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Thread: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    The US was in many way arguably destined to become a top, if not the top, economy at the point of its birth. It had many advantages not found in other countries at that time, it had no natural enemies or hostile powers surrounding it, which meant defense spending could be kept a very small part of the budget, it had seemingly limitless amounts of territory to expand over, it had a government which put the individual citizen in a position not seen anywhere else in the world at that time, and it had leaders, political and business, which not only were willing but praised for trying and experimenting new things. Unlike many other nations at the time, the US had almost no interest in stability as it was defined by European powers for example. Of course thats a simple model but merely looking at the geography and political situation in the late 1700s and early 1800s should show the US had a pretty good position to start from. And of course it wasn't guaranteed, any number of things like the Civil War or a poor performance in the War of 1812 could have squashed it, but again it had a good starting position.

    However today the world is different, and while political and social constraints hold back what should easily be the worlds top economy and nation, Russia, many of the factors which held other parts of the world down no longer exist. And while they have problems of their own, they certainly are in a much better position to take on the world economically. For example India from 1800 to 2000 underwent 3 changes which moved it from a simple colony and holding, to a potential world economic power. Those were, the access to technology on par with the rest of the world, the end of the caste system, and the induction of capitalism. Of course the description is simple and the actual task of implementing all those things is great, but a few changes can make a world of difference. For example access to technology is one thing, actually integrating it into society is a whole other matter. But imagine if India were totally technologically updated, like S.Korea, Japan, the US or Europe, ended social prejudices, and instilled a philosophy of individual accomplishment(which is has in many ways to an insane degree). It would easily be the top economy in the world, and its enroute to those goals.

    And thats a very simple model and argument because frankly the length of any accurate and detailed explanation of why some countries are better suited for economic growth and power would, and should, occupy a book.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite Chaos View Post
    There were similar predictions before Obama even began to run for President so how you blame him or the democrats is beyond me.

    National Intelligence Council: Robert Hutchings report in USA Today- 2005

    I once had another link on this from about 2003 but can't find it right now - besides, it's not a "blame Obama" thing.
    BM only knows "blame the dems". He's a hoot to watch spin.

    But you're right. This situation has been on the radar of most long range policy advisors and analysts for over 30 years. Stretching back to the Reagan years.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    It's a GOOD thing that we'll be #3 in 2050. China and India have a HELL of a lot more people than we do. If they don't surpass our GDP by then, it will mean that they're still desperately impoverished. I can't possibly fathom why anyone would want to consign 40% of humanity to poverty just so that you can claim that America has the biggest penis.









    I don't understand what the problem is. Why is ANYONE to blame? Why is it "America's decline"? It doesn't mean that we're any worse off than before, it means that the 2.5 billion people in China and India are a lot BETTER off. If we manage 1-3% economic growth and China/India manage 5-7% economic growth for the next few decades, that's fantastic. It means that a huge fraction of humanity will be lifted out of poverty, and the world will be far better off for it.

    China has more than four times our population. That means that the average Chinese only needs to be one-quarter as wealthy as the average American in order to match our GDP. If they DON'T become the world's largest economy, something is seriously wrong.
    Very nice speech, everyone can applaude. Now let us know what you think the implications of 1-3% growth are to people who libe in America. You say that this does not mean we will be worse off. Check your math, How does a country running a 10% of GDP deficit from 2% and not adversely impact long term standard of living.

    America's standard of living will decline and this administration understands that. Why do you think they have a inflationary policy in the U.S. Forget about reported statistics about core inflation. Try to understand what a family of 4 making 40K spends their money on. Food, housing, medical, taxes and let me know other than home prices what is rising at a 1% rate. So we have wage stagnation with inflation, a sneaky way to lower standard of living.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    It's a GOOD thing that we'll be #3 in 2050. China and India have a HELL of a lot more people than we do. If they don't surpass our GDP by then, it will mean that they're still desperately impoverished. I can't possibly fathom why anyone would want to consign 40% of humanity to poverty just so that you can claim that America has the biggest penis.









    I don't understand what the problem is. Why is ANYONE to blame? Why is it "America's decline"? It doesn't mean that we're any worse off than before, it means that the 2.5 billion people in China and India are a lot BETTER off. If we manage 1-3% economic growth and China/India manage 5-7% economic growth for the next few decades, that's fantastic. It means that a huge fraction of humanity will be lifted out of poverty, and the world will be far better off for it.

    China has more than four times our population. That means that the average Chinese only needs to be one-quarter as wealthy as the average American in order to match our GDP. If they DON'T become the world's largest economy, something is seriously wrong.
    Why would America having a larger economy, automatically mean that Indians and Chinese are going to be impoversihed? Is that a round-about-way of saying that if they can't feed their own people that it's America's fault?
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Why would America having a larger economy, automatically mean that Indians and Chinese are going to be impoversihed? Is that a round-about-way of saying that if they can't feed their own people that it's America's fault?
    Not automatically no.

    What I think he is trying to say, is that India and China are going through the same thing the US did long ago (and every other industrialized country), going from a near slave (and literally) economy to a much more prosperous economy, and that is done by selling loads of stuff to places like the US for next to nothing. So while we enjoy cheap goods, and the Chinese/Indians at first do the jobs for much much lower than we are willing, then it is in our interest to keep the Chinese/Indians in "poverty" doing the job cheaply. Now in reality, over time, the wages will go up and up, making the prices of our goods go up (imported inflation) and so on and so on.

    So in many ways, as long as the Chinese are as corrupt as they are, and keep their masses in poverty then it benefits us on prices at least.. now jobs is another matter and a whole other discussion.. those jobs we use to do in manufacturing have been exported to cheaper places.. because we desire cheap goods over jobs.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Why would America having a larger economy, automatically mean that Indians and Chinese are going to be impoversihed? Is that a round-about-way of saying that if they can't feed their own people that it's America's fault?
    Oh my god... NO! NO, that is not what he is trying to say. He is simply saying that in order to remain #1, China and India would have to be lower than #1. China and India have so many more people than the US that, if they are anything but #1 and #2, their people would of necessity be impoverished, since the simple math indicates that inevitability. So, if you hope for the US to remain #1, the reality is that you, by extension, must hope for the impoverishment of 40% of the world's population. He is questioning why anyone would hope such a thing.

    In short, you can't hope for both the US to remain #1 and at the same time hope for the Chinese and Indian people to rise out of poverty.

    All you have to do to show this to be false would be to devise a scenario where China and India would have their general population with a high standard of living and the US have such a much higher standard of living that we are still #1. Does this seem realistic to you?

    The relevance to this thread is that some of the people are trying to say that this has something to do with bad economic policy. Kandahar (and Wiseone a few posts up ^^) have indicated that this is hardly the case.
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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    If people would stop having the kneejerk "BEST COUNTRY EVER AT EVERYTHING" reaction in every single situation, maybe they'd stop and actually think about this situation. Like others have mentioned, the population difference means this is going to happen regardless of how well America is doing.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite Chaos View Post
    There were similar predictions before Obama even began to run for President so how you blame him or the democrats is beyond me.

    National Intelligence Council: Robert Hutchings report in USA Today- 2005

    I once had another link on this from about 2003 but can't find it right now - besides, it's not a "blame Obama" thing.
    It's always been a tactic of the GOP to blame democrats for all the problems they help cause. Bush destroys the economy and leaves Obama with a country teetering on depression..Obama gets blamed..........Millions of jobs lost overseas for the last decade.........Obama gets blamed. Eventually they will figure out it's their people ruining the country. I just hope it's not too late.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezaad View Post
    Oh my god... NO! NO, that is not what he is trying to say. He is simply saying that in order to remain #1, China and India would have to be lower than #1. China and India have so many more people than the US that, if they are anything but #1 and #2, their people would of necessity be impoverished, since the simple math indicates that inevitability. So, if you hope for the US to remain #1, the reality is that you, by extension, must hope for the impoverishment of 40% of the world's population. He is questioning why anyone would hope such a thing.

    In short, you can't hope for both the US to remain #1 and at the same time hope for the Chinese and Indian people to rise out of poverty.

    All you have to do to show this to be false would be to devise a scenario where China and India would have their general population with a high standard of living and the US have such a much higher standard of living that we are still #1. Does this seem realistic to you?

    The relevance to this thread is that some of the people are trying to say that this has something to do with bad economic policy. Kandahar (and Wiseone a few posts up ^^) have indicated that this is hardly the case.
    My question still stands.

    I disagree that China and India, have to be at the #1, or #2 spot tp keep their populations from being impoverished.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    My question still stands.

    I disagree that China and India, have to be at the #1, or #2 spot tp keep their populations from being impoverished.
    You don't think having only 1/4 the wealth of the average american household is poor?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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