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Thread: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Albert Di Salvo View Post
    The Sunshine Policy was a complete failure. The future of the Korean Peninsula will be determined in Beijing. The Sunshine Policy is irrelevant to the Chinese. There will be no reunification without accepting Chinese domination, and vassal state status. If the South Koreans are unwilling to accept Chinese suzerainty, they will be alone in the world. America needs to stay out of this.
    Furthermore the US must continue to support South Korea or lose any credibility in Asia. Discontinuing support of Taiwan would produce the same result.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Although I agree with this, I do not believe North Korea is anywhere close to collapse. Indeed, some of the pundits who have been regularly forecasting imminent regime collapse almost certainly have been going on little more than speculation given how insular North Korea is. That the country has survived major shocks including a mid-1990s famine that killed more than a million people indicates that it has some capabilities to deal with such issues, so while a collapse is possible down the road, I don't believe it is so imminent that increased pressure to deal with North Korea's nuclear program cannot be applied.
    Except that economic weakness is occurring at the same time as greater political weakness. Kim Jong-Il's health is not good and his apparent successor is young and not very influential.
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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    Except that economic weakness is occurring at the same time as greater political weakness. Kim Jong-Il's health is not good and his apparent successor is young and not very influential.
    Those are fair points.

    Unfortunately, almost exactly the same kind of arguments were made during the transition to Kim Jong-il's rule. The reality is that it is uncertain as to how much control/influence Kim's successor actually has. If the prior transition is representative, and that's a risky assumption, he could have greater control/influence than those outside North Korea suspect. Of course, there may well be certain senior military leaders who have significant influence. All of that is likely playing out in shaping North Korea's recent conduct. Nevertheless, given Kim's "immortal contribution" of Songun (military-centered society), North Korea's new uranium enrichment activities might well have much more to do with locking Kim's strategic contribution in place than the transition that is underway.

    Economic weakness has been a chronic issue in North Korea.

    In sum, I don't believe North Korea is near a breaking point whereby even a modest tightening of sanctions would trigger the collapse of its regime.

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    I think the only way to end poverty in North Korea is to overthrow the current government. They are the ones keeping people in this situation. North Korea is the most oppressive state in the world where the people have virtually no rights and live under communist tyranny. I feel sorry for the North Koreans. We can send aid, but it doesn't help. The problem is with the nation's leadership and style of government. To help North Koreans we must address the real problem, the North Korean government and its policies.
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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Those are fair points.

    Unfortunately, almost exactly the same kind of arguments were made during the transition to Kim Jong-il's rule. The reality is that it is uncertain as to how much control/influence Kim's successor actually has. If the prior transition is representative, and that's a risky assumption, he could have greater control/influence than those outside North Korea suspect. Of course, there may well be certain senior military leaders who have significant influence. All of that is likely playing out in shaping North Korea's recent conduct. Nevertheless, given Kim's "immortal contribution" of Songun (military-centered society), North Korea's new uranium enrichment activities might well have much more to do with locking Kim's strategic contribution in place than the transition that is underway.

    Economic weakness has been a chronic issue in North Korea.

    In sum, I don't believe North Korea is near a breaking point whereby even a modest tightening of sanctions would trigger the collapse of its regime.
    Thing is that Kim Jong-Il was really chosen much earlier on, was the eldest son, had achieved far more during that time, and was much older when he took power. It seems likely that the succession will be much sooner for Kim Jong-Un meaning none of those things will play into the equation.
    "For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Furthermore the US must continue to support South Korea or lose any credibility in Asia. Discontinuing support of Taiwan would produce the same result.
    American infrastructure is crumbling and it's children are ignorant. America is past the point of needing credibility with Asians.

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by digsbe View Post
    I think the only way to end poverty in North Korea is to overthrow the current government.
    Although there might be a small possibility that the North Korean regime would be overthrown, probably the only one capable of doing so would be North Korea's military. However, there seems to be little indication that the military, particularly senior military leaders who are accustomed to benefits beyond those available to the average North Korean, are any less illiberal than the current regime. North Korea's people don't have much chance to overthrow the regime. Moderation by a future leader might hold the best prospect for constructive changes.

    External regime change is not very likely. North Korea's conventional arsenal and modest nuclear arsenal would make the costs of overthrowing the regime via military means prohibitive. Bad as the situation is in North Korea, I don't believe the sacrifice of Seoul and other South Korean population centers within reach of North Korea's military nor the resulting military costs (manpower, weapons, financial) would justify even a successful military outcome.

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon of Light View Post
    Thing is that Kim Jong-Il was really chosen much earlier on, was the eldest son, had achieved far more during that time, and was much older when he took power. It seems likely that the succession will be much sooner for Kim Jong-Un meaning none of those things will play into the equation.
    There will likely be a handful of senior officials who will "help" guide Kim Jong-un were he to gain power in the near-term. A transition that would be completed in the medium-term (3-5 years) is certainly feasible unless Kim Jong-un were somehow incapable of leading. I haven't seen much information that would suggest that he is incapable of leading. Given North Korea's closed society, that is a risk, but I wouldn't assume that it is the most likely or even a likely outcome. Of course, if his capabilities were short of what is required to accumulate and retain power, timing would be irrelevant. Any change in power to Kim Jong-un would be problematic.

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    A new development. From The Korea Herald:

    Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said Monday that South Korea would consider the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in consultation with Washington as one of the options to deal with North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

    His comment followed a report that the North showed a new uranium enrichment plant purportedly with some 2,000 centrifuges installed and running to Siegfried Hecker, a U.S. scientist who visited the communist state earlier this month.


    This upcoming policy discussion between South Korea and the United States, even if it never reaches the stage where tactical nuclear weapons are redeployed to South Korea, is potentially welcome. It could provide a signal to North Korea's regime that South Korea is not so intimidated by the North's actions that it is paralyzed to take measures aimed at safeguarding its interests. It could also signal to the North Korean regime that neither that regime's aggressive acts nor worries about the possible fragility of North Korea's succession process will inhibit South Korea from carrying out policies consistent with that state's interests.

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    Re: Sunshine Policy failed to change North Korea: report

    Quote Originally Posted by Albert Di Salvo View Post
    American infrastructure is crumbling and it's children are ignorant. America is past the point of needing credibility with Asians.
    No doubt you are not American. What you say is partially true, but hardly the rule. And no one else infrastructure has problems...yeah right.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

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