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Thread: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

  1. #111
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    I presume you mean methods and we are not discussing the philosophy behind a particular method(s).
    Nonsense.
    Examples:
    I want dems. I poll a college campus, avoiding the business and engineering schools. I poll an inner-city area. I poll a hippie concert.
    I want repubs. I poll a business school. I poll a southern rural area. I poll small business owners.

    One can do it by geography, demographics, etc.
    I want birfers. I poll a TP rally.
    Not to easy to specify locations with random digit dialing.

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    I'm just sayin' it can be done. Some people seem to be saying it was.

    I don't think the digits are entirely random. I don't think they can call unlisted private numbers.

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Whovian View Post
    nonsense, the lot of it.

    You're telling me that if I happen to call 1000 people, and by sheer blind luck I get 80% Democrats... the poll I take is not skewed to favor Democrats?
    That's exactly right.

    Random digit dialing doesn't guarantee a level playing field of polled individuals. If a poll would slant 80% to either side, the poll would, or should, be thrown out. It's junk. The same is true of 17%, it isn't representative of a level field and shouldn't be published. Not that AP was TRYING to sway the poll, but anyone seeing that it was slanted almost 20% in favor of one side, EITHER SIDE, should have raised red flags and said "This one is crap, let's do it again." Ain't no shame in admitting a flub up, especially a flub up caused by a computer. Just re-do it. No big deal.

    But don't post the poll saying the man has a 10 point gain in popularity when you are the only one getting those results. It kinda makes you look like an idiot, ya know?

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    That's exactly right.

    Random digit dialing doesn't guarantee a level playing field of polled individuals. If a poll would slant 80% to either side, the poll would, or should, be thrown out. It's junk. The same is true of 17%, it isn't representative of a level field and shouldn't be published. Not that AP was TRYING to sway the poll, but anyone seeing that it was slanted almost 20% in favor of one side, EITHER SIDE, should have raised red flags and said "This one is crap, let's do it again." Ain't no shame in admitting a flub up, especially a flub up caused by a computer. Just re-do it. No big deal.

    But don't post the poll saying the man has a 10 point gain in popularity when you are the only one getting those results. It kinda makes you look like an idiot, ya know?



    True, but the intelligent among us, would see this poll, and who was sampled, and take it and its results anomaly for exactly what it is, an anomaly....


    If I have 5 weather forecasts and and the one on monday, tuesday, thursday and friday say 10 inches of snow, and wednesday's says no snow.... I'd wouldn't be so quick to put that snow shovel away.


    Simple really.
    You should try to remember, ideas are conveyed by researching information, vetting sources, and confirming said information. Not by regurgitating talking points given to you by your "news" station.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Yes, the result of a question on party affiliation is a "result", but the decision to include a disproportionate number of Dems in the poll results is a "methodology".

    The normal methodology is to include a ratio of Republicans, Democrats, and independents consistent with the known population.
    This is false and would actually lead to inaccurate results.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    I presume you mean methods and we are not discussing the philosophy behind a particular method(s).
    Nonsense.
    Examples:
    I want dems. I poll a college campus, avoiding the business and engineering schools. I poll an inner-city area. I poll a hippie concert.
    I want repubs. I poll a business school. I poll a southern rural area. I poll small business owners.

    One can do it by geography, demographics, etc.
    I want birfers. I poll a TP rally.
    Actually, if you want to poll dems or republicans, you use qualifying questions. Early in the polling, you ask what party a person identifies with, and if they identify with the wrong party, you terminate the interview.

    I spent a few months before I went into the navy doing phone polling. We had any number of polls like that. In those cases, the qualifying question was not a part of the results.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham
    Iíve always believed that America is an idea, not defined by its people but by its ideals. - Lindsey Graham

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Not to easy to specify locations with random digit dialing.
    Again, false. The computer that picks the numbers can be given details of what sets of area codes and/or first 3 digits of phone number.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham
    Iíve always believed that America is an idea, not defined by its people but by its ideals. - Lindsey Graham

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    True, but the intelligent among us, would see this poll, and who was sampled, and take it and its results anomaly for exactly what it is, an anomaly....


    If I have 5 weather forecasts and and the one on monday, tuesday, thursday and friday say 10 inches of snow, and wednesday's says no snow.... I'd wouldn't be so quick to put that snow shovel away.


    Simple really.
    Actually, the technical term is "outlier", and they are still valid. Further, in cases where the question is something that won't usually be 50/50, it is stupid to expect it to be. Even further, the result on those questions go up and down based on events. Even more further, as the source Rev provided mentions, both party affiliations are within a couple percent of the last poll done by this company. It then makes the retarded comparison to several months ago when republicans where at peak popularity and even then the results where about the same number of democrats, but significantly more republicans.

    So Rev, you not want to suggest that the intelligent would do the retarded thing, since not only are you wrong based on the results of the poll, not only do you not understand the difference between methodology and results, not only are you continuing to ignore the explanation your own source mentioned was possible, but your example with the temperatures is nothing like this polls results. That is some might big fail Rev.
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    Iíve always believed that America is an idea, not defined by its people but by its ideals. - Lindsey Graham

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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Actually, the technical term is "outlier", and they are still valid. Further, in cases where the question is something that won't usually be 50/50, it is stupid to expect it to be. Even further, the result on those questions go up and down based on events. Even more further, as the source Rev provided mentions, both party affiliations are within a couple percent of the last poll done by this company. It then makes the retarded comparison to several months ago when republicans where at peak popularity and even then the results where about the same number of democrats, but significantly more republicans.

    So Rev, you not want to suggest that the intelligent would do the retarded thing, since not only are you wrong based on the results of the poll, not only do you not understand the difference between methodology and results, not only are you continuing to ignore the explanation your own source mentioned was possible, but your example with the temperatures is nothing like this polls results. That is some might big fail Rev.


    Meh, enjoy your poll redress.
    You should try to remember, ideas are conveyed by researching information, vetting sources, and confirming said information. Not by regurgitating talking points given to you by your "news" station.
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    Re: AP-GfK poll: Obama approval hits 60 percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    Meh, enjoy your poll redress.
    Remember, they are only for sheep...except when you use them to start threads bragging about the results! And remember to throw up as many objections as possible, no matter how wrong, when the results of a poll are not what you want.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham
    Iíve always believed that America is an idea, not defined by its people but by its ideals. - Lindsey Graham

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