With respect to renewable energy, several quick thoughts:
1) Renewable sources will likely provide an increasing share of energy over the longer-term for obvious reasons (geopolitical risk, depletion of conventional sources, increasing attractiveness as a substitute for conventional sources as renewable technologies advance).
2) It remains unclear which source of renewable energy will "break out" from the pack so to speak. Indeed, the summary released by IPCC states, "Scenarios do not indicate an obvious single dominant RE technology at a global level; in addition, the global overall technical potentials do not constrain the future contribution of RE." However, it is probably more likely than not that some disruptive innovation will lead to a qualitative edge for a particular source. That has typically been the story with emerging industries and there is little reason to believe that the experience in the renewable energy sector would be any different.
3) Experience/learning curves coupled with technological advances should lead to lower cost production for a variety of renewable energy sources.
4) Investment and research could lead to one or more countries gaining a qualitative comparative edge in renewable energy technology. Countries facing factor disadvantages in conventional energy sources, rapidly growing energy consumption needs, and a large market of prospective customers, might have the greatest incentive to pursue renewable energy research and development. For example, China is aggressively pursuing R&D in solar energy. Already, China may be near or in the lead globally in solar energy technology.
5) A significant barrier to renewable energy investment could be the looming era of austerity for parts of Western Europe and the U.S. Huge fiscal challenges could reduce public investments as political leaders try to cushion the need to restructure popular entitlement/mandatory spending programs. It is not implausible that a country outside of Western Europe or besides the U.S. could gain a sustainable competitive advantage in one or more renewable energy technologies.
6) Biofuels face an additional barrier. The need to feed people/animals generated by growing populations in some countries and improving nutrition that corresponds with economic development could compete with use for biofuels. The former situation would very likely take precedent over time, especially as developing countries gain greater global clout.
FWIW, the summary of the IPCC report can be found at:
http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/srren-spm-fd4
The full report will be posted on May 31, 2011 at:
IPCC SRREN: Summary for Policy Makers
