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Thread: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by lpast View Post
    He was not trying to play into anyones fear...he was merely stating a fact wiseone...he said in his post..quote

    The point here isn't that Iran could take on and defeat the US in an offensive naval war; but rather to point out that the US Navy is historically weak at the moment, and likely to only get more so in the near future.

    He stated clearly the USA didnt have to worry about iran...and the navy has suffered being shortchanged with so many resources going to ground troops in theatre.
    Trust that CPwill would never denigrate the USA or its armed services...hes an active duty marine..
    and, it should be mentioned, a huge fan of naval power. that is why I am concerned that we are asking the Navy to do more with less, when they have stretched themselves thin already doing so.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleAye View Post
    ...and misunderstanding what that means.

    Two important things to remember are:

    1). The USN will always complain that it doesn't have enough ships to cover all the points it is supposed to cover. The Navy knows that if it keeps complaining then Congress will eventually give them the new ships they want to have. "The squeaky wheel gets the grease." This doesn't necessarily mean the Navy can't fight at these "thin spots." It means the Navy wants to be sure its guaranteed a win at all points, all of the time.

    2). News flash: Naval ships can be moved. If a "hot spot" develops anywhere on the globe, the USN will consider if the ships already in that location are enough to deal with that problem. If not, then ships from other locations steam over to the hot spot and within days or even hours, the Navy is not thin at all in that location; it's very thick and extremely dangerous.
    you need two carrier groups to realistically prevent a threatened Chinese move on Taiwan. ASSUMING you have them on station, which, with three, you won't. It takes time to move ships, especially when you consider that they have to move as fleets, which means that the slowest critical ship sets the pace, and during particular points in the sea during certain seasons, travel is restricted significantly further. Another Carrier to keep Iran in check and support ops in Central/SW Asia, and now the US is officially out of available naval surface combat power. While this is going on, Somali pirates shut down the international oil trade (no US presence, they are too busy steaming to China) and the world economy goes into a tailspin. I'm so glad we decided to eat seed corn and scrap two carrier groups.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    This is another Iranian attempt at getting attention from the international media. The Iranian navy would be completely annihilated if it attempted to engage the U.S. in any way, and the Iranians are smart enough to know that.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Well Iran... I'd say you're odds are good

    The Iranian navy would never get this view.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    that is unfortunately incorrect. the US Navy is indeed the strongest in the world, and over the past few decades, has been the strongest in history. It is also, however, shrinking. The worlds deadliest carrier groups are worthless if they aren't there and aren't available. Ships go on tour and rotation just as ground units do - for every ship on the sea there is one in port, one in training; which means you take our already historically small navy and you divide by 3 - that is the number of ships (of whatever power) you have to distribute, and in order for many of them to be effective at all, they have to be distributed in groups. A carrier without a carrier group to defend it is just a big target. So, the reality becomes that you don't need to have a more powerful navy to beat the US Navy... you just need to have more or even roughly equivalent power in the region, and that is becoming increasingly easy, as we decrease our presence. We are about to dip to nine carrier groups if the supercommittee fails to protect the two that will be cut if they fail - that means that we can consistently deploy three. Three carrier groups to cover the worlds' oceans. Power isn't just measured in the raw - it's measured in relation to competitors and it's measured relative at the point of impact - and once we take a look at the relative mission, geography, and local concentrations by others, the story of the Awesome Over Powering US Navy becomes very different indeed.
    It's thinking like this that probably has countries like Iran and Pakistan foolishly believing they can defeat the US.

    It's true that the USN plays a constant shell game with its CVBGs (Carrier Battle Groups) for the purposes you mention, but also to keep to potential enemies on their heels, wondering exactly how to defend against a constantly shifting deployment of forces. If what you "see" is not necessarily what is "available," it's difficult to plan offensives.

    This model you propose relies substantially on a purely static model of US naval forces.

    Fighting the USN, and by extension the US military, is like fighting a many-armed octopus. What a single country may "see" in their region, "at the point of impact," may be a single arm of the octopus. They may believe that if they can defeat that single arm, then they have defeated the entire USN (the whole octopus). Foolish! Just because other CVBGs (more arms of the octopus) aren't present at that very moment doesn't mean that more aren't coming. You posted correctly (later) that it takes time to move ships and forces around, but they do arrive eventually and will be ready to finish off the attacker. Defeat in a single battle does not equal victory in war. If a hot spot flares up, and other CVBGs are training or taking time off for R&R, they do not blithely continue their current activity as if nothing else in the world is happening. They cut short their training or R&R - immediately - and mobilize to support other fleet units. Other arms of the octopus, undeterred by the loss of one arm, crush the attacker.

    The USN does not "need" a CVBG hovering around to cover "just Iran." Iran's naval forces are too insignificant to warrant it. CVBGs may cruise around the "Med" just to be nearby if needed. They are not there to cover a single country, but many.

    I also hope that the CVBGs are not cut back. With civil unrest causing regime change all over the middle-east, now would be a terrible time for it.
    Last edited by EagleAye; 10-01-11 at 01:43 PM.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Voltaire X View Post
    This is another Iranian attempt at getting attention from the international media. The Iranian navy would be completely annihilated if it attempted to engage the U.S. in any way, and the Iranians are smart enough to know that.
    This I can agree with, all Iran is doing is positioning it self for the potential vacuum that will be created if and when we vacate the M.E.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    This is completely idiotic. I doubt Iran could even reach us and if they could we'd blow their navy to bits before they were within several hundred kliks of the US coast.
    On what basis? As long as they were in international waters, their operations would be perfectly legal so long as they weren't illegally interfering with U.S. shipping (or shipping from other states).
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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    When I read this thread title I immediately envisioned them landing in Texas. The thought was both extremely disturbing and pleasing at the same time.

    My second thought was "nah, even Iran wouldn't be that stupid."

    My third " Well, it is Iran we're talking about here."
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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Now, who really believes that Obama would do anything, if Iran was actually stupid enough to pull this crap?

    I can hear it, now:

    "But...but...but...they're in international waters"

    "They have the right to sail anywhere they want, as long as they're in international waters"

    "What we need at this point is some strong diplomacy"
    The really scary part is that you think attacking ships that are just sitting in international waters is the correct choice. That Obama would be somehow failing as a leader by not violating international law and aggressing against a nation with whom we aren't at war.
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    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: Iran says could deploy navy near U.S. coast: report

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    the United States Navy has fewer ships now than at any point since WWI. Just sayin.
    The same is true for every important maritime nation on earth. What do you imagine that means?
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