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Thread: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Over rumor by anonymous sources? Not at all.
    sources, huh?

    the london times doesn't do rumors, she REPORTS

    anyway---

    more power to you

    the pros, however, are

    embarrassed, that is

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...nd-more-fears/

    White House, State Department move to end Egypt confusion - Josh Gerstein - POLITICO.com

    US alienates all sides - Ben Smith - POLITICO.com

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFZzc5OY0pg
    Last edited by The Prof; 02-09-11 at 11:48 PM.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Over rumor by anonymous sources? Not at all.
    Such a posture would not be incompatible with Saudi Arabia's interests. Saudi Arabia's monarchy wants to minimize the risk of such demonstrations in Saudi Arabia. If President Mubarak were swept from power prior to the end of his term and if the U.S. were seen as backing such a move, elements opposed to Saudi Arabia's monarchy might be emboldened, or at least that could be the fear of the Saudi royal family. It is unclear whether the Saudi royal family would have the appetite to brutally crush such a popular movement as happened in Iran. While such a movement could be crushed, as occurred in Iran where it has been renedered ineffectual perhaps for years to come, not every leader has the appetite or inclination to carry out the necessary oppression.

    Finally, Saudi Arabia prefers stability and continuity. It already has grave concerns about external developments (Iran's rising power and Iran's role in facilitating the influence of proxies such as Hezbollah). It does not want to see Egypt-style popular movements that could create domestic challenges to the monarchy and its aging rulers.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 02-10-11 at 12:24 AM.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Such a posture would not be incompatible with Saudi Arabia's interests. Saudi Arabia's monarchy wants to minimize the risk of such demonstrations in Saudi Arabia. If President Mubarak were swept from power prior to the end of his term and if the U.S. were seen as backing such a move, elements opposed to Saudi Arabia's monarchy might be emboldened, or at least that could be the fear of the Saudi royal family. It is unclear whether the Saudi royal family would have the appetite to brutally crush such a popular movement as happened in Iran. While such a movement could be crushed, as occurred in Iran where it has been renedered ineffectual perhaps for years to come, not every leader has the appetite or inclination to carry out the necessary oppression.

    Finally, Saudi Arabia prefers stability and continuity. It already has grave concerns about external developments (Iran's rising power and Iran's role in facilitating the influence of proxies such as Hezbollah). It does not want to see Egypt-style popular movements that could create domestic challenges to the monarchy and its aging rulers.
    Yes, I think it is possible that such a call was placed, but we have no official confirmation that it did take place. Even, if a call from the Saudis was made, it doesn't necessarily follow that it affected the decisions of the administration. It just seems there is not enough here to go on for folks to get all worried.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    I am more concerned with damage done by American Imperialism than I am the Muslim brotherhood.

    American imperialism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Bush Doctrine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Please quit this tired diversion technique. The subject was the Muslim Brotherhood, not "American Imperialism".

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Please quit this tired diversion technique. The subject was the Muslim Brotherhood, not "American Imperialism".
    I thought we were talking about what scared us.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Yes, I think it is possible that such a call was placed, but we have no official confirmation that it did take place. Even, if a call from the Saudis was made, it doesn't necessarily follow that it affected the decisions of the administration. It just seems there is not enough here to go on for folks to get all worried.
    Today, the story is widespread. I have confidence that the Saudi position is as described, given Saudi Arabia's interests. After all, if one recalls, during the low-grade civil war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia made abundantly clear that it would not accept a situation where Iraq's Sunnis were marginalized and that it was prepared to assist them. IMO, such a posture was actually helpful. It probably contributed to a broader U.S. perspective and might have reduced the likelihood of Iranian domination, though that risk still exists depending how things evolve in coming years.

    IMO, it appears that the U.S. has not defined a coherent position on Egypt. Instead, the U.S. seems to be vacillating between patience and impatience. Unfortunately, such a lack of consistency has raised questions in Egypt's current government and those of some other Middle Eastern states as to U.S. reliability and it has led to at least some of the protesters suggesting that democracy would be achieved in spite of the U.S. A consistent approach in favor of a smooth transition to more democratic rule would probably be preferable. A low profile would probably also minimize risks to U.S. interests.

    Although U.S. policy makers seem to believe otherwise, Egypt currently lacks the institutions, laws, and traditions to make an immediate leap to democracy. Even if free and fair elections were held today, Egypt would not be a democracy. A transition that is increasingly inclusive with respect to Egypt's political diversity would perhaps have the best chance at leading to a more democratic state, but institutions, laws, and a democratic tradition will need to be built. That will take time. The current Egyptian government can start the process. After September, a future Egyptian government or series of governments will need to complete that process over a number of years.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Here's a good rason for alot of Egyptians to worry.

    Muslim Brotherhood: 'We are not seeking power' - CNN
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Here's a good rason for alot of Egyptians to worry.

    Muslim Brotherhood: 'We are not seeking power' - CNN
    From your link...

    "We want to participate, not to dominate. We will not have a presidential candidate, we want to participate and help, we are not seeking power."

    Why should Egyptians worry? They'll have members in Parlaiment I believe yes, and while I don't wanna take them at their word, they're not nearly as much of a threat as you want to believe they are.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    From your link...

    "We want to participate, not to dominate. We will not have a presidential candidate, we want to participate and help, we are not seeking power."

    Why should Egyptians worry? They'll have members in Parlaiment I believe yes, and while I don't wanna take them at their word, they're not nearly as much of a threat as you want to believe they are.
    Those sentiments reflect the Muslim Brotherhood's understanding that the environment in Egypt is not compatible with Islamist rule. The secular base in Egypt is too broad to be toppled immediately. Hence, if the Muslim Brotherhood wants a voice, it will have to find that voice within the context of a broader political framework. Domination, which would otherwise be its preferred course, is not an option at present. Egypt is not the Iran of 1979 where the base of secularism was visible but very superficial. That base is much more entrenched and enduring in Egypt.

    Taking all that into consideration, the start of a post-Mubarak era (whether it begins after September or some time earlier matters little), will more than likely see pragmatism when it comes to key domestic and foreign policy issues in Egypt. Hence, I do not believe that the first post-Mubarak government would rescind the Egypt-Israel peace agreement, even as some pundits have all but written the demise of the agreement. The major challenges facing such a government would be to lay a path that leads to a more democratic political framework and also one that leads to more robust economic growth necessary to produce meaningful opportunities for Egypt's growing population, especially its younger people. Nonetheless, I suspect that U.S. policy vaccilation on recent Egyptian affairs will lead to a need to reinvigorate the U.S.-Egypt relationship afterward, as perceptions of U.S. reliability among all parties has been undermined to some extent by fluctuating policy statements.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Breaking: Supreme Council of Armed forces commit to uphold people's rights and needs.
    Also Mubarak is not there in the room despite being Commander in Chief o.O

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