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Thread: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    All the assumptions and speculations when the Intelligence Agency of the United States was caught totally by surprise by this entire development....but of course, some people are more informed than our covert intelligence gathering agencies..and know exactly what is going to happen in Egypt.

    US military chief acknowledges surprised by events in Egypt | Earth Times News

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    There's no credible evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood has penetrated the army to any great extent. The near-term will not witness Egypt's becoming a part of an "Islamic caliphate" as some pundits have suggested.
    In your opinion, of course. Yes?
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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Thankfully this string is about Egypt and not the UK.
    I'm personally sick of not being able to dunk a basketball because of racism.
    anon

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    If you look at Jordan and Algeria, the Muslim brotherhood does not dominate parliament, but they are large enough to form coalitions and influence policy. Egypt has been run by secular nationalists ever since the British left and a theocracy wouldn't gain traction. The MB knows it has the best chance of holding onto power through democratic means. They have no chance against the military and are well aware of that fact.

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by rathi View Post
    If you look at Jordan and Algeria, the Muslim brotherhood does not dominate parliament, but they are large enough to form coalitions and influence policy. Egypt has been run by secular nationalists ever since the British left and a theocracy wouldn't gain traction. The MB knows it has the best chance of holding onto power through democratic means. They have no chance against the military and are well aware of that fact.
    Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad, despite recrimination from the Left.
    It's given Egypt 30 years of a more secular rule to develop a non-Islamist culture- and avoid an Iran, or Saddam, or Sudan, or Ghadafi.

    Those bashing the USA for supporting Mubarak- please note local Arab tendencies and that their culture wasn't one of democracy- but Kings/Emirs etc.
    Becoming countries in name only but really Tribes with flags.

    Now in the 'age of information' they Are perhaps more ready for democracy and are in position for a more secular/sane one thanks to ... us.
    Last edited by mbig; 02-12-11 at 09:44 PM.
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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    In your opinion, of course. Yes?
    Not just my opinion. The pundits arguing that post-Mubarak Egypt is going to become a radical Islamic state have named no generals or any other military leader for that sake who are beholden or tied to the Muslim Brotherhood. They have ignored polling data that shows that the Muslim Brotherhood actually commands little support within Egypt. They have ignored other polls showing that even as Egyptians support a greater role for Islam, they worry about Islamic extremism. In stark contrast, even before the Iranian Revolution had been completed, there were news reports of the emergence of "a mass movement of Shiite Islamic revivalism." Egypt does not face such circumstances.

    Moreover, their thesis has already taken a substantial blow when Egypt's transitional military-led government announced that Egypt would honor all of its treaty obligations, including the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    This is of course in conflict with their stated mission and all past history.

    But as apdst said:
    Oh, well, since they said it...I'm sold!

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.
    What rules could they break? They don't have enough popular support to enact a coup, they don't have anyone in a position of power due to being suppressed for the last 30 years, and Egypt's army is powerful enough that they couldn't get any outside help for a coup if they tried.

    Exactly what do you think they could do?
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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad...
    I agree on that point. As I noted in the resignation thread, I believe that President Mubarak's legacy will be mixed. He was a political leader who was deeply committed to stability.Toward that end, he preserved the Egypt-Israel peace agreement his predecessor negotiated and signed. He patiently rebuilt relationships that numerous Arab states had severed following Egypt's signing the peace treaty. He played an energetic and continuing role in trying to facilitate regional peace, all in pursuit of a more stable region. During his tenure, Egypt largely escaped the tide of religious fundamentalism that swept some parts of the Middle East and North Africa. All of those are positive achievements for which the former President deserves credit. His downfall was his inability to address the gap between the economic and social needs of Egypt's population and what his government delivered that widened rapidly. All in all, he was a generally reliable ally.

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    Re: Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I am not surprised. The Muslim Brotherhood understands the realities of Egyptian society and knows that despite its organizational capabilities that it lacks the prospects to win the Egyptian Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority in any representative government. First, Egypt's secular nationalism is too great to permit a theocratic-type or fundamentalist religious government. Second, Egypt's military, which plays a strong role behind the scenes, would not tolerate such an outcome. It remains to be seen whether the Muslim Brotherhood will even be permitted a voice during the transitional period that is being led by Egypt's military.

    Consequently, the Muslim Brotherhood's near-term strategy is aimed at gaining a chance to participate in a future government.
    "Brotherhood members have met with ElBaradei in recent weeks — as have representatives of Egypt's other opposition parties — as the former International Atomic Energy Agency chief begins to rally politicians, activists and intellectuals of varying political stripes to press for democratic changes to Egypt's constitution. His expanding coalition is so far composed of individuals rather than parties, but its energizing impact on the Egyptian political scene is unprecedented. And its potential to go further than any of its predecessors is demonstrated by the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood — which declined to join ranks with the last pro-democracy effort, Kifaya (Enough) in 2005 — says it's ready to jump on ElBaradei's bandwagon. The Brotherhood's secretary general, Mahmoud Hussein, declared publicly last week that his group would join ElBaradei's coalition as a party — if he'll have them."

    Egypt: ElBaradei Talks to Muslim Brotherhood Opposition - TIME


    A Time article from last April. Not running their own Muslim Brotherhood candidate seems like a smart political move. Most indications are that elBaradei is the current favorite. Running a political candidate against him would have the natural result of losing his support. Much wiser (politically) to have an association/alignment with him (elBaradei) at this point and get themselves well established.

    .


    “Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”

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