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Thread: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Degreez View Post
    It will take a lot more than the Revolutionary Guard standing down to have any type of monumental change in Iran. You have the Supreme Leader, the President, the Majjils, the Guardian Council, and the Expediency Council that are still in control of all the important decisions.
    Without the force of the Revolutionary Guard backing them up, all of those institutions could very easily fall by the wayside. None of those institutions are the ones with big guns.
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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    At best, for the sake of the Islamic Revolution they will push Ahmadinejad out of office, which will preserve the system while providing enough of a win to placate protesters.
    I don't think that's going to cut it. Unlike two years ago, the protesters' anger is directed at Khameini, not Ahmadinejad. According to Wikileaks, Ahmadinejad is actually far less crazy than he often appears. In fact, he was playing the role of the liberal during the last round of protests. A couple years ago, he suggested that the regime placate the protesters by allowing more freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and social freedoms. For that suggestion, the chief of the IRGC slapped him in the face.

    It seems like the IRGC chief doesn't have much support from his underlings though, from the sound of this letter they wrote to him.
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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by scourge99 View Post
    Perhaps its just lip service for PR.
    I don't really see how the specific IRGC commanders who made this promise would gain any PR, or why they would need it in the first place...It makes more sense to take them at their word and assume that they truly don't want to fire on the protesters.

    From the regime's perspective, this development should be terrifying. If people believe that they can protest without consequence, they are more likely to do so and the regime is likely to fall.
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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I don't really see how the specific IRGC commanders who made this promise would gain any PR
    Then why would they make this statement publicly rather than through less open communications? They are playing politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I or why they would need it in the first place.
    They have a political element to their group, do they not? The iranian gov't is always playing up "the people" and "the revolution" but as we know its just a political gimmick. As soon as "the revolution" and "the people" conflict with what those in charge want then crackdowns occur.

    Seems like IRGC might be playing the same game to their advantage.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I It makes more sense to take them at their word and assume that they truly don't want to fire on the protesters.
    My point isn't that they secretly wish to fire on them so this appears irrelevant.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I From the regime's perspective, this development should be terrifying. If people believe that they can protest without consequence, they are more likely to do so and the regime is likely to fall.
    I definitely see your point. I'm no expert on Iranian politics. I'm just presenting another perspective based on what I do know of Iran.
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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    The only thing that keeps dictatorships in power in the face of popular revolt is the military's willingness to crush the rebellion. It sounds like the Revolutionary Guard may have just lost its nerve, having reportedly pledged not to fire on peaceful protesters. Could this be the death knell of the Islamic Republic?
    Since when does "Hezbollah" have a problem with killing women and children or hiding behind them? Read your KORAN. If these IMAMS believe these crowds of pro democracy demonstrators are "persecuting" the representatives of the faith, "Smte them on the Neck until you have routed them, Slay them wherever you find them, WARFARE IS ORDAINED IN YOU." (Surah 2:216-217, 190-194, 47: 4) Strange that the only nation that has not been condemned by this Administration for HUMAN RIGHTS violation is IRAN.

    This is much like His Speech on Democratic CIVILITY. Simply look to Wisconsin....and the signs being carried around, and the Representatives who are calling the Governor, HITLER, or a TERRORIST. Real CIVILITY coming from the left. I have yet to see the PREZ come out and point out the incivility coming from the left, no what THE PEOPLE get from the WHITE HOUSE, "this is an attack on the Unions". This entire uprising even here in the states is being manipulated by those who would hope to destroy Capitalism, nothing else. They are even willing to get into bed with the terrorists.
    Last edited by Walter; 02-18-11 at 09:09 PM.

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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    The revolutionary guard has a massive interest in keeping the current system, seeing as how they own a large portion of the Iranian economy. The last round of protests was a response to such a corrupt economic system, and the guards are aware that they won't get to keep their wealth if the people are truly in charge. I would bet on incremental reforms or scapegoating a public figurehead, but I doubt the overall system will be replaced.

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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    While this is a good sign, I wouldn't say that it is "the death knell" of Iran. People in power will do whatever they have to to keep the status quo. If the Iranian Guard won't shoot protesters, then they'll find someone who will.
    I agree. The Mullahs will call in the military, and bring holy death down on the protesters. I don't think they care how many civilians die as long as they retain power for themselves.

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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    The mullahs aren't about to watch happen in Iran what's happened in other countries. These poor Iranians are going to have to be willing to die by the thousands to overthrow Ahmedinejad and the Islamist state.

    Then again, no one knows what happens in these situations better than Iranians. They watched their revolution get hijacked once by Islamists in the 70s. Can they manage to do it again?

    Again, Ahmedinejad is willing to kill a million people if he has to.
    We need to get some weapons in to them, so they can have a fighting chance.
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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    They may sack a few officials to hopefully placate the populace, but that's probably the maximum gesture.

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    Re: Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

    Quote Originally Posted by Tashah View Post
    They may sack a few officials to hopefully placate the populace, but that's probably the maximum gesture.
    That would probably be a mistake on their part. I think history shows that a dictatorship faced with a popular uprising has two options: 1) Make a small concession to the population, which demonstrates weakness and encourages further demands, or 2) Dig in your heels and shoot/beat/arrest them. The regimes that have survived uprisings have almost without exception gone with Option #2.

    Egypt went with Option #1. Iran went with #2 last time around, but it appears that there may be less support in the IRGC for doing it again. I think we have to remember that Iran's regime is not monolithic, and the government depends on the Revolutionary Guard and the Basiji to do what is necessary to suppress rebellion. If they won't do it, then I'm not sure that it matters how intransigent Khameini wants to be.
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