Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

The parts in this article I consider most troubling:

For four days, rebels newly armed with anti-aircraft guns and Kalashnikovs battled forces loyal to Col. Gadhafi and commanded by one of his sons. After days of firefights, feints and an ambush on unarmed local sheiks, the regime forces surrendered their hold on the vital local airport Tuesday morning—placing nearly all of eastern Libya outside Col. Gadhafi's control.

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On Wednesday, several of the 300 to 350 pro-Gadhafi fighters captured in the airport siege—the many soldiers among them that locals say are mercenaries hired from other African countries—will face a popular trial.

"We expect they will be executed," said one of the residents, Fadhil al-Hadouthi, an unemployed 38-year-old who helped coordinate logistics and medical relief for the pro-democracy rebels who battled Mr. Gadhafi's forces.

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The fate of others may have already been determined, grimly. Earlier Tuesday in Sidi Burana, an Egyptian town on the border with Libya, Egyptian workers fleeing back home showed thumb-drive and cell-phone videos with pictures of what they said were captured pro-government mercenaries being viciously beaten in Baida. One video showed a dark skinned man, who the Egyptian workers said was a mercenary from Chad, being beaten to death. Another video showed what they said were mutilated mercenary corpses.

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Source: The Wall Street Journal

The longer Gadhafi holds out the greater the chances of this developing into a rather bloody civil war.

What do mercenaries fight for? Money? They are scum who are willing to kill people for money. If they're killed mercilessly, sure, it's a shame that they didn't get to enjoy due process. Am I all that beat up about it? Not really.

The Gadhafi regime's brutality is disturbing. That more than 1,000 persons have reportedly died is distressing.

The captured mercenaries are not innocent victims. They made a deliberate choice to help the dictatorship violently oppress the country's own population, frequently knowingly and viciously targeting civilians. With no ties to the country and its people, they have engaged in some of the most brutal violence against Libya's people.

Having said that, I do not support violent retribution against the mercenaries. Instead, they should be tried and held to account, if convicted. There should be a proper judicial process. Where there is adequate evidence to convict the mercenaries who carried out crimes against humanity, those responsible should not escape justice.

Finally, I have little doubt that the regime is trying to foment a civil war. However, as word spreads about the regime's deliberate violence against Libya's people, tribal differences could temporarily give way to a de facto consensus to topple the regime. Afterward, though, there will be real risk that tribal rivalries could reassert themselves if the narrow consensus concerning the dictatorship can't be transformed into a broader consensus necessary to hold together the country. It is a risky situation.

Hatuey said:

What do mercenaries fight for? Money? They are scum who are willing to kill people for money. If they're killed mercilessly, sure, it's a shame that they didn't get to enjoy due process. Am I all that beat up about it? Not really.

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My concern is that such violence and hostility tends to linger and fester. People have a nasty habit of making broad associations as a result. Just because the groups they are opposing have behaved brutally does not mean brutality in retaliation should be accepted. In fact, it only increases the chances that any government they install will behave in a similar manner.

Gaddafi will get what's coming to him. There is no mercy in Africa, and that goes both ways...

Demon of Light said:

The parts in this article I consider most troubling:

According to this analysis, the violence may already be a civil war more about rivalries between tribes than about issues.

Uprising in Libya: 'Survival Hinges on Tribal Solidarity' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International







Source: The Wall Street Journal

The longer Gadhafi holds out the greater the chances of this developing into a rather bloody civil war.

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According to this analysis, the violence may already be a civil war more about rivalries between tribes than about issues.

Uprising in Libya: 'Survival Hinges on Tribal Solidarity' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

From The New York Times regarding the conduct of the mercenaries in Tripoli:

Witnesses said groups of heavily armed militiamen and mercenaries from other African countries cruised the streets in pickups, spraying crowds with machine-gun fire and then carting away bodies in vans. On Wednesday, a resident said mercenaries were still roaming the city and enforcing a reign of terror.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24libya.html

As noted previously, the mercenaries are no innocent victims. I favor trials for the mercenaries and then punishment for those convicted of crimes against humanity. The mercenaries should be held fully accountable for their crimes against humanity.

Just remember that Gadhafi has 44thousand soldiers fiercely loyal to him. The regular army has only about 66thousand and some are defecting. Then you add in the mercenaries that are on Gadhafi's side. Well things are going to be very violent. Do I believe Gadhafi will be ousted? No.

Gray_Fox_86 said:

Just remember that Gadhafi has 44thousand soldiers fiercely loyal to him. The regular army has only about 66thousand and some are defecting. Then you add in the mercenaries that are on Gadhafi's side. Well things are going to be very violent. Do I believe Gadhafi will be ousted? No.

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Right now, I suspect that two possible outcomes are probably more likely than others:

1) The country winds up fractured with Gadhafi retaining control of Tripoli/nearby areas, but having lost much of the rest of the country, possibly including the oil-producing areas.
2) Tripoli's residents rise up in desperation, the mercenaries/other loyalists attempt to carry out massacres, greater military defections lead to an overthrow or assassination of Gadhafi and his son.

IMO, it would be helpful if the UN Security Council adopted a resolution barring commercial transactions with Libya until Gadhafi stepped down and also ordered the freezing of Gadhafi's considerable overseas assets. Such an outcome would cut off the supply of cash needed to finance the mercenaries, destroying their raison d'etre for continuing to support the dictatorship. As the number of mercenaries falls, the military forces aligned with Libya's people would have a better chance at destroying the shrinking pockets of mercenaries. Ultimately, the regime's foundation of power could disintegrate under such a scenario. Afterward, whether the various tribal factions could reach a mutually acceptable accommodation would shape the early stages of Libya's post-Gadhafi future.

More on Gadhafi's mercenaries. This is from the BBC's live coverage:

1753: The Libyan Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim Dabbaschi, tells the BBC French for Africa that he has information that mercenaries loyal to Col Gaddafi have been loading the bodies of people killed in Tripoli on planes. He says they are then taken to the desert near the town of Sirte, where they are being dumped.

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As noted previously, the mercenaries who seek profits in carrying out the Gadhafi regime's atrocities are not innocent victims. Those captured should be tried and, if convicted, should be held fully accountable for their crimes.

donsutherland1 said:

Right now, I suspect that two possible outcomes are probably more likely than others:

1) The country winds up fractured with Gadhafi retaining control of Tripoli/nearby areas, but having lost much of the rest of the country, possibly including the oil-producing areas.
2) Tripoli's residents rise up in desperation, the mercenaries/other loyalists attempt to carry out massacres, greater military defections lead to an overthrow or assassination of Gadhafi and his son.

IMO, it would be helpful if the UN Security Council adopted a resolution barring commercial transactions with Libya until Gadhafi stepped down and also ordered the freezing of Gadhafi's considerable overseas assets. Such an outcome would cut off the supply of cash needed to finance the mercenaries, destroying their raison d'etre for continuing to support the dictatorship. As the number of mercenaries falls, the military forces aligned with Libya's people would have a better chance at destroying the shrinking pockets of mercenaries. Ultimately, the regime's foundation of power could disintegrate under such a scenario. Afterward, whether the various tribal factions could reach a mutually acceptable accommodation would shape the early stages of Libya's post-Gadhafi future.

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I would expect Gadhafi to have considerable assets in country to maintain these forces for some time. All cutting off Libya would achieve is screwing the country up more than it already has been.

Hatuey said:

What do mercenaries fight for? Money? They are scum who are willing to kill people for money. If they're killed mercilessly, sure, it's a shame that they didn't get to enjoy due process. Am I all that beat up about it? Not really.

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Mercs don't rate protection under international law.

Let's just hope that Qhadaffi doesn't get really desperate. It would suck for the U.S. to be seen as sitting back and allowing this to happen.

WASHINGTON—The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos.

Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to militants operating in countries like Sudan and Chad.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...62820431712238.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

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Today, Libya's ambassador to the UN reiterated his call for international sanctions against the Gadhafi regime and its supporters. The BBC reported:

Mr Shalgham [Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham ] told the UN tangible, effective action must be taken to stop Col Gaddafi, his sons and their supporters from what they are doing. He called for sanctions against the Gaddafi family and their supporters.

By reaffirming his call for sanctions, the Ambassador undercut the rationale likely to be raised by some states that such a resolution would be interfering with state sovereignty. Whether the UN adopts a meaningful resolution on a timely basis remains to be seen. IMO, prospects for such a resolution tonight, tomorrow, or this weekend remain very slim.

I wonder why Gadhafi's opponents don't get organized and go after him directly.

Councilman said:

I wonder why Gadhafi's opponents don't get organized and go after him directly.

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There may be numerous reasons. For example, he's currently residing in a fortified compound backed by 8,000-10,000 heavily armed special forces troops and foreign mercenaries. A frontal assault might not be the best way at going about things. Securing surrounding territory and then sealing off the 6 square km compound from money, food and water might be more effective unless the anti-dictatorship forces can bring air power to bear.

^Probably because it still is a bit too dangerous. While 4 military aircraft may have defected or not carried out their orders. There still are many more that have and continue to do so. Gadhafi is not out of the fight just yet.

I believe Gaddafi has air assets & tanks which I doubt the rebels have an answer for. I read somewhere that he kept all his heavy weapons in safe places with mostly small arms in the east. Unless his air force will stand down I doubt he will be defeated short of a foreign air force enforcing a no fly zone. Anti- Tank weapons can be found but it may take time to get them & train the people who need to use them. There may be a few guys in the military on the rebel side that know how I would bet its not enough yet to make a difference.

Same thing that happened to Ceaușescu is going to happen to Qadaffi.

Something i didn't consider was i wonder if he has people standing by to destroy or completely disrupt the countries oil supply if a foreign power intervened...

I'm wonder what these mercenaries know or think about the situation, they have to know if Gaddafi is removed no one is going to pay them for their "services." So I'm thinking either they believe they will win, or at least that Gaddafi will be around long enough to pay them, or they think its worth the risk. OR they are being paid for their time, and not just X amount until the job is done. In that case I'm wondering how much money Gaddafi has, and if he runs out will the mercenaries abandon him then? OR the worst of the diehard supporters of Gaddafi are controlling thing like all access in and out of Tripoli, and therefore have essentially trapped the mercenaries there or at least upped the ante if they choose to leave because they'd have to fight their way out.

Wiseone said:

I'm wonder what these mercenaries know or think about the situation, they have to know if Gaddafi is removed no one is going to pay them for their "services." So I'm thinking either they believe they will win, or at least that Gaddafi will be around long enough to pay them, or they think its worth the risk. OR they are being paid for their time, and not just X amount until the job is done. In that case I'm wondering how much money Gaddafi has, and if he runs out will the mercenaries abandon him then? OR the worst of the diehard supporters of Gaddafi are controlling thing like all access in and out of Tripoli, and therefore have essentially trapped the mercenaries there or at least upped the ante if they choose to leave because they'd have to fight their way out.

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From what I've read, it doesn't seem that these people have been hired to fight in this conflict. Gaddhafi, apparently, for years has been arming and training various rebel groups from other African nations and allowing them to find safe harbor in Libya when necessary, and their own safety and well being depends on Gaddhafi's survival. In addition, some other Africans have over the years moved to Libya and joined the various security services, and these are also loyal to Gaddhafi. In addition, there are large numbers of other Africans who have come to Libya to work, and some of these may also be loyal to Gaddhafi. It seems that the rebels are calling any non Libyan who is fighting for Gaddhafi a mercenary, but many of these might just as easily be called non Libyan partisans.