Canada might not like Harper enough to give him a majority. <== This is true
How is this a shift?
Here, let me use the poll that you cited:
1) Harper: 49%
2) Layton: 34%
3) Ignatieff: 17%
Is that a majority to you?
PS. My personal opinion is that Harper will eke in with a majority. But it won't be from my vote.