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Thread: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

  1. #181
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by Degreez View Post
    Except it's not a fact... It is not a fact that the new government will post a threat to America.
    It's not a fact that it won't pose a threat to America.

    The new government will be better than the previous one by a longshot. The potential threat to America is currently nonexistent. The surpression of the Egyptian people for the last thirty years is not.
    That's a matter of opinion and nothing more.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Damn, the fallacies keep on coming.
    Mubarak and Saddam were both ruthless dictators that pillaged their own countries. The only difference Mubarak was friendly to the US. Where's the fallacy in that?

    The hypocrisy of so called conservatives is getting to be unbearable.
    Last edited by USA_1; 02-11-11 at 08:51 PM.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by LimeLight View Post
    I don't believe that the future government of Egypt will be corrupt. But there still is a threat, like it or not. I hold my freedom dear, and I'm glad for their revolution.
    I am kind of surprised that apdst "Liked" this post. I suppose it was the "But there still is a threat, like it or not." part. Fair enough, I don't think anyone is saying there is not a risk. It doesn't seem like apdst is feeling the "I'm glad for their revolution" groove.

    As far as the bolded part of your post goes, are you freakin kidding me? You don't think the future government of Egypt will be CORRUPT? Name me one government in the world that is not corrupt. The whole point of a Republic is to have competing political groups and checks and balances between the Legislative, Executive and Judicial powers so that the corruption is kept manageable and you don't end up with a kleptocracy. Oops, too late.
    Last edited by reefedjib; 02-11-11 at 08:51 PM.

  4. #184
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Currently, there are numerous trajectories along which Egypt could evolve. They include but are not limited to:

    1. Evolution into a stable reasonably democratic state (ideal case).
    2. Progress toward a reasonably democratic system of governance that fizzles over time and ultimately yields to renewed illiberal rule.
    3. Military rule that evolves into a new round of illiberal rule.
    4. Theocratic state (touted by some pundits, but not very likely in the near-term given the depth of secularist nationalism and also the role of the military)

    Immediately, the transition will likely lead to a de-emphasis on foreign policy in Egypt. In other words, Egypt's foreign policy footprint will shrink temporarily as the country focuses on devising a framework for future elections and, more importantly, tries to lay a foundation for more democratic governance. Other regional state and non-state actors will likely vie to fill that temporary policy vacuum. There will likely be good continuity in Egypt's foreign relations. Things will remain relatively unchanged vis-a-vis the U.S. and also the Israel-Egypt peace treaty will remain intact.

    Most likely, there will be elections anywhere from 6-18 months down the road, depending on how quickly a framework for transparent elections can be devised, electoral campaigns can be organized, etc. If at least some of the opposition figures such as Mohamed ElBaradei win significant political influence in the elections, one can expect a strong amount of continuity in Egypt's foreign relations. Indeed, in an op-ed published in The New York Times, Dr. ElBaradei addressed the "chaos or worse" case some have been arguing would follow in a post-Mubarak era. He wrote:

    Many, particularly in the West, have bought the Mubarak regime’s fiction that a democratic Egypt will turn into chaos or a religious state, abrogate the fragile peace with Israel and become hostile to the West. But the people of Egypt — the grandmothers in veils who have dared to share Tahrir Square with army tanks, the jubilant young people who have risked their lives for their first taste of these new freedoms — are not so easily fooled.

    Aside from creating a framework that produces progress toward more democratic governance--a task that will not be completed once elections are held, as democracy depends on laws and institutions, with elections being an important but not sole requirement of democratic governance--there will be some big challenges that confront Egypt's future government. None will be larger than enacting the economic reforms that will produce meaningful opportunities for Egypt's still rapidly growing and youthful population (median age is 24). Failure of that government to produce satisfactory outcomes over a few years could lead to disenchantment with the post-Mubarak system. It would be that disenchantment, more than political Islamist movements, that would pose perhaps the biggest threat to what would still be a very young democratic experience. That situation could lead to the second outcome sketched at the beginning of this message.

    In the end, one should not automatically assume the worst. There is a big opportunity for a new course for Egypt. There are also risks. For now, the journey to a new political future is at its starting point.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by Degreez View Post
    Except it's not a fact... It is not a fact that the new government will post a threat to America.
    It's not a fact it won't pose a threat either. Hence the reason of doubt.
    I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.

    Umberto Eco

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by USA_1 View Post
    Mubarak and Saddam were both ruthless dictators that pillaged their own countries. The only difference Mubarak was friendly to the US. Where's the fallacy in that?
    That's not what you said. But, whatever, dude.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by reefedjib View Post
    I am kind of surprised that apdst "Liked" this post. I suppose it was the "But there still is a threat, like it or not." part. Fair enough, I don't think anyone is saying there is not a risk. It doesn't seem like apdst is feeling the "I'm glad for their revolution" groove.

    As far as the bolded part of your post goes, are you freakin kidding me? You don't think the future government of Egypt will be CORRUPT? Name me one government in the world that is not corrupt. The whole point of a Republic is to have competing political groups and checks and balances between the Legislative, Executive and Judicial powers so that the corruption is kept manageable and you don't end up with a kleptocracy. Oops, too late.
    How can I put this...

    I agree that Mubarack needs to be run out of town on a rail, but I'm not convinced that the Egyptians traded up.

    Ya' follow?
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

  8. #188
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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    That's not what you said. But, whatever, dude.
    This is what I said:
    Kind of like Iraq?
    It's funny how some people think it's great to spend a trillion dollars and thousands of lives to remove one corrupt dictator but it's horrible when it doesn't cost us a dime and any lives to remove another.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by LimeLight View Post
    It's not a fact it won't pose a threat either. Hence the reason of doubt.
    Hey jib, I liked this post, too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Neither does making false accusations.

    I don't recall any Conservative in this thread--or any other--saying that Mubarack should stay in power.
    All you had to say was you did not know what fallacy I engaged in. And the reason I posted the initial fallacy in the first place was to show you what a generalization looked liked. It's amazing how you can't spot it when you engage in one. Talk about blinders.

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