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Bachmann: I'll get gas under $2

sawyerloggingon said:
With new technology more oil is being found and being made accessible all the time, not to mention oil shale which rivals Saudi oil fields in potential.
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True.. but at what price? Oil onshore 50 m underground like it was in Titusville PA in 1859 is a lot easier to get than resources like arctic oil under miles of ice, water, and sediment. Oil will NEVER "run out" it will just relentlessly continue to become more difficult to extract and refine into useful products (and generally more expensive).

Think about it - you don't pick the apples from the top of the tree first. The good stuff's gone.
 
nijato said:
True.. but at what price? Oil onshore 50 m underground like it was in Titusville PA in 1859 is a lot easier to get than resources like arctic oil under miles of ice, water, and sediment. Oil will NEVER "run out" it will just relentlessly continue to become more difficult to extract and refine into useful products (and generally more expensive).

Think about it - you don't pick the apples from the top of the tree first. The good stuff's gone.
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The easy stuffs gone yes but the hard stuff is just as good.
Recently I kayaked into a spot in Glacier National Park that was the site of one of the 1st oil finds in the far west. It was literally bubbling out of the ground. The story on it was 100 miles of wagon road built to get this stuff out to nearest city in 50 gallon drums; the easy stuff wasn’t really that easy. Getting oil has always been tough work and cutting edge technology.
 
sawyerloggingon said:
The easy stuffs gone yes but the hard stuff is just as good.
Recently I kayaked into a spot in Glacier National Park that was the site of one of the 1st oil finds in the far west. It was literally bubbling out of the ground. The story on it was 100 miles of wagon road built to get this stuff out to nearest city in 50 gallon drums; the easy stuff wasn’t really that easy. Getting oil has always been tough work and cutting edge technology.
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I don't know how much you want to get into the physics of this... but the key idea is ER/EI, a ratio of energy return divided by energy invested. First, although it's a little of an oversimplification, for this example, lets say all barrels of oil contain the same amount of chemical energy. Call it k. Now... if the oil is just popping right out of the ground, EI, the energy needed to invest in extraction is very low - just whatever it takes to bottle the stuff. This oil has a high ER/EI (aka EROEI). Some of the highest EROEIs were in the early days of Saudi Arabia - over 100.

Now, as extraction requires more and more energy, eventually EI becomes the same size as k. In that case, EROEI = 1, meaning you get just as much energy out as you had to put into producing the stuff - not really a winning proposition.

So... the problem is, that as EI increases over time EROEI drops, and eventually becomes less than 1, at which point it doesn't make (energetic) sense to take the stuff out of the ground.

eroi.jpg
 
nijato said:
I don't know how much you want to get into the physics of this... but the key idea is ER/EI, a ratio of energy return divided by energy invested. First, although it's a little of an oversimplification, for this example, lets say all barrels of oil contain the same amount of chemical energy. Call it k. Now... if the oil is just popping right out of the ground, EI, the energy needed to invest in extraction is very low - just whatever it takes to bottle the stuff. This oil has a high ER/EI (aka EROEI). Some of the highest EROEIs were in the early days of Saudi Arabia - over 100.

Now, as extraction requires more and more energy, eventually EI becomes the same size as k. In that case, EROEI = 1, meaning you get just as much energy out as you had to put into producing the stuff - not really a winning proposition.

So... the problem is, that as EI increases over time EROEI drops, and eventually becomes less than 1, at which point it doesn't make (energetic) sense to take the stuff out of the ground.

View attachment 67115049
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Interesting graph I guess but I question its accuracy. For one thing I know I put wayyyyy more work into getting my firewood every year than that graph shows! Seriously though if oil shale and tar sand was that low on the value ratio I seriously doubt oil comps would be so eager to go after it. I have heard they only need price at over 70 bucks a barrel to make money. When oil was constantly dipping to 30 bucks a barrel they balked at these oil finds but I think those days are over and shale will come on line now. We will be swimming in reasonably priced oil.
 
sawyerloggingon said:
Interesting graph I guess but I question its accuracy. For one thing I know I put wayyyyy more work into getting my firewood every year than that graph shows! Seriously though if oil shale and tar sand was that low on the value ratio I seriously doubt oil comps would be so eager to go after it. I have heard they only need price at over 70 bucks a barrel to make money. When oil was constantly dipping to 30 bucks a barrel they balked at these oil finds but I think those days are over and shale will come on line now. We will be swimming in reasonably priced oil.
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True true true... which is why oil will never "run out," just get more and more expensive long-term. Calculating ERoEI is a tricky business, and as you guess, estimates vary pretty widely. As for dollars... a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, so it gets tricky to do the math. A megajoule is a megajoule though.
 
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Red Crow said:
she must of have taken lessons from obama, promising everything under the sun and no delivery.
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Now that Bachmann's running on "Hope" and "Change," I take it that's OK now.
 
rocket88 said:
Let the crazy promises begin!!

Bachmann: I'll get gas under $2 - Dan Berman and Molly Ball - POLITICO.com

How do you think that'll happen. Isn't oil freely traded? I guess you could nationalize the oil industry and regulate gas prices. That would be nothing like socialism...
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senseless regulations that inhibit growth in the industry, open all known off shore sites as well as Anwr, which would put fear in the minds of OPEC and they would reduce the cost dramatically over night because they have nothing else to export bring in the cash they live on.

There are more Dates grown in California than the middle east and market for sand and camels has been the pits for many years.

The threat alone would bring down the cost and the reality of drilling would bring it down even farther.

At the same time cars need to be produced that can run on natural gas and electricity need to be produced in larger numbers and cheaper by changing regulation and mandating charging be made available at cost. This would create jobs and reduce the demand for oil.

Fork lifts and other machines have been running propane for a very long time natural gas is a no brainer.

In the mean time we can put together a logical plan to exploit solar, and wind generating and use some of the money we waste on foreign

aid to retrofit coal fired power plants so they are as clean as natural gas, or convert them to natural gas.

Expand the use of Solar power for hone use by giving tax breaks for its installation and use.

I would also mandate the better use insulation in all construction of new homes and the installation in older homes.

There are other ways we can come up with ways to save on the use of power.

If I can come up with this imagine what a genius could do.
 
Councilman said:
senseless regulations that inhibit growth in the industry, open all known off shore sites as well as Anwr, which would put fear in the minds of OPEC and they would reduce the cost dramatically over night because they have nothing else to export bring in the cash they live on.

There are more Dates grown in California than the middle east and market for sand and camels has been the pits for many years.

The threat alone would bring down the cost and the reality of drilling would bring it down even farther.

At the same time cars need to be produced that can run on natural gas and electricity need to be produced in larger numbers and cheaper by changing regulation and mandating charging be made available at cost. This would create jobs and reduce the demand for oil.

Fork lifts and other machines have been running propane for a very long time natural gas is a no brainer.

In the mean time we can put together a logical plan to exploit solar, and wind generating and use some of the money we waste on foreign

aid to retrofit coal fired power plants so they are as clean as natural gas, or convert them to natural gas.

Expand the use of Solar power for hone use by giving tax breaks for its installation and use.

I would also mandate the better use insulation in all construction of new homes and the installation in older homes.

There are other ways we can come up with ways to save on the use of power.

If I can come up with this imagine what a genius could do.
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We have hit peak oil if we think that SS is a big drain on our economy wait another 20 years and see how much a gallon of gas will cost, we need to increase our reserves and hold on to our oil while pushing hard to develop a dependable alternative fuel

I like these ideas of yours

At the same time cars need to be produced that can run on natural gas and electricity need to be produced in larger numbers and cheaper by changing regulation and mandating charging be made available at cost. This would create jobs and reduce the demand for oil.

Fork lifts and other machines have been running propane for a very long time natural gas is a no brainer.

In the mean time we can put together a logical plan to exploit solar, and wind generating and use some of the money we waste on foreign

aid to retrofit coal fired power plants so they are as clean as natural gas, or convert them to natural gas.

Expand the use of Solar power for hone use by giving tax breaks for its installation and use.

I would also mandate the better use insulation in all construction of new homes and the installation in older homes.
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The price of gas can be significantly reduced almost overnight if speculating is made illegal as it should be not just on oil but on any life essential product
 
nijato said:
If you were to run and old car, you'd spew some lead into the environment - which causes brain damage. Besides, you are going to die if you run and old car or not. :)
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Old cars, those with engines built to run on leaded gas, can run unleaded without damage, especially if they were run on leaded for a long time prior to using unleaded. And when the time comes to replace the heads, the shop can make the necessary changes to run the car on unleaded.
 
Councilman said:
senseless regulations that inhibit growth in the industry, open all known off shore sites as well as Anwr, which would put fear in the minds of OPEC and they would reduce the cost dramatically over night because they have nothing else to export bring in the cash they live on.

There are more Dates grown in California than the middle east and market for sand and camels has been the pits for many years.

The threat alone would bring down the cost and the reality of drilling would bring it down even farther.

At the same time cars need to be produced that can run on natural gas and electricity need to be produced in larger numbers and cheaper by changing regulation and mandating charging be made available at cost. This would create jobs and reduce the demand for oil.

Fork lifts and other machines have been running propane for a very long time natural gas is a no brainer.

In the mean time we can put together a logical plan to exploit solar, and wind generating and use some of the money we waste on foreign

aid to retrofit coal fired power plants so they are as clean as natural gas, or convert them to natural gas.

Expand the use of Solar power for hone use by giving tax breaks for its installation and use.

I would also mandate the better use insulation in all construction of new homes and the installation in older homes.

There are other ways we can come up with ways to save on the use of power.

If I can come up with this imagine what a genius could do.
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Gasoline has ONE purpose, to be burned in our vehicles....
Natural gas has multiple purposes, it can be burned in our cars, our houses, our factories, our stores, our power plants, etc.
Consider what happened in Texas last winter. The supply lines for natural gas must be kept at a certain pressure for adequate delivery to larger customers, but many thousands of small customers, home owners wanting to keep warm, used too much and the supply pressure dropped beyond a point that would keep Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plants running, so electricity supply was reduced as well.
With gasoline, only our transportation needs suffer when supply is interrupted. With natural gas, we not only don't have fuel for our cars, we get to stay home and freeze in the dark as well.

Architecture 2030 is a newly proposed building code that will do for structures what we have already done for cars, make them a lot more efficient.
Reducing demand thru efficiencies, aka conserving, needs to be the primary part of our energy planning,
 
info on the Bakken :

The Oil Drum | The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?

If 500 million barrels turns out to be the ultimate recovery, the recovery factor would range from 0.13% to 0.25% of estimated oil in place. This very low percentage recovery of the estimated oil in place is not unreasonable if one considers that many of the more marginal areas of the field are likely to be deemed sub-economic and will never be drilled and produced. Technology improvements that will inevitably be made during an era of high energy prices will undoubtedly render some of this more marginal oil recoverable, but the total recovery is still likely to be low.
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VanceMack said:
Perhaps her plan is to allow for more ready access to the existing US oil fields that have been unused. Assuming she isnt advocating for nationalization (which is a pretty safe assumption considering her position on the expanded role of government) the only way she could influence greatly reduced gas prices is to increase supply or dramitically reduce demand. Might be interesting to actually know her plan.
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Except that's a flat out lie.

There is no way to do this without nationalization. US production simply cannot force the global supply to increase to the point where it can not only overcome the rise in global demand, but overcome it to the point where supply is in such abundance that price dramatically fall. The only way Bachmann could do this is nationalization or bombing every country which uses oil back into the stone age to kill off their demand.
 
obvious Child said:
Except that's a flat out lie.

There is no way to do this without nationalization. US production simply cannot force the global supply to increase to the point where it can not only overcome the rise in global demand, but overcome it to the point where supply is in such abundance that price dramatically fall. The only way Bachmann could do this is nationalization or bombing every country which uses oil back into the stone age to kill off their demand.
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There is one way. She could crash our economy again :D
 
sawyerloggingon said:
I think obama has already done that and gas is still high.
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No, the crash rests on the limpdick's shoulders. That would be GWSnotForBrains hisself. Really bad Republican fiscal policies and they have helped the rich get much richer. They'll need it all if the dollar reaches its true value.
 
DaveFagan said:
No, the crash rests on the limpdick's shoulders. That would be GWSnotForBrains hisself. Really bad Republican fiscal policies and they have helped the rich get much richer. They'll need it all if the dollar reaches its true value.
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Why don't tell us what you really think?
 
DaveFagan said:
No, the crash rests on the limpdick's shoulders. That would be GWSnotForBrains hisself. Really bad Republican fiscal policies and they have helped the rich get much richer. They'll need it all if the dollar reaches its true value.
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You know, you don't exactly present a compelling argument when you use childish namecalling.
 
sawyerloggingon said:
With new technology more oil is being found and being made accessible all the time, not to mention oil shale which rivals Saudi oil fields in potential.
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your claim is dubious, at best.

The Oil Drum | The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?

Will Bakken ever produce as much as 4.1 billion barrels (= 3,649+500 million barrels), the amount suggested by the USGS estimate? It seems very unlikely. Production so far has been 111 million barrels. If the industry is able to discover several more prolific areas such as the Elm Coulee field in Montana (43 million barrels, or 38% of the Bakken oil recovered to date), it might be possible to increase this recovery to 500 million barrels, or 4.5 times the current production. Is total production of 500 million barrels likely? It's difficult to say. The USGS estimate is vastly higher than this, so much less likely.

If 500 million barrels turns out to be the ultimate recovery, the recovery factor would range from 0.13% to 0.25% of estimated oil in place. This very low percentage recovery of the estimated oil in place is not unreasonable if one considers that many of the more marginal areas of the field are likely to be deemed sub-economic and will never be drilled and produced. Technology improvements that will inevitably be made during an era of high energy prices will undoubtedly render some of this more marginal oil recoverable, but the total recovery is still likely to be low.
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i'm rooting for an energy policy that allows us to provide most of our own energy. oil is not likely to get us there no matter how much we drill because we simply don't have enough to meet our own demand long term. that means that we will be importing it. that will be increasingly costly; and not just in monetary terms.

a successful path forward will probably involve electric as a transition to something else. i would rank finding and developing that something else as a top tier priority.
 
Helix said:
i'm rooting for an energy policy that allows us to provide most of our own energy. oil is not likely to get us there no matter how much we drill because we simply don't have enough to meet our own demand long term. that means that we will be importing it. that will be increasingly costly; and not just in monetary terms.

a successful path forward will probably involve electric as a transition to something else. i would rank finding and developing that something else as a top tier priority.
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I am in the all of the above camp. Drill baby drill even.
 
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