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Thread: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    My bad. And you're kidding yourself if you think Hezbollah isn't pulling all the strings there. Please.
    They are a major player, but they certainly aren't pulling all the strings. Stop with the black and white thinking. Lebanon is too diverse.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Laila View Post
    The Muslim brotherhood should have been included into talks decades ago, now it is too late. Hamas should have been incorporated years ago, now it is too late.
    Your saying then they should talk to the Muslim brotherhood.... the same brotherhood who killed Mubaraks predesessor (Sadat) who made peace with Israel.

    The same Brotherhood that murders coptic Christians on a regular basis.

    The same Brotherhood that killed German tourists.

    The same Brotherhood whose splinter groups (Hamas & Al Qaeda) have killed many Israelis & Americans.

    The same muslim brotherhood which backed the Nazis in WW2 & supplied troops to them to kill Serbs.

    The same brotherhood who says that once in power will resume war with Israel.

    The same Brotherhood whose stated goal is to overthrow Western democracies & impose Sharia law worldwide.

    This idea that this group is someone that could be a responsible partner in government with secular democratic elements is nothing but a Liberal pipe dream.

    My guess is if the brotherhood joins in a unity government with El Baradi this guy will be assasinated (mysteriously) within a year and the Brotherhood will take complete control.

    The point is that yes, many Muslims if they had a vote would choose to have a religious leaning Government but I do not think Egypt will be one of them.
    Really? Besides the military the most powerfull group in Egypt is the Brotherhood and if its not them running the show it would be a military dictatorship.

    If the brotherhood somehow gains control my guess is that as bad as Mubarak is someday his dictatorship will be known as " the good ole days" especially for Egypts minorities.

    So.... Hows that democracy in Lebanon working out?
    Last edited by Iron Yank; 02-01-11 at 10:27 PM.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    The point is, they would have gotten the weapons from somebody. Egypt has been buying weapons from Russia for decades. If we hadn't sold them weapons, they would have just bought them from the Ruskies.

    It's irrelevant to the larger picture.

    Mubarack repressed the people and now the Muslim Brotherhood is going to repress the people.

    I reckon when the MB turns out to be as bad as Mubarack, that'll be our fault, too. The stupidity has to end, at some point.
    I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

    I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-01-11 at 10:42 PM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

    I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.
    I think you're dreaming, but only time will tell.
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    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Here's a list of the countries that I think are primed for serious democratic revolution or democratic evolution in the near future, starting with the best candidates of all. This is based on the results of a statistical analysis I'm doing, and isn't just a list I developed on the fly.

    1. Tunisia
    2. North Korea
    3. Uzbekistan
    4. China
    5. Djibouti
    6. Cuba
    7. Egypt
    8. Laos
    9. Swaziland
    10. Singapore
    11. Burma
    12. Vietnam
    13. Tajikistan
    14. Guinea-Bissau
    15. Jordan
    What these countries all have in common is that they have very little oil, and have far more authoritarian governments than the average country at their level of economic development. I think that nearly all of them will make substantial democratic progress in the next decade. It's no coincidence that the three Arab states on this list are the epicenters of the protests.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-01-11 at 10:54 PM.
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    Re: "Beginning of the end" for Egypt's Mubarak, as son and wife flee

    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Harry View Post
    They hate us for a reason. They don't hate Canada, Japan, and Brazil for their way of life.

    Supporting ruthless dictators is not only imoral it is against everything this country stands for. Eventually people rise up against them. It's funny how some fight against tyranny in this country but support it in others.
    Actually there has been terrorists attempts in Canada as well as several other democracies. There have been successful Islamic terrorist attacks all over Asia and Africa as well as in Europe. Muslims are now building temples in Central and South America.

    Islamism is not exclusive to the United States and anyone who thinks its America's fault just hasn't been paying attention.

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    Re: "Beginning of the end" for Egypt's Mubarak, as son and wife flee

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Actually there has been terrorists attempts in Canada as well as several other democracies. There have been successful Islamic terrorist attacks all over Asia and Africa as well as in Europe. Muslims are now building temples in Central and South America.

    Islamism is not exclusive to the United States and anyone who thinks its America's fault just hasn't been paying attention.
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    Last edited by apdst; 02-02-11 at 12:46 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by digsbe View Post
    We must remember that Egypt isn't like every other Middle Eastern nation. They are almost half Christian and they seem to take a general stance against terrorism.
    Sure they took a stance against terrorism which is why they received US aid. But this "they" you refer to was Mubarak.

    Once he is gone this "they" no longer applies.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I think that's unlikely. I'm actually in the process of conducting a statistical analysis on the relationship between democracy and economic development for countries that don't have oil-based economies. Egypt has far less freedom than one would expect given its level of economic development, so I expect that deposing Mubarak from power will be a very positive step in the right direction.

    I've heard lots of comparisons to the Islamic Revolution in Iran...but this overlooks the fact that Iran is sitting on top of a huge amount of oil, whereas Egypt has very little. Oil is a major factor in how authoritarian a country is. Egypt may not have an easy path to democracy, but I think they'll do far better than Iran did for the simple fact that they aren't cursed with oil wealth.
    You might want to include Canada (and Norway) in your stats. We have a lot of oil and are not authoritarian. And while you are removing oil from the equation, you probably should add Islamic.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    You might want to include Canada (and Norway) in your stats. We have a lot of oil and are not authoritarian. And while you are removing oil from the equation, you probably should add Islamic.
    I'm mostly looking at relatively poor countries. You're right, Norway is the exception to the rule...but Norway was already an established democracy long before they exported oil. Canada doesn't really export enough oil for me to consider it an "oil-based economy." I only excluded countries where oil exports were responsible for at least 5% of GDP.

    I have also analyzed whether Islamic countries are more authoritarian than one would expect given their level of development, after taking into account that they're more likely to have oil. Of the five Arab states that have a GDP per capita under $10,000 and don't have oil, four of them (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan) are indeed significantly more autocratic than statistics would indicate they should be...which IMO is the impetus for all the protests in the latter three countries. The other Arab state (Palestine) is actually MORE democratic than expected. My conclusion is that the international community has a large impact on Arab democracy. If we want to promote it, as we have done in Palestine, we can. If we want to suppress it, as we have done in the other countries, we can. But I don't see any indication that Arab culture is fundamentally hostile to democracy.

    Looking at non-Arab Muslim states, they're all over the place in terms of their level of democracy. I don't really see any pattern that would lead me to the conclusion that Islamic states are more or less receptive to democracy than anyone else. Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Mali are all more democratic than we should expect based on their level of economic development. Afghanistan and the other central Asian "stans" have a strong tendency toward dictatorship, above and beyond what we should expect. Pakistan and most of Western Africa are about as democratic as the statistics would indicate they should be.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-02-11 at 02:37 AM.
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