Redistricting, in particular, poses a serious threat to Blue Dogs, given that many hold marginal seats in states where Republicans unilaterally control the line-drawing.
In North Carolina, for instance, Democratic Reps. Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler are at risk. In Georgia, Rep. John Barrow is the most threatened Democrat in the state, and Rep. Sanford Bishop might not be far behind.
Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., could see more conservative neighborhoods outside Nashville added to his district.
Outside of the South, Reps. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Leonard Boswell of Iowa, Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania, and Jim Matheson of Utah are all at risk of running in districts that are less favorable to them.
Shuler, a member of the Blue Dog leadership, said on Morning Joe on Monday that “there has really been no communication whatsoever” between himself and Pelosi—a striking admission, given the seminal role that Blue Dogs have long played in caucus politics. But perhaps she’s just recognizing the new reality—that Blue Dogs might soon be an endangered species.