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Thread: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime


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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I agree, the hotbeds of terrorism in the Arab world (e.g. Gaza and Yemen) are very poor. Most other Arab countries are not. That's why I'm not too worried about jihadists overrunning the Egyptian government anytime soon. Egypt might have high unemployment, but it's far more economically developed than failed states like Gaza and Yemen.
    I don't think anyone is suggesting "jihadists".
    So you are throwing up another Strawman here.

    However, the Muslim Brotherhood/Islamists will almost certainly be an even larger party (already the largest despite suppression) and depending on the new structure of the Egyptian govt, it's PM will probably be a Brotherhood-er.

    Quote Originally Posted by Me::: NY Times::: Abdel Halim Qandil, the general coordinator of Kifaya, a secular opposition movement.
    "...Mr. Qandil nonetheless estimated that in a free election, the Brotherhood would win about a Third of seats in parliament, support that he suggested might ebb as competing parties gain attention.
    and see above by The Prof
    Last edited by mbig; 02-04-11 at 10:05 PM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    I don't think anyone is suggesting "jihadists".
    So you are Throwing up another Strawman here.
    "Straw man" implies that I was arguing against someone or something. I was simply providing my view on what conditions cause terrorism. Namely, crushing poverty and a weak state. Conditions which are present in Gaza and Yemen, but not so much in Egypt.

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig
    However, the Muslim Brotherhood/Islamists will almost certainly be an even larger party (already the largest) party (they are already despite suppression) and depending on the new structure of the Egyptian govt, it's PM will be a Brotherhood-er.

    "...Mr. Qandil nonetheless estimated that in a free election, the Brotherhood would win about a Third of seats in parliament, support that he suggested might ebb as competing parties gain attention.
    OK, so even if it didn't decline at all and they won a third of the seats, it's still only a third. That means they'd need to form a coalition with other groups that might not share all their views. And doing something disastrous for the country like launching a war with Israel could cause coalition partners to abandon them.

    Sometimes democracy means that the voters elect people you don't like. Egypt has a right to self-determination...especially because there is no plausible alternative at this point. Even if you're inclined to support a dictator like Mubarak in the name of "stability," his government isn't looking very stable right now and there's absolutely no way he's going to survive this politically. So I'm not quite sure what course of action you are suggesting...
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    "Straw man" implies that I was arguing against someone or something. I was simply providing my view on what conditions cause terrorism. Namely, crushing poverty and a weak state. Conditions which are present in Gaza and Yemen, but not so much in Egypt.
    Incorrect.
    Strawman suggests you are are arguing against yourself, not any real opponent, by throwing up an extreme ("Jihadists") that can easily be shot down, usually in the same post. Yours a classic example.


    OK, so even if it didn't decline at all and they won a third of the seats, it's still only a third. That means they'd need to form a coalition with other groups that might not share all their views. And doing something disastrous for the country like launching a war with Israel could cause coalition partners to abandon them.

    Sometimes democracy means that the voters elect people you don't like. Egypt has a right to self-determination...especially because there is no plausible alternative at this point. Even if you're inclined to support a dictator like Mubarak in the name of "stability," his government isn't looking very stable right now and there's absolutely no way he's going to survive this politically. So I'm not quite sure what course of action you are suggesting...
    Right now they control 1/6th (app 17%) despite heavy suppression by Mubarak.
    They are already the largest faction.

    I suggested, and later found the above confirming this might double without Mubarak sitting on them.
    All the other parties were smaller even before this potential doubling.
    33% is very Large against a backdrop of 10%ers.

    So despite it sounding small by most Western Govt's fewer-faction standards.. 1/3 is far and away the largest and has the largest voice.
    Coalition, of course.
    Last edited by mbig; 02-04-11 at 10:18 PM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime


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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    Right now they control 1/6th (app 17%) despite heavy suppression by Mubarak.
    They are already the largest faction.

    I suggested, and later found the above confirming this might double without Mubarak sitting on them.
    All the other parties were smaller even before this potential doubling.
    33% is very Large against a backdrop of 10%ers.

    So despite it sounding small by most Western Govt's fewer-faction standards.. 1/3 is far and away the largest and has the largest voice.
    Coalition, of course.
    Mm-hmm. And I suggest we let democracy take its course and do our best to keep a good diplomatic relationship with Egypt, regardless of who wins. What are YOU suggesting we do?
    Last edited by Kandahar; 02-04-11 at 10:23 PM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    FOX is reporting that there was an assassination attempt against VP Omar Suleiman which killed two of his bodyguards.

    RealClearPolitics - Video - Failed Assassination Attempt On Egyptian VP Kills Two Bodyguards
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    I think most Egyptians would be quite happy with an election Heavily monitored by an International team

    No one is going to trust any faction without it.
    There's simply no foundation/infrastructure for an honest election now or a few months from now.


    I can't foresee any agreed upon result without perhaps the most extensively monitored election in history.
    Amid protests, views of post-Mubarak Egypt emerge - Yahoo! Finance

    "....President Barack Obama said that discussions have begun in Egypt on a turnover of the government and he called for "a transition period that begins now."

    "We want to see this moment of turmoil turned into a moment of opportunity," Obama said in Washington. He did not explicitly call for Mubarak to step down immediately, but U.S. officials said the administration has made a judgment that Mubarak has to go soon if the crisis is to end peacefully.

    Under one U.S. proposal, the 82-year-old Mubarak would step down and hand power to a military-backed temporary government headed by his newly appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. The government would prepare for free and fair elections later this year.

    That would mesh in some ways with the demands of the protesters. But one significant difference was the timetable.

    Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, one of the leaders of the protesters, criticized the government's plan to reform the constitution within 5 months and hold presidential elections in September, saying that was too rushed.

    It would take a full Year under a transitional government to sufficiently loosen the ruling party's entrenched monopoly on politics before a truly democratic election can be held, ElBaradei said. The ruling party has squeezed out almost all rivals with a grip solidified in vote fraud, election rules tilted in its favor, widespread patronage, emergency laws and domination of the media...."
    Last edited by mbig; 02-05-11 at 12:42 AM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Ohhh big tough guy Obama trying to tell the leader of another country to step down. Does anyone honestly think that this Mubarek Ex- Military man, thug, dictator is going to jump for this panty waist of a president, he is probably going to dig his heels in even deeper for everytime Obama makes another demand he resign, if you were just thrown under the bus by your ally wouldnt you?. Mubarek will stay until he is ready to go on his own terms probably in September when he says he will. That seems to be a fair amount of time for parties to organize for an election if that is indeed what he has in mind.

    In any event is anyone afraid of Obama? The Iranians are laughing at him, the Saudis are shaking there heads along with the Red Chinese to whom he constantly bows down to.
    Last edited by Iron Yank; 02-05-11 at 12:54 AM.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Egypt as protesters demand end to Mubarak regime

    Since Obama now supports the aspirations of the people of Egypt, can anyone tell me why Obama didn't support the aspirations of the people of Iran in their attempted Green Revolution that was put down by force? There is an apparent inconsistency in Obama's actions. Can the inconsistency be reconciled?

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