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Thread: Just Plain Wrong

  1. #741
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Sure it is. if we take one SD, what is the percentage chance of a 'non-normal' occurance? 33%
    The high and low ends of the curve are not equivalent to each other, so they can't be lumped together as a single "occurrence".



    5% = statistically significant. Look it up. Don't confuse it with p-value.
    False.

    How about a wager. Why don't you look it up and then post some solid academic evidence that "statistically significant" means "5% of a population". If you can actually find that mythical thing, I'll donate $100 to the forum in your name. If you can't find this mythical thing, all you have to do is admit your error.

    Deal?

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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Have you taken a statistics class before? Depending on the subject of what you're testing, p < 1%, p < 5%, or p < 10% could all qualify as statistically significant. Anything over 10% is statistically insignificant, because the chances of the event happening by chance are far too great to be deemed different than than the control.

    That's statistics. I'm not sure if a statistics definition is what you should be looking for in a homosexuality debate, though... I thought the fact that it happens naturally across virtually all species in the animal kingdom, not just humans, was pretty strong evidence of homosexuality's normality. People should keep in mind that "rare" and "abnormal" are not the same thing.

    It is possible for something to be both normal and rare.

  3. #743
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by Tucker Case View Post
    Ultimately, it's an arbitrary point where "normality" is defined.

    Using the method you described, color-blindness qualifies as "normal" since the colorblind population exceeds 5% of the total population. But color-blindness is something most people would consider an abnormality.
    In this case, it's less about numbers and more about perception.
    “In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.” -Napoleon

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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by Tucker Case View Post
    The high and low ends of the curve are not equivalent to each other, so they can't be lumped together as a single "occurrence".





    False.

    How about a wager. Why don't you look it up and then post some solid academic evidence that "statistically significant" means "5% of a population". If you can actually find that mythical thing, I'll donate $100 to the forum in your name. If you can't find this mythical thing, all you have to do is admit your error.

    Deal?

    Oh and this is from Wikipedia. I could have just as easily pulled it from a stat textbook if I still had one on me. I suppose I should have let him look it up himself...but whatever. You probably weren't going to donate the 100 bucks anyways.

    "The significance level is usually denoted by the Greek symbol α (lowercase alpha). Popular levels of significance are 10% (0.1), 5% (0.05), 1% (0.01), 0.5% (0.005), and 0.1% (0.001). If a test of significance gives a p-value lower than the significance level α, the null hypothesis is rejected. Such results are informally referred to as 'statistically significant'. For example, if someone argues that "there's only one chance in a thousand this could have happened by coincidence," a 0.001 level of statistical significance is being implied. The lower the significance level, the stronger the evidence required. Choosing level of significance is a somewhat arbitrary task, but for many applications, a level of 5% is chosen, for no better reason than that it is conventional.[3][4]"

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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Statistics courses are for suckas.

    They will give you a formula for figuring out the likelihood of a coin coming up heads after coming up tails 99 times in a row. That formula doesn't tell you the truth. The truth is it is still 50/50 heads/tails. The outcome is not dependent upon previous coin flips.
    Quote Originally Posted by faithful_servant View Post
    Being a psychiatric patient does not mean that you are mentally ill.



  6. #746
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by Tucker Case View Post
    The high and low ends of the curve are not equivalent to each other, so they can't be lumped together as a single "occurrence".
    To explain this more, look at things in terms of IQ. 84% of people have IQ's above 85.

    Conversely, 84% of people have IQ's below 115.

    When a distribution is two-tailed, the people on the other side of the distribution are included in the comparison of a group to the rest of the population. That's why calling it a 32% "occurrence" is inaccurate. By doing that, you fail to recognize that about 16% of that 32% is actually included in the comparison for the remaining 16%.

    Genital herpes infections are an example of something that has a rate of about 16% that people pretty much universally consider abnormal (i.e. having herpes is abnormal). 84% of people do not have herpes.

    But ultimately, as I said earlier, the "cut-off" for what qualifies as normal is basically an arbitrary thing. If one feels that having herpes is abnormal, then one must conclude that IQ's above 115 or below 85 are also abnormal. If one doesn't feel that an IQ above 115 or below 85 is abnormal, then they also have to conclude that having herpes is also not abnormal.

  7. #747
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Having herpes is normal. Over 25% of Americans have it. The only difference is: people want to believe it is abnormal. It's not about statistics. It's nearly always perception.
    “In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.” -Napoleon

  8. #748
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by _____ View Post
    Oh and this is from Wikipedia. I could have just as easily pulled it from a stat textbook if I still had one on me. I suppose I should have let him look it up himself...but whatever. You probably weren't going to donate the 100 bucks anyways.

    "The significance level is usually denoted by the Greek symbol α (lowercase alpha). Popular levels of significance are 10% (0.1), 5% (0.05), 1% (0.01), 0.5% (0.005), and 0.1% (0.001). If a test of significance gives a p-value lower than the significance level α, the null hypothesis is rejected. Such results are informally referred to as 'statistically significant'. For example, if someone argues that "there's only one chance in a thousand this could have happened by coincidence," a 0.001 level of statistical significance is being implied. The lower the significance level, the stronger the evidence required. Choosing level of significance is a somewhat arbitrary task, but for many applications, a level of 5% is chosen, for no better reason than that it is conventional.[3][4]"
    That's hilarious.

    Now, since you apparently have chosen not to comprehend what you quoted, where do you see anything that relates to population in that quote? (I'll give you a hint: it's not there).

  9. #749
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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by evanescence View Post
    Having herpes is normal. Over 25% of Americans have it. The only difference is: people want to believe it is abnormal. It's not about statistics. It's nearly always perception.
    "Normal" is always perception. Even with statistics. That's th epoint I was making about the arbitrary cut-off ranges.

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    Re: Just Plain Wrong

    well i guess we're in agreement then.
    “In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.” -Napoleon

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