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Thread: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    The problem is your are not understanding what this is saying. Using the examples in your quote, the ratio of women or minorities is known, in advance, and is not volatile. The number of people who self identify as democrats is not known in advance, and chances all the time.
    No, I understand it perfectly. They simply use women as an example. Do you actually believe that they would report poll results if 90% of the people said they belonged to one party??

    You are just to arrogant to admit when you are wrong.

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    No, I understand it perfectly. They simply use women as an example. Do you actually believe that they would report poll results if 90% of the people said they belonged to one party??

    You are just to arrogant to admit when you are wrong.
    Do you know in advance what portion of people self identify as democrats and how many as republicans? Would you not then if you assign a required ratio between the two, change the actual results of the poll to not be representative of the general public? Think hard about those questions and get back to me.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ricksfolly View Post
    Just goes to show that Americans dig wars, even closet hawks come out.

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    Hey rick. That kind of statement was below the belt. The Good Reverend and I don't agree on much, and have smacked each other around for years in this forum. But you know what? He is no closet hawk. He is the real deal, and to personally attack his service like this is despicable. Like I said, he and I don't agree on much, but I will be the first to defend him against crap like this. I have also reported your post.

    And to Reverend_Hellh0und - Thank you for your service.
    Last edited by danarhea; 05-14-11 at 09:11 AM.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    sampling aside, sixty percent is rather an outlier

    and a pretty far out there outlier at that

    Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Government, Politics, Economics, Management

    and when it comes to the economy, everybody (but ap) has the slasher down by twenty

    maybe ap should reexamine its methods
    Last edited by The Prof; 05-14-11 at 07:58 PM.

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent


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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Love it.

    "Obama's poll numbers are down"

    YEAH! Go America! Nothing wrong with that poll.

    "Obama's poll numbers are up".

    Poll is bad!

    And you know, even if you are right, this happens EVERY SINGLE TIME a poll shows good, you always gotta try and discredit it, I'll be waiting for you to have the same objectivity on a negative poll about Obama... Or probably not.
    Yup. This happens everytime there is a poll regardless of the political implications of the poll. One side says "yay" and the other says "irrelevant". That's how threads like this always go.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainCourtesy View Post
    Yup. This happens everytime there is a poll regardless of the political implications of the poll. One side says "yay" and the other says "irrelevant". That's how threads like this always go.



    I'd throw up an eyebrow no matter which person this particular poll was about.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Do you know in advance what portion of people self identify as democrats and how many as republicans? Would you not then if you assign a required ratio between the two, change the actual results of the poll to not be representative of the general public? Think hard about those questions and get back to me.
    I did think hard about it, BEFORE I posted. Perhaps you are the one that should think about it before making another blanket statement about something you obviously know nothing about.

    New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 39.9% Democrat 33.4% Republican
    Saturday, November 01, 2008
    Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process.
    New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 39.9% Democrat 33.4% Republican - Rasmussen Reports™

    TIPP, the political polling arm of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, conducts monthly polls for its media partners, the Investors Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor.

    Since the 2000 Presidential Election, TIPP has adhered to rigorous polling standards and has amassed a detailed database of party affiliation information spanning more than 4 years.

    In the recent 2004 Presidential Election, when many other pollsters were saying that weighting by party affiliation was an inappropriate method, TIPP continued to adhere to the philosophy that weighting by party ID was the only way to accurately represent reality. The result: TIPP correctly predicted President Bush’s reelection and was one of the closest to predicting his actual margin of victory.
    Weighting by Party ID: When It Comes to Elections, Can It Really Be Tossed Out the Door?

    I looked through the cross-tabs, which are behind the pay firewall, and will pass some of that on here (Zogby, weights party ID by 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26% Independent. Age by 18% 18-29, 15% 30-49, 24% 50-64, and 17% 65+. And 75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 2% Other. All quite solid).
    Zogby polling opens wide for Obama

    Daily KOS
    Features/Strengths: Full set of cross-tabular results published each day. Poll tends to be fairly stable, in part because they use a fixed party ID weighting (Democrat +9). Research 2000 is the only pollster to publish each individual day's results in addition to the rolling average.

    Quirks/Concerns: Racial demographics are aggressive -- probably too aggressive -- showing blacks making up 14 percent of the electorate and Hispanics another 13 percent. Turnout will be up among minorities this year, but probably not by quite that much. The +9 party ID split is arguably also aggressive, although within the broad range of what other polls have found this year.

    Rasmussen
    Features/Strengths: Largest sample size of any of the tracking polls. Between that and the fact that they weight by party ID, they have tended to have the most stable results. To the extent that any pollster should weight by party ID, I think Rasmussen is going about it the right way, setting targets based on a six-week rolling average of all interviews conducted
    .
    FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tracking Poll Primer

    And one last point..... if the area code and first three digits are "chosen" then the number called is not "random".... is it???

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Government, Politics, Economics, Management

    So much for that.


    46%44%


    Perhaps they have the wrong area codes.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    that 60% was smoke and mirrors..

    funny how supporters jumped on it as if the man had actually done something..

    So Osama was assasinated on Obamas watch, not that big a deal in reality.

    I think if he would have ordered the compound and everyone found inside held, searched, interrogated and otherwise treated like the MOST VALUBLE PIECE OF THE WAR ON TERROR THAT EXIST that they were his numbers may have risen,

    but I find it hard to believe that people that thought he would close Gitmo and stop torture somehow find lasting solitude in him assasinating an unarmed man

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