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Thread: AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

  1. #11
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    Re: AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    I think he'll be fine, demographic-wise. The far larger issues will be how well the economy is doing at the time and who he's running against.
    I think you're right. No matter how they redistrict, it will likely come down to those two factors. I think this will have more of an effect on elections in the future, when the country becomes stable again.

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    Re: AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

    due to increased population the 2010 census awards new congressional districts and, therefore, new electoral votes to---AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA

    dark red TX and FL gain +4 and +2, respectively

    dark blue NY loses 2, which is a 2 vote gain for my side

    also, IL, MA, NJ, PN, IA and MI all lose a rep, all states which went for barry

    Study: Red states may gain electoral votes, House seats – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

    when you shake it all out, it adds up to about a 16 vote pickup in the 2012 presidential for the reprobates, or about the magnitude of a michigan

    now, as to why so many americans are leaving places like new york for more vital environs like texas...

    The Top 10 Places in America Poised for Recovery - Newsweek

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    Re: AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

    If you have luck you don't have to have good policies.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 12-20-10 at 12:27 AM.
    If you notice something good in yourself, give credit to God, not to yourself, but be certain the evil you commit is always your own and yours to acknowledge.

    St. Benedict

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    New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid - FoxNews.com

    The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the U.S. must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.

    The biggest gainer will be Texas, a Republican-dominated state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers -- New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats -- were carried by Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.

    Democrats' problems don't end there.

    November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking.
    The recession has led many conservatives, who have been complaining about the poltical forces in states like New York, California, Illinois, Ohio, etc, to finally do what they've been talking about for years...and leaving for a more like-minded existence elsewhere.

    The census shows this is happening.

    Many red states - Texas is a prime example - have barely felt the recession, other than those employed by companies that are predominantly based in the northeast. And as people leave heavily-unionized blue states in droves to relocate in the red flyover states, there is a political shift taking place.

    California is virtually bankrupt. So is New York. The huge national and global influence of both states is eroding as fewer and fewer businesses choose to base their operations there, and hence, pay their taxes there. The politics of those states is turning more TMZ by the day.

    As Republicans that actually reside in these deep blue states leave, what's left is a vaccuum of business leadership, which will "trickle down" to the folks. Look at Detroit as an example.

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    Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    yes, and politically it's a big bonanza for the reprobates, 4 new house seats in texas, two in florida, one each in arizona, georgia, south carolina and utah, all reliably red

    OUR state legislators control ALL those states, WE draw the district lines which will abide a decade, WE have the power locally to determine those districts such that reds are rewarded AND blues abashed

    GERRYMANDERING is gigantically gratifying, the GRIST of american electioneering

    on the flip side, dark blue new york LOSES two seats, ie, TWO votes that went for obama in the 2010 college won't anymore

    also deprived of a delegate are illinois, iowa, massachusetts, michigan, jersey and the keystone state, all blue

    when you shake it all out, it's a 16 or so point pickup for the neanderthals, the magnitude of a michigan

    and in the house---

    our advantages are not limited to this structural aggrandizement of 16 or so new reps

    we can expect, in addition, a number of names to announce no renomination, creating plum OPENS for us to pick off

    on tsunami tuesday, my side stole DAVID OBEY's open, JIM OBERSTAR's

    brian baird's, brad ellsworth's, bart stupak's, joe sestak's, bart gordon's, john tanner's, marion berry's, vic snyder's, eric massa's, dennis moore's, alan mollohan's...

    opens provide optimal opportunities

    who's it gonna be in 12?

    in the senate WE enjoy even greater leverage---some FOURTEEN or so dem incumbents in upper parliament face serious challenge, versus only ONE republican, scott brown, #41, from chappaquiddick

    tester in blood red montana, conrad in sanguine dakota, ben nelson in knuckle dragging nebraska, bill nelson in florida (where my side took the senate by 20, the gub by 5, 4 house seats and filibuster-proof control of both houses in tallahassee), combat boots webb in virginia (who might not even run, republicans picked up 3 house seats, mcdonnell won by 18 last year, the delegation is 10/13 red, gerald connolly in fairfax, dc burbs, held his seat so narrowly a recount was required...), bob casey in keystone country (we took FIVE house seats, the gub, the senate, both state houses...), debbie stabenow in michigan (gub snyder won by 18, both state houses, two congressmen making the delegation 9/15 red), herb kohl in wisconsin (both state houses repainted red on nov 2, feingold finished, the gub by double digits, two house seats making 5 of 8 republican), sherrod brown in ohio (FIVE house seats, 13/18 red, governor kasich, senator portman, both legislatures...), claire mccaskill in missouri (blunt blew away rubberstamp robin, 20 term chair of armed services ike skelton was skedaddled by tea drinking vicky hartzler), jeff bingaman in new mexico (says he might not run, ms martinez took ablequerque by more than 10), joe manchin in west virginia (which is changing like arkansas, manchin won only after putting a bullet thru cap and trade, the popular former governor was NOT PRESENT during saturday's historic votes on dadt and dream...), amy klobuchar in minnesota, 80 year old difi out here on the left coast, menendez in jersey (where christie is tearing up trenton)...

    we may also see some party switching---ben nelson and dadt hero joe lieberman are the names most prominently mentioned

    in the kansan's case, stiffneck nelson will either become a republican or announce he's not running

    15 state reps from georgia to maine have already announced their reorientation to red, including 2 african americans in atlanta

    upshot---republicans enjoy tremendous structural and strategic electoral advantages looking forward---16 new electoral votes, the power to redistrict in almost every battleground, a fabulously fortuitous floorplan in the senate, and, perhaps most significant, the difficulty the party STILL in power is gonna have RECRUITING quality candidates with known drags nancy and harry at the head

    PLUS the governorships in pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, new jersey, virginia, new mexico, nevada, indiana, iowa, florida...

    i presume you appreciatre the powerful part gubs play in presidentials

    party on, progressives, seeya at the polls

    seeya in the congressional cloakroom, in the courts, in the capitols...
    Last edited by The Prof; 12-20-10 at 03:15 PM.

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    Re: AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    It seems that many people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, which doesn't look good for the democrats... Gee, I wonder why this is happening? You think it has anything to do with the effects that democratic policies have on an economy, versus the effects that republican policies have?

    Naaaaaa... That couldn't be it.



    New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid - Yahoo! News

    Correlation =/= Causation

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    Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    Census shows slowing US growth, brings GOP gains - Yahoo! Finance

    it's final, the census bureau has awarded texas 4 new house seats (and, therefore, 4 extra electorals for president), florida 2, and one each to AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA

    ohio and new york each lose two, while getting dinged a single district each are IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MO, NJ and PA

    if you adjust the 2008 electoral map using the above amended arithmetic, it amounts to a net pickup for the plebians of exactly SIXTEEN districts/ev's

    michigan, as an example, owns today 16 ev's (down from 17 last time)

    at the house level:

    in the 18 states reapportioned by the census, republicans control BOTH houses AND gub in nine---TX, FL, AZ, GA, SC, UT, PA, OH, MI

    we're talking about GERRYMANDERING, here, and who controls it

    6 of the 18 states are mixed govt---NV, NY, IA, LA, MO, NJ

    only 3 are all blue---WA, IL and MA

    it is what it is

    no spin, lynn

    seeya at the polls, progs, in the congress, in the courts, in the capitols...

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    Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

    States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino

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    Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

    States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino
    The Democrats have something to offer Latino Americans (and those Mexican citizens who are motor voters) that the Republicans don't. A full trough at which to feed at public expense.

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    Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

    States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino
    A... the libbies are gonna drum you out of the club for using a FOX source

    B... From your article...
    States where Hispanics have settled in large numbers saw some of the highest percent changes in population growth and gained congressional seats, according to the first set of Census 2010 results, released Tuesday.
    and
    This first release of Census results did not include data on race or ethnicity -- reports with those details will be released early next year.
    based on the second statement, the first is an assumption. So, your comment that 'a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth' is an assumption... until the reports w/race or ethnicity data come out.

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