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Thread: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

  1. #191
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by USA_1 View Post
    This is what I said:
    Hence the fallacy.

    Please, tell me I don't have to explain it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Currently, there are numerous trajectories along which Egypt could evolve. They include but are not limited to:

    1. Evolution into a stable reasonably democratic state (ideal case).
    2. Progress toward a reasonably democratic system of governance that fizzles over time and ultimately yields to renewed illiberal rule.
    3. Military rule that evolves into a new round of illiberal rule.
    4. Theocratic state (touted by some pundits, but not very likely in the near-term given the depth of secularist nationalism and also the role of the military)

    Immediately, the transition will likely lead to a de-emphasis on foreign policy in Egypt. In other words, Egypt's foreign policy footprint will shrink temporarily as the country focuses on devising a framework for future elections and, more importantly, tries to lay a foundation for more democratic governance. Other regional state and non-state actors will likely vie to fill that temporary policy vacuum. There will likely be good continuity in Egypt's foreign relations. Things will remain relatively unchanged vis-a-vis the U.S. and also the Israel-Egypt peace treaty will remain intact.

    Most likely, there will be elections anywhere from 6-18 months down the road, depending on how quickly a framework for transparent elections can be devised, electoral campaigns can be organized, etc. If at least some of the opposition figures such as Mohamed ElBaradei win significant political influence in the elections, one can expect a strong amount of continuity in Egypt's foreign relations. Indeed, in an op-ed published in The New York Times, Dr. ElBaradei addressed the "chaos or worse" case some have been arguing would follow in a post-Mubarak era. He wrote:

    Many, particularly in the West, have bought the Mubarak regime’s fiction that a democratic Egypt will turn into chaos or a religious state, abrogate the fragile peace with Israel and become hostile to the West. But the people of Egypt — the grandmothers in veils who have dared to share Tahrir Square with army tanks, the jubilant young people who have risked their lives for their first taste of these new freedoms — are not so easily fooled.

    Aside from creating a framework that produces progress toward more democratic governance--a task that will not be completed once elections are held, as democracy depends on laws and institutions, with elections being an important but not sole requirement of democratic governance--there will be some big challenges that confront Egypt's future government. None will be larger than enacting the economic reforms that will produce meaningful opportunities for Egypt's still rapidly growing and youthful population (median age is 24). Failure of that government to produce satisfactory outcomes over a few years could lead to disenchantment with the post-Mubarak system. It would be that disenchantment, more than political Islamist movements, that would pose perhaps the biggest threat to what would still be a very young democratic experience. That situation could lead to the second outcome sketched at the beginning of this message.

    In the end, one should not automatically assume the worst. There is a big opportunity for a new course for Egypt. There are also risks. For now, the journey to a new political future is at its starting point.
    Do you think it would be possible and beneficial to make Egypt a "most favored nation" for increased economic development and trade? To help them address the economic woes. Does "most favored nation" mean anything anymore?

  3. #193
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by Degreez View Post
    All you had to say was you did not know what fallacy I engaged in. And the reason I posted the initial fallacy in the first place was to show you what a generalization looked liked. It's amazing how you can't spot it when you engage in one. Talk about blinders.
    I was being very specific in my comments.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

  4. #194
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Hence the fallacy.

    Please, tell me I don't have to explain it.
    No fallacy there. So yes try to explain, if you can. Thats what we're here for.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by USA_1 View Post
    No fallacy there. So yes try to explain, if you can. Thats what we're here for.
    Ok...I never said that Mubarack didn't need to get the hell out town. You claim that I did. It's either a fallacy, or a flat out lie. You choose.

    I'll cum in my pants when, 1) I'm convinced that the Egyptians aren't worse off and 2) when we're not seeing just another Islamofacist government installed in the ME.
    Last edited by apdst; 02-11-11 at 09:01 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    I don't see anything wrong in questioning what may and may not happen. All that has been done is you criticizing the wary and attempting to spin their argument against yours. No one that i have seen has argued for Mubarak to stay in power over democratic values.
    I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.

    Umberto Eco

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Who wins elections?

    The most organized group.
    Fallacy. Hamas was nowhere near as organized as Fatah in the Gaza Strip and they still won parliamentary elections. The one who wins elections is the one who gets the most votes. It's pretty common sense, MrVicchio.
    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    What group is most organized and able to get behind a single candidate?

    Muslim Brotherhood.
    The most organized party in Egypt is the NDP. Either way, the Muslim Brotherhood is still banned in Egypt.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    It's not a fact that it won't pose a threat to America.
    Just as it's not a fact that it will pose a threat. So the fearmongering you and a few others are doing is nothing short of laughable.

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    That's a matter of opinion and nothing more.
    What is? The supression of the Egyptian people for the last thirty years? Yes, suspending constitutional rights is completely opinionated.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by Degreez View Post
    Fallacy. Hamas was nowhere near as organized as Fatah in the Gaza Strip and they still won parliamentary elections. The one who wins elections is the one who gets the most votes. It's pretty common sense, MrVicchio.

    The most organized party in Egypt is the NDP. Either way, the Muslim Brotherhood is still banned in Egypt.
    The constitution was voided by the military, so the MB isn't banned, anymore.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    I was being very specific in my comments.
    And it was a faulty generalization. Specifics have nothing to do with an inherently flawed argument.

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