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China 'to overtake US on science' in two years

Jetboogieman

Jetboogieman

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China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected.

That is the conclusion of a major new study by the Royal Society, the UK's national science academy.

The country that invented the compass, gunpowder, paper and printing is set for a globally important comeback.

An analysis of published research - one of the key measures of scientific effort - reveals an "especially striking" rise by Chinese science.

The study, Knowledge, Networks and Nations, charts the challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan.

The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier.

'No surprise'

In 1996, the first year of the analysis, the US published 292,513 papers - more than 10 times China's 25,474.

By 2008, the US total had increased very slightly to 316,317 while China's had surged more than seven-fold to 184,080.

Previous estimates for the rate of expansion of Chinese science had suggested that China might overtake the US sometime after 2020.

But this study shows that China, after displacing the UK as the world's second leading producer of research, could go on to overtake America in as little as two years' time.

"Projections vary, but a simple linear interpretation of Elsevier's publishing data suggests that this could take place as early as 2013," it says.

Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, chair of the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase because of China's massive boost to investment in R&D.

Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006.

"I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent."
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BBC News - China 'to overtake US on science' in two years
 
This isn't really surprising, seeing as how China is investing its money in its people, in things like education, public transportation, internet, and so forth. How does the US expect to compete when we are going to be cutting education and not doing much about rising college tuition rates, it may soon be to the point where only a privileged few can actually afford a college education.

A good rule of thumb is that tuition rates will increase at about twice the general inflation rate.
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Source.

Edit: Also look here
 
So... China is excelling. Good for them. I can't help but like a country that's more interested in progressing than having big guns.
 
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Jetboogieman said:
Yeah you did.
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And how does that translate into them not being interested? I said they were more interested in progressing. That doesn't denote that they aren't interested in expanding their military as well.
 
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China has not yet reached the technological level of the U.S. or even South Korea. While they have made astounding progress and dominate many fields, they still import crucial technical knowledge from abroad. China has yet to even export a Chinese designed car competitive in the western or Japanese markets. At present rates China is rapidly gaining, but we have more than 2 years before they catch up.
 
Mr. Invisible said:
This isn't really surprising, seeing as how China is investing its money in its people, in things like education, public transportation, internet, and so forth. How does the US expect to compete when we are going to be cutting education and not doing much about rising college tuition rates, it may soon be to the point where only a privileged few can actually afford a college education.



Source.

Edit: Also look here
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Total horse****, we never cut education and never will. It's nothing but a leftist talking point. Show me where it was cut, even a dollar. What percentage of the Chinese budget goes toward entitlements?
 
Jetboogieman said:
And you don't think they're also working on big guns?
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This is true. Numerous Pentagon reports have revealed that China's military spending is higher than what is officially reported and that it continues to grow rapidly. Given China's growing strength in science and engineering, it would be surprising if China were not working on technologies that would not, at least in theory, give it a chance of achieving qualitative breakthroughs (consumer and defense fields). My guess is that the space arena is one area in which China is aggressively pursuing advantages. Indeed, that would be a logical starting point given the reliance of modern weapons systems on satellites and other space-related technologies. If one gains superiority in space, many of today's modern weapons systems could be neutralized. At the same time, there is no country--not even the U.S. or Russia--has an edge in space that is so far advanced that the quest to match and then exceed those capabilities is futile.

Back to the Pentagon's reports, there are the usual arguments that China's military power is growing faster than what might be dictated by the country's security needs. Those arguments miss the point when the wider sweep of history is brought into the picture (a deficiency that seems all to common in U.S. military planning beginning in the early 2000s). Rising powers have typically expanded all facets of their power, including their military power much more rapidly than most other states. By definition, a rising power's military strength has to grow faster than its security requirements, otherwise the state would not be a rising power.

In the end, I don't believe it is surprising that China is following the typical trajectory of rising powers. It also would not be surprising if it were focusing on arenas in which its growing prowess in science might give it an advantage. What would be surprising is if the U.S. were not working on means of countering that work e.g., the miniaturization of certain space technologies could offer one line of R&D toward that end. The U.S. is a leader in nanotechnologies, so such work would make eminent sense given its strengths.

Of course, a rising China need not assure a future confrontation between the U.S. and China. There remain broad interests that are shared by the two countries. If American and Chinese political leaders choose wisely, the co-existence experience can be one that is mutually beneficial to both countries and their peoples. At the same time, the overall bilateral relationship can be one that augments global stability.
 
American said:
Total horse****, we never cut education and never will. It's nothing but a leftist talking point. Show me where it was cut, even a dollar. What percentage of the Chinese budget goes toward entitlements?
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Have you even read one news story in the past year? Here's a google search with the string cut+to+education. Good luck, you've got a lot of reading to do:

Google
 
There is way too much fear-mongering about China. People hear China is building an aircraft carrier and start losing their **** even though the French already got one, the Russians too with more on the way for them, India will have two by the time China has its one, and even Brazil has an aircraft carrier. So, in fact, all this fear about China is overblown. Certainly it is a rising power that will play a significant role in the world, but even if we had reason to be afraid of China becoming a major military player it is still not something likely in this decade. Keep in mind that the U.S. is right now capable of matching the rest of the world's carrier force 1:1 and no other country's are supercarriers of the Nimitz tonnage.
 
Demon of Light said:
There is way too much fear-mongering about China. People hear China is building an aircraft carrier and start losing their **** even though the French already got one, the Russians too with more on the way for them, India will have two by the time China has its one, and even Brazil has an aircraft carrier. So, in fact, all this fear about China is overblown. Certainly it is a rising power that will play a significant role in the world, but even if we had reason to be afraid of China becoming a major military player it is still not something likely in this decade. Keep in mind that the U.S. is right now capable of matching the rest of the world's carrier force 1:1 and no other country's are supercarriers of the Nimitz tonnage.
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I agree. While China's rise might be unsettling for those who truly believe the world is unipolar (the Krauthammer thesis) and fear that U.S. preeminence is slipping away, it is less unsettling for those who understand that it has been and is likely to remain multipolar. Understanding that large shared interests exist between China and the U.S. is also recognition that there is vast opportunity for a non-confrontational, mutually beneficial long-term relationship. A world in which China is counted among the world's great powers need not be a world of confrontation, Cold War, or worse. Among other things, precisely because its economic miracle has been made possible by East Asian stability, a continuation of that stability is as much in China's interest as it is in the United States'.

To be sure, risks exist. But at this point in time, if those risks evolve to the extent that the U.S. and China are in confrontation, that outcome will more reflect bad policy choices/decisions than some immutable historic outcome.
 
whysoserious said:
Have you even read one news story in the past year? Here's a google search with the string cut+to+education. Good luck, you've got a lot of reading to do:

Google
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I know how the budget works, if it got cut....Obama cut it. Bush kept raising education all through his presidency. So I don't believe any link.
 
American said:
What percentage of the Chinese budget goes toward entitlements?
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that's the real question.

they spend money educating their people
we spend money enabling ours
 
Arcadius said:
Your partisanship is impressive.

:applaud
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Budgets aren't cut, but you're welcome to show us all where the cuts are, if you think that's the case. $3T+ budgets
 
rathi said:
China has not yet reached the technological level of the U.S. or even South Korea. While they have made astounding progress and dominate many fields, they still import crucial technical knowledge from abroad. China has yet to even export a Chinese designed car competitive in the western or Japanese markets. At present rates China is rapidly gaining, but we have more than 2 years before they catch up.
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American cars don't even compete with European or Japanese IMO... and wouldn't have an auto industry if it weren't for the tax payers bailing most of them out. Imagine if that didn't happen..
 
Demon of Light said:
There is way too much fear-mongering about China. People hear China is building an aircraft carrier and start losing their **** even though the French already got one, the Russians too with more on the way for them, India will have two by the time China has its one, and even Brazil has an aircraft carrier. So, in fact, all this fear about China is overblown. Certainly it is a rising power that will play a significant role in the world, but even if we had reason to be afraid of China becoming a major military player it is still not something likely in this decade. Keep in mind that the U.S. is right now capable of matching the rest of the world's carrier force 1:1 and no other country's are supercarriers of the Nimitz tonnage.
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I am not worried about China's military technology. They are not aggressive towards us.

However, they own a large portion of our debt and it looks like they'd be doing just fine if we default... They are in a better long term situation than us, and we did it to ourselves.
 
American said:
I know how the budget works, if it got cut....Obama cut it. Bush kept raising education all through his presidency. So I don't believe any link.
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I think it was a mixed bag... plus he did No Child Left behind, which gave some schools more funding than others (that's my understanding). I haven't met a teacher who supports LCLB..

Bush budget cuts education

Also, in my state... education is being cut.. It's also a state's issue, but I am sure you know that
 
I am kind of curious how socialist China is, and what the DP socialists think of China... It seems like they have been opening the economy up a little bit, so I am not sure where they stand.
 
American said:
Budgets aren't cut, but you're welcome to show us all where the cuts are, if you think that's the case. $3T+ budgets
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Uhh, here are some places that are currently cutting or proposing cuts to education:

Mississippi (how could you not have heard about this?): Governor, R
Colorado : Governor, D
Rochester, NY: Mayor, R
Pennsylvania: Governor, R

There's literally tons more, but I'd say that shoots your idea that Obama is making all the education cuts pretty null and void.
 
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