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Thread: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Right now, I suspect that two possible outcomes are probably more likely than others:

    1) The country winds up fractured with Gadhafi retaining control of Tripoli/nearby areas, but having lost much of the rest of the country, possibly including the oil-producing areas.
    2) Tripoli's residents rise up in desperation, the mercenaries/other loyalists attempt to carry out massacres, greater military defections lead to an overthrow or assassination of Gadhafi and his son.

    IMO, it would be helpful if the UN Security Council adopted a resolution barring commercial transactions with Libya until Gadhafi stepped down and also ordered the freezing of Gadhafi's considerable overseas assets. Such an outcome would cut off the supply of cash needed to finance the mercenaries, destroying their raison d'etre for continuing to support the dictatorship. As the number of mercenaries falls, the military forces aligned with Libya's people would have a better chance at destroying the shrinking pockets of mercenaries. Ultimately, the regime's foundation of power could disintegrate under such a scenario. Afterward, whether the various tribal factions could reach a mutually acceptable accommodation would shape the early stages of Libya's post-Gadhafi future.
    I would expect Gadhafi to have considerable assets in country to maintain these forces for some time. All cutting off Libya would achieve is screwing the country up more than it already has been.
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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Quote Originally Posted by Hatuey View Post
    What do mercenaries fight for? Money? They are scum who are willing to kill people for money. If they're killed mercilessly, sure, it's a shame that they didn't get to enjoy due process. Am I all that beat up about it? Not really.
    Mercs don't rate protection under international law.

    Let's just hope that Qhadaffi doesn't get really desperate. It would suck for the U.S. to be seen as sitting back and allowing this to happen.

    WASHINGTON—The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos.

    Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to militants operating in countries like Sudan and Chad.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
    Last edited by apdst; 02-24-11 at 03:07 PM.
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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Today, Libya's ambassador to the UN reiterated his call for international sanctions against the Gadhafi regime and its supporters. The BBC reported:

    Mr Shalgham [Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham ] told the UN tangible, effective action must be taken to stop Col Gaddafi, his sons and their supporters from what they are doing. He called for sanctions against the Gaddafi family and their supporters.

    By reaffirming his call for sanctions, the Ambassador undercut the rationale likely to be raised by some states that such a resolution would be interfering with state sovereignty. Whether the UN adopts a meaningful resolution on a timely basis remains to be seen. IMO, prospects for such a resolution tonight, tomorrow, or this weekend remain very slim.

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    I wonder why Gadhafi's opponents don't get organized and go after him directly.

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Quote Originally Posted by Councilman View Post
    I wonder why Gadhafi's opponents don't get organized and go after him directly.
    There may be numerous reasons. For example, he's currently residing in a fortified compound backed by 8,000-10,000 heavily armed special forces troops and foreign mercenaries. A frontal assault might not be the best way at going about things. Securing surrounding territory and then sealing off the 6 square km compound from money, food and water might be more effective unless the anti-dictatorship forces can bring air power to bear.

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    ^Probably because it still is a bit too dangerous. While 4 military aircraft may have defected or not carried out their orders. There still are many more that have and continue to do so. Gadhafi is not out of the fight just yet.

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    I believe Gaddafi has air assets & tanks which I doubt the rebels have an answer for. I read somewhere that he kept all his heavy weapons in safe places with mostly small arms in the east. Unless his air force will stand down I doubt he will be defeated short of a foreign air force enforcing a no fly zone. Anti- Tank weapons can be found but it may take time to get them & train the people who need to use them. There may be a few guys in the military on the rebel side that know how I would bet its not enough yet to make a difference.

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Same thing that happened to Ceaușescu is going to happen to Qadaffi.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    Something i didn't consider was i wonder if he has people standing by to destroy or completely disrupt the countries oil supply if a foreign power intervened...

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    Re: Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

    I'm wonder what these mercenaries know or think about the situation, they have to know if Gaddafi is removed no one is going to pay them for their "services." So I'm thinking either they believe they will win, or at least that Gaddafi will be around long enough to pay them, or they think its worth the risk. OR they are being paid for their time, and not just X amount until the job is done. In that case I'm wondering how much money Gaddafi has, and if he runs out will the mercenaries abandon him then? OR the worst of the diehard supporters of Gaddafi are controlling thing like all access in and out of Tripoli, and therefore have essentially trapped the mercenaries there or at least upped the ante if they choose to leave because they'd have to fight their way out.

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