.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    You can claim the Greeks brought this on themselves, but remember this.. the Greek people were lied too by the very same right wing politicians that used US financial institutions to hide debt from the EU and the world and caused this cluster**** we see now... and these politicians and bankers have gotten off scot free... so far.. in fact the politicians almost got back in power in Greece..
    Like I said, who is responsible does not change the basic fact that Greece can not afford their current fiscal path. They need to cut spending, raise more revenue, or some combination of the two.
    Last edited by DrunkenAsparagus; 02-12-12 at 02:45 PM.
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  5. #85
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    Re: Austerity leads to higher death rates.

    @ Pete, I never mentioned societal collapse (unless I somehow got drunk and forgot), I am simply stating that bad economic conditions lead to more chaotic type events. So let's discuss the same goal posts here please.

    Running on deficits doesn't mean they are spending more, it also means they are receiving few taxes.

    The whole point is that austerity in recessions only makes things worse, that is obvious. And so it is logically consistent that it makes societies far less stable.
    Last edited by JP Hochbaum; 02-12-12 at 05:01 PM.
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