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Thread: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    You don't think having only 1/4 the wealth of the average american household is poor?
    Most of them have that much?
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    That China and India will most likely have larger economies then the US is rather inevitiable at some point provided both continue with more open economies

    China does have 4 times the population of the US, meaning if the on a per capita basis the GDP of china is 1/3 of the US it will have a bigger economy. The majority of Chinese would still not have as good a standard of living as an average american, but China would still have a larger economy.

    Now as to why it is inevitable.

    Competition. Unless the US population grows at a dramatic rate to become at least half that of China, for the US economy can not grow as fast as that of China or India. The rising costs within the US would prevent that. Higher wages would drive business's out of the US to other cheaper countries. In a world where technology is avaliable anywhere, competitive advantages based on technology are short lived as other areas can obtain that tech to improve productivity. This means that the lowest cost areas will see the greatest economic growth (provided the needed infrustructure is avaliable). The US is not and can not be the lowest cost producer with high wages, nor can Canada or Europe. Meaning we will have low growth for an extended period of time as countries like India and China catch up.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite Chaos View Post
    There were similar predictions before Obama even began to run for President so how you blame him or the democrats is beyond me.
    I don't understand what the problem is. Why is ANYONE to blame? Why is it "America's decline"? --
    Not sure why you quoted me along with those trying to blame the current Obama administration...

    I was pointing out (and a couple others read my post properly and understood) that the predictions of India and China developing the largest economies have been predicted far earlier than the story in the OP - thus blaming Obama for something predicted before he even ran for power is foolish.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Councilman View Post
    This prediction is based on current trends but they could change dramatically if we had people at the top with a clue about how to build the economy, and create an atmosphere that is conducive to business as apposed to it like The Democrats and the Amateur in Chief Obama are.

    We also need a new ruling that makes it illegal for any defense contracts to be allowed with any Nations other than England, Canada, Israel, Japan.
    This would help create jobs here at home.

    Even other nations that are or seem to be our allies could for political reasons be a problem in a tight situation.
    There also needs to be some protectionism when it comes to things like the NYSE that should never be allowed to be in foreign hands.
    As long as republican are only willing to cut jobs from the budget, and the republican governors hell bent on lowering wages, we won't make the top 30 in economic strength in the world. We are a fialing economy with jobs to form a strong tax base and no taxes to the rich to pay off the debt. NOT providing jobs BUT giving tax cuts will not make us more than a 3rd world nation in 5 years if we don't get rid of republicans and start putting our workers back to work by regulation business and getting rid of monopolies.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Creek View Post
    As long as republican are only willing to cut jobs from the budget, and the republican governors hell bent on lowering wages, we won't make the top 30 in economic strength in the world. We are a fialing economy with jobs to form a strong tax base and no taxes to the rich to pay off the debt. NOT providing jobs BUT giving tax cuts will not make us more than a 3rd world nation in 5 years if we don't get rid of republicans and start putting our workers back to work by regulation business and getting rid of monopolies.
    I have not heard one Governor say they wanted to cut Jobs only put a halt to bloated wages and benefits that are a major contributor to budget problems.

    Retirements alone are big contributor and along with too many high taxes and regulations cause businesses to leave States like California and move to Texas and other States that have more reasonable rules laws and Taxes.

    Too many Liberals like to make up their own reasons to oppose what is needed claiming it's in the name of the worker when that truth is, it's about being partisan, and not being able to admit the truth, which is Government has because too big and needs to be shrunk to what is needed not what people like Obama want. This goes for State and Federal Governments.

    Logic tells us what is needed and that is why Liberals don't get it.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Councilman View Post
    I have not heard one Governor say they wanted to cut Jobs only put a halt to bloated wages and benefits that are a major contributor to budget problems.

    Retirements alone are big contributor and along with too many high taxes and regulations cause businesses to leave States like California and move to Texas and other States that have more reasonable rules laws and Taxes.

    Too many Liberals like to make up their own reasons to oppose what is needed claiming it's in the name of the worker when that truth is, it's about being partisan, and not being able to admit the truth, which is Government has because too big and needs to be shrunk to what is needed not what people like Obama want. This goes for State and Federal Governments.

    Logic tells us what is needed and that is why Liberals don't get it.
    If you're right, then why won't Walker accept the compromise that's been offered to him? The Unions have accepted the contribution rate changes. The only thing they won't accept is elimination of their rights to collective bargaining.

    If it were solely about the budget - and NOT union-busting - Walker would accept this.

    And I suppose you think allowing the governor the right to sell off public utilities without bids at any price he sees fit to anyone he sees fit is going to be good for the budget, right?

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Why would America having a larger economy, automatically mean that Indians and Chinese are going to be impoversihed? Is that a round-about-way of saying that if they can't feed their own people that it's America's fault?
    Nope, it's basic arithmetic. It's saying that they have a lot more people than we do, and GDP = GDP per capita * population. So if they have 4 times more people than us and don't have bigger economies, it means that their people produce less than 1/4 the wealth of Americans. In other words, they're poor.

    I, for one, welcome the breathtaking growth rates that China has seen in the past three decades, and that India is finally starting to enjoy in the last 15 years. The world will be far better off for it. Hopefully they both surpass the American economy as soon as possible, and continue growing well beyond it.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-26-11 at 06:48 PM.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    My question still stands.

    I disagree that China and India, have to be at the #1, or #2 spot tp keep their populations from being impoverished.
    China and India have, by far, the largest populations in the world. It's not even close.

    #1 China: 1,345 million
    #2 India: 1,195 million
    #3 United States: 311 million

    Therefore, if a nation with 1/4 of their population is out-producing them in terms of GDP, it means that their population is far poorer than ours. And indeed, the GDP per capita statistics (adjusted for purchasing power parity) indicate that that is the case:

    United States: $47,400
    China: $7,400
    India: $3,400

    OK, so imagine a world a few decades in the future, where China and India are NOT as poor as they are now. Suppose that China's GDP per capita was $20,000 and India's GDP per capita was $10,000. Not rich, but not impoverished. By virtue of the fact that they have far larger populations than we do, their economies would become #1 and #2 by default.

    To wish that China and India were anything other than the first and second largest economies in the world, is to wish that they have extremely low GDPs per capita...and therefore high levels of poverty.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-26-11 at 06:59 PM.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    Very nice speech, everyone can applaude. Now let us know what you think the implications of 1-3% growth are to people who libe in America. You say that this does not mean we will be worse off. Check your math, How does a country running a 10% of GDP deficit from 2% and not adversely impact long term standard of living.
    I don't think anyone would disagree that a 10% deficit is unsustainable.

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut
    America's standard of living will decline and this administration understands that. Why do you think they have a inflationary policy in the U.S. Forget about reported statistics about core inflation. Try to understand what a family of 4 making 40K spends their money on. Food, housing, medical, taxes and let me know other than home prices what is rising at a 1% rate. So we have wage stagnation with inflation, a sneaky way to lower standard of living.
    But core inflation is a better measure. A lot of those prices are not rising due to an expanding money supply, they're rising due to other factors. Food, for example, is rising due to increases in the price of oil. If taxes are rising for you, it's mostly due to the actions of your state or local government, as federal taxes are as low as they have been in decades. The prices of housing and medical bills have more to do with laws specifically regulating those items, rather than monetary policy, and are also not tied to general inflation.

    I'm not saying that the government has done everything they can to control those (for example, I think housing prices would be a lot lower if the government would stop subsidizing homeownership). But the price increases of those specific things aren't due to inflation.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-26-11 at 07:08 PM.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    China and India have, by far, the largest populations in the world. It's not even close.

    #1 China: 1,345 million
    #2 India: 1,195 million
    #3 United States: 311 million

    Therefore, if a nation with 1/4 of their population is out-producing them in terms of GDP, it means that their population is far poorer than ours. And indeed, the GDP per capita statistics (adjusted for purchasing power parity) indicate that that is the case:

    United States: $47,400
    China: $7,400
    India: $3,400

    OK, so imagine a world a few decades in the future, where China and India are NOT as poor as they are now. Suppose that China's GDP per capita was $20,000 and India's GDP per capita was $10,000. Not rich, but not impoverished. By virtue of the fact that they have far larger populations than we do, their economies would become #1 and #2 by default.

    To wish that China and India were anything other than the first and second largest economies in the world, is to wish that they have extremely low GDPs per capita...and therefore high levels of poverty.
    And believing that you can have them not be impoverished, and the US still at number 1 is wishful thinking.
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