Page 1 of 7 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 69

Thread: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

  1. #1
    Sage
    Erod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    North Texas
    Last Seen
    12-09-17 @ 11:30 AM
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    13,026

    IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Brett Arends' ROI - MarketWatch

    BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

    For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.


    The Obama deficit tourThe Wall Street Journal editorial page’s Steve Moore critiques the president's speeches attacking Republican budget plans.
    And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

    According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

    Put that in your calendar.

    It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.
    There are big issues with this theory, no doubt. Most people in China live in abject poverty, and the divide between the haves and have-nots there is massive. The Chinese people in general aren't thinking much about taking over the planet; they're trying to eat.

    The ugly truth for China is that they are still completely dependent on the U.S. And in the end, he with the biggest bombs will forever rule the day. Some things never change.

  2. #2
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    melbourne florida
    Last Seen
    09-24-15 @ 12:15 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    13,156

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Brett Arends' ROI - MarketWatch


    There are big issues with this theory, no doubt. Most people in China live in abject poverty, and the divide between the haves and have-nots there is massive. The Chinese people in general aren't thinking much about taking over the planet; they're trying to eat.

    The ugly truth for China is that they are still completely dependent on the U.S. And in the end, he with the biggest bombs will forever rule the day. Some things never change.
    Shows Obama is not concerned about our status in the world. His spending is more important that anything else

  3. #3
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    11-28-17 @ 04:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,690

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    I don't believe this is a "bombshell." Those who are familiar with GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and recent trends should reasonably expect such a development within a decade or less (depending on what assumptions are employed).

    PPP, for those who are not familiar with the concept, entails expressing a nation's GDP in terms of prices that prevail in the U.S., rather than official exchange rates. Given China's sustained rapid growth, the idea that China's GDP (PPP basis) could reach parity with the U.S. within less than a decade is not too surprising.

    In 2010, China's GDP was $9.872 trillion (PPP basis). U.S. GDP was $14.720 trillion. In the 2008-10 period, China's GDP rose nearly 9.7% per year (PPP basis). U.S. GDP was flat, but growth has resumed. Keep in mind, PPP entails the purchasing power in U.S. terms (basket of goods). The calculation has some important limitations i.e., baskets of goods aren't necessarily comparable, inflation effects, etc. Nonetheless, it is one broad measure that seeks to overcome issues related to exchange rates that may or may not properly reflect underlying fundamentals.

    Finally, an important caveat is in order. Current trends may or may not persist. For example, were China hit by an asset bubble and resulting shock from its collapse, China's growth trajectory could be materially slower than currently forecast.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 04-25-11 at 01:56 PM.

  4. #4
    Sage
    ric27's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Last Seen
    06-15-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    7,539

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Companies exist to make money for their shareholders. As much money as possible, any way they can. And while they are making as much money as possible, they want to have the lowest costs possible. That's why jobs are being shipped out of America as fast as is practical. It costs too much to do business here..

    There is NO such thing as America first in big business, and there hasn't been since the 1970's.

    Shipping of jobs offshore, I believe is the biggest threat facing us long term. China is going to eat us alive over the next 50 years because our country will be crushed under the weight of exponentially more government regulation.

  5. #5
    Count Smackula
    rathi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    California
    Last Seen
    10-31-15 @ 10:29 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    7,890

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    I'm not really inclined to blame anyone for the U.S. losing the number 1 spot. No matter what any president did, he wasn't going to be able to match a country with triple the population and 10% annual growth. The good news is that it really isn't a huge deal. The U.S. will remain an extremely wealthy nation regardless of what China does.

  6. #6
    Sage
    Lord Tammerlain's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:12 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    10,431

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I don't believe this is a "bombshell." Those who are familiar with GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and recent trends should reasonably expect such a development within a decade or less (depending on what assumptions are employed).

    PPP, for those who are not familiar with the concept, entails expressing a nation's GDP in terms of prices that prevail in the U.S., rather than official exchange rates. Given China's sustained rapid growth, the idea that China's GDP (PPP basis) could reach parity with the U.S. within less than a decade is not too surprising.

    In 2010, China's GDP was $9.872 trillion (PPP basis). U.S. GDP was $14.720 trillion. In the 2008-10 period, China's GDP rose nearly 9.7% per year (PPP basis). U.S. GDP was flat, but growth has resumed. Keep in mind, PPP entails the purchasing power in U.S. terms (basket of goods). The calculation has some important limitations i.e., baskets of goods aren't necessarily comparable, inflation effects, etc. Nonetheless, it is one broad measure that seeks to overcome issues related to exchange rates that may or may not properly reflect underlying fundamentals.

    Finally, an important caveat is in order. Current trends may or may not persist. For example, were China hit by an asset bubble and resulting shock from its collapse, China's growth trajectory could be materially slower than currently forecast.
    For the Chinese economy to reach parity with the US in GDP terms not GDP ppp a couple of things by the IMF time frame a combination of a couple of events would have to occur. Decoupling of the Chinese yuan to the dollar, a devaluation of the USD and or strengthing of the Yuan.

    A good 30% currency adjustment during that period of time could see China have parity with the US regarding GDP
    Happy Hanukkah Cheerfull Kwanzaa
    Happy Christmas Merry New Year Festivus for the rest of us

  7. #7
    Sage
    ric27's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Last Seen
    06-15-17 @ 02:57 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    7,539

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Quote Originally Posted by rathi View Post
    The U.S. will remain an extremely wealthy nation regardless of what China does.
    Not really...Great cultures rise and fall about every 400 years like clockwork. Read up....We're due.

    And the reason the cultures fall is always the same. They become soft and worry about silly contrived bull**** rather than what's important.

    Its, the current US irreversible backwards slide into irrelevancy. It isn't happening all at once, but a little bit here and a little bit there is enough. Sort of like erosion.

    Hard to to say it, but the 21st century will indeed be the Chinese Century.

  8. #8
    Sage

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Seen
    10-10-16 @ 10:59 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    6,073

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Brett Arends' ROI - MarketWatch



    There are big issues with this theory, no doubt. Most people in China live in abject poverty, and the divide between the haves and have-nots there is massive. The Chinese people in general aren't thinking much about taking over the planet; they're trying to eat.

    The ugly truth for China is that they are still completely dependent on the U.S. And in the end, he with the biggest bombs will forever rule the day. Some things never change.
    Indeed, with all China's money, it should have no problem buying enough US politicians to use to the American military as it wishes.

  9. #9
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:11 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,060

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Shows Obama is not concerned about our status in the world. His spending is more important that anything else
    of course he's concerned with our status. we are still way too rich and powerful.

  10. #10
    Global Moderator
    Moderator

    Zyphlin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    NoMoAuchie
    Last Seen
    @
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    47,937

    Re: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    If anything it highlights the ridiculous notion of wealth disparity in this country when you compare say, the average "lower class" individual in America and what oppertunities and possessions are available to them comparable to a "lower class" Chinese individual.

Page 1 of 7 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •