As i'm sure you know and you imply, the state is not looking to refinance the entire debt - and there could be good reasons why they are looking at this specific portion. So, the numbers you provided are fairly meaningless.
My point has been all along that some refinancing was taking place and that the opportunity to refinance will not end. The state is seeking to finance the debt that is coming due on May 1. It is seeking to refinance the current portion of its debt.
It sounds like you have no idea how much WI is attempting to refinance.
I had assumed that you had read the LBF's document, but was incorrect.
The portion of debt subject to the March 16 deadline is the $165 million that is coming due. Total debt being issued would to $474 million ($309 million new debt + $165 million debt being refinanced).
Additionally, you have no idea what percentage of that has to be completed by 03/16 to help cover the deficit (it could be 100.0% for all you seem to know). So, basically, pretty much everything you provided prior, while interesting, is fairly meaningless to the debate.
Completely wrong. Again, had you read the Fiscal Bureau's document the answer would be clear: $165 million. That's about 1.8% of the state's GPR-supported debt. It's a tiny slice. So, even if refinancing on that tiny slice were passed up (and it need not be passed up), the overall impact would be very small.
In sum:
1) Today is not a drop dead date. 3/16 is the date for refinancing ~1.8% of the state's GPR-supported debt (fraction coming due on May 1, 2011).
2) 3/16 only closes the window on debt maturing May 1, 2011. The overwhelming share of GPR-supported debt (>98%) could be refinanced later.
3) Considering that the overwhelming share of the state's GPR-supported debt is
not bound by the March 16, 2011 date, refinancing opportunities will not disappear if the March 16 deadline passes. Only a small slice of debt is subject to that deadline.
4) The maturity schedule would only be useful for knowing the statutory deadlines--latest date--applicable to other tranches of debt e.g., portion due on May 1, 2012, etc. As more than 98% of the GPR-supported debt is due later than May 1, 2011, substantial refinancing opportunities would exist were the state to pursue that strategy after adopting a credible budget.
5) If the governor truly wants to refinance 1.8% of the GPR-supported debt, he can always strip that provision from this larger package and allow for stand-alone legislation. My guess is that he won't. He's seeking any leverage he can obtain for his larger political battle. However, in the whole scheme of things, given that more than 98% of the debt would not be subject to the March 16 date, that leverage is actually very small.
The non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau office says the deadline is 03/16, absent further information (beyond just your opinion) that is the date that seems most likely.
I've already covered that issue. The March 16 date applies only to the portion of debt that is expiring on May 1, 2011 ($165 million).
You could actually be right, but unless you find some actual facts, we may never know.
That issue was covered in multiple posts. This post brings everything together so that there is no question whatsoever on the issue.