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Thread: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    How is this anyone's achievement, but the Egyptian people protesting and the Egyptian army for not shooting the protesters?
    Who's going to get the blame if the army screws the pooch? The Egyptian people?
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Interpreting the constitution is the sole job of the SCOTUS. That is what they are there for.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Ok...where does Article 3 of The Constitution say interpret?

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Whether the military stays true to its commitment to hold elections on schedule in September remains to be seen. If elections are held, however, the military must have a political vehicle in place to counter opposition forces, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. The fate of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) thus lies in question. Without the NDP, the regime will have effectively collapsed and the military could run into greater difficulty in running the country. While the military council will be serving as the provisional government, it will likely want to retain as much of the ruling NDP as possible and incorporate elements of the opposition to manage the transition. Sustaining its hold over power while crafting a democratic government will be the biggest challenge for the military as it tries to avoid regime change while also dealing with a potential constitutional crisis.

    Read more: Red Alert: Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge | STRATFOR
    Red Alert: Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge | STRATFOR
    "We all of us know down here that politics is a tough game. And I don't think there's any point in being Irish if you don't know that the world is going to break your heart eventually."-Daniel Patrick Moynihan, December 5, 1963

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Who's going to get the blame if the army screws the pooch? The Egyptian people?
    Whether or not blame rightly or wrongly falls on the U.S., still does not change the fact it isn't President Bush or Obama's achievement. The achievement lies with those in Egypt.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    How is this anyone's achievement, but the Egyptian people protesting and the Egyptian army for not shooting the protesters?
    While you are true, the rhetoric back only a few years ago was that the Middle East would never change, that democratic fever is not in their blood, and any attempts to work on coercion toward that end are futile and self-destructive. While the coercion part may not have been removed from skeptics, there is renewed attention toward democratic regimes in the Middle East. Oddly, last night alone I saw both Paul Wolfowitz and Woolsey brought on CNN of all places as authentic authorities with regarding this situation.
    Last edited by Fiddytree; 02-11-11 at 01:46 PM.
    "We all of us know down here that politics is a tough game. And I don't think there's any point in being Irish if you don't know that the world is going to break your heart eventually."-Daniel Patrick Moynihan, December 5, 1963

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    Whether or not blame rightly or wrongly falls on the U.S., still does not change the fact it isn't President Bush or Obama's achievement. The achievement lies with those in Egypt.
    Ok, so we can rest assured that we won't hear people bashing the United States, when this goes to ****?
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Interpreting the constitution is the sole job of the SCOTUS. That is what they are there for.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Ok...where does Article 3 of The Constitution say interpret?

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Ok, so we can rest assured that we won't hear people bashing the United States, when this goes to ****?
    I am reminded of when the standard talking point was that it was liberals that "blame America first".

    My how the times have changed.
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by independent_thinker2002 View Post
    I am reminded of when the standard talking point was that it was liberals that "blame America first".

    My how the times have changed.
    No they haven't. Leftists have been blaming America for Mubarack, since this all began.

    I'm just curious, if that's going to be the standard talking point when this doesn't turn into a bed of roses.
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Interpreting the constitution is the sole job of the SCOTUS. That is what they are there for.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Ok...where does Article 3 of The Constitution say interpret?

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    While you are true, the rhetoric back only a few years ago was that the Middle East would never change, that democratic fever is not in their blood, and any attempts to work on coercion toward that end are futile and self-destructive. While the coercion part may not have been removed from skeptics, there is renewed attention toward democratic regimes in the Middle East. Oddly, last night alone I saw both Paul Wolfowitz and Woolsey brought on CNN of all places as authentic authorities with regarding this situation.
    I agree, but I feel like people throw around the word democracy forgetting that we are viewing the word in our American terms. I think the idea of democracy can work anywhere, but in some places it might be harder given certain belief structures or religious views. But do I think that our American idea of democracy will work in the Middle East? No because it is a different region and they will have to find what works best with them.

    Also, it will be interesting to see the U.S.'s stance if an Egyptian democratically elected government that has a rather anti-American stance appears. Will we be a big of fans of democracy then as we are now? I look very much forward to paying attention to Egypt over the next few weeks to find out some of these answers.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    I agree, but I feel like people throw around the word democracy forgetting that we are viewing the word in our American terms. I think the idea of democracy can work anywhere, but in some places it might be harder given certain belief structures or religious views. But do I think that our American idea of democracy will work in the Middle East? No because it is a different region and they will have to find what works best with them.

    Also, it will be interesting to see the U.S.'s stance if an Egyptian democratically elected government that has a rather anti-American stance appears. Will we be a big of fans of democracy then as we are now? I look very much forward to paying attention to Egypt over the next few weeks to find out some of these answers.
    Part of that will take a very long time to figure out.

    George Friedman wrote an interesting piece a few days ago that gives some additional perspective for part what the United States would look at: Israel's troubles.

    Here's a portion of the last half of the essay.

    If the treaty with Egypt is the foundation of Israel’s national security, it is logical that the Israelis should do everything possible to preserve it.

    This was not the fatal heart attack. It might not even have been more than indigestion. But recent events in Egypt point to a long-term problem with Israeli strategy. Given the strategic and ideological crosscurrents in Egypt, it is in Israel’s national interest to minimize the intensity of the ideological and make certain that Israel is not perceived as a threat. In Gaza, for example, Israel and Egypt may have shared a common interest in containing Hamas, and the next generation of Egyptian officers may share it as well. But what didn’t materialize in the streets this time could in the future: an Islamist rising. In that case, the Egyptian military might find it in its interest to preserve its power by accommodating the Islamists. At this point, Egypt becomes the problem and not part of the solution.

    Keeping Egypt from coming to this is the imperative of military dispassion. If the long-term center of gravity of Israel’s national security is at least the neutrality of Egypt, then doing everything to maintain that is a military requirement. That military requirement must be carried out by political means. That requires the recognition of priorities. The future of Gaza or the precise borders of a Palestinian state are trivial compared to preserving the treaty with Egypt. If it is found that a particular political strategy undermines the strategic requirement, then that political strategy must be sacrificed.

    In other words, the worst-case scenario for Israel would be a return to the pre-1978 relationship with Egypt without a settlement with the Palestinians. That would open the door for a potential two-front war with an intifada in the middle. To avoid that, the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms. The alternative is to stay the current course and let Israel take its chances. The question is where the greater safety lies. Israel has assumed that it lies with confrontation with the Palestinians. That’s true only if Egypt stays neutral. If the pressure on the Palestinians destabilizes Egypt, it is not the most prudent course.

    There are those in Israel who would argue that any release in pressure on the Palestinians will be met with rejection. If that is true, then, in my view, that is catastrophic news for Israel. In due course, ideological shifts and recalculations of Israeli intentions will cause a change in Egyptian policy. This will take several decades to turn into effective military force, and the first conflicts may well end in Israeli victory. But, as I have said before, it must always be remembered that no matter how many times Israel wins, it need only lose once to be annihilated.

    To some it means that Israel should remain as strong as possible. To me it means that Israel should avoid rolling the dice too often, regardless of how strong it thinks it is. The Mubarak affair might open a strategic reconsideration of the Israeli position.

    "Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration is republished with permission of STRATFOR."

    Read more: Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR

    Read more: Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR
    Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR
    Last edited by Fiddytree; 02-11-11 at 02:10 PM.
    "We all of us know down here that politics is a tough game. And I don't think there's any point in being Irish if you don't know that the world is going to break your heart eventually."-Daniel Patrick Moynihan, December 5, 1963

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    I agree, but I feel like people throw around the word democracy forgetting that we are viewing the word in our American terms. I think the idea of democracy can work anywhere, but in some places it might be harder given certain belief structures or religious views. But do I think that our American idea of democracy will work in the Middle East? No because it is a different region and they will have to find what works best with them.

    Also, it will be interesting to see the U.S.'s stance if an Egyptian democratically elected government that has a rather anti-American stance appears. Will we be a big of fans of democracy then as we are now? I look very much forward to paying attention to Egypt over the next few weeks to find out some of these answers.
    Any ME democracy will have to accommodate the Islamists. Re: Sadr in Iraq, part of the governing coalition with I think 5 prominent Ministerial posts. Consider them the religious right.

    We do have close ties with Egypt. I think Muslims are anti-American due to our support of dictatorships. Here's another chance to show otherwise.

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