True, but I am waiting for anyone to tell me what Obama has done that is going to make things better that will create the conditions for a re-election.
Two years is ample time to add to or build a successful policy framework and develop a reasonably convincing political rationale. I don't believe one can pre-ordain the outcome of the next election. A strong reminder in that direction are the predictions of permanent re-alignment that have risen time and again in the euphoria of a major electoral triumph. More often than not, those predictions have failed. Temporary shifts in the votes of independent swing voters have mainly accounted for the outcome and those voters are not mainly aligned with one major party or the other.
Name for me one economic prediction Obama has made that has been accurate?
There's little doubt that he underestimated the severity of the recession. Indeed, if one goes back to some of the discussions in October 2008 at DP, one finds news articles where predictions were for an unemployment rate that would top out in the 7%-7.5% range.
There is no way that you can add 3 trillion dollar to the debt, generate an addition 4 million unemployed and point to that as a success.
The long-term fiscal challenges are an important challenge. Whether or not a credible path toward fiscal consolidation will be developed and put in place remains to be seen. Two bodies will be providing recommendations to contribute toward that outcome before the year is out. As a wild card, President Obama could well gamble and call on Congress to adopt the recommendations (almost certain to include some level of tax hikes; entitlement reforms are also possible, though not assured). If Congress retreats, he could well argue that Congress needs to offer an alternative that produces at least as much saving. The Ryan proposal might provide such an alternative, but would the House actually transform it into legislation and adopt it?
Even the battle over the expiring tax cuts could create challenges and opportunities. If Republicans move to extend all of the tax cuts (a campaign commitment and one they need to keep to maintain credibility on that issue), will Republicans offer sufficient spending reductions/other revenue measures to offset the deficit impact (necessary to build credibility on the fiscal discipline commitment)?
Obama is a leftwing ideologue that lacks the basic leadership skills and political common sense to react to Tuesday's elections, i.e. the 200 million dollar a day trip to India.
To date, the demonstration of his leadership skills has fallen far short of what had been expected in the wake of his 2008 electoral triumph. One could have made a similar argument about President Clinton immediately following the 1994 election. Things can change. How he responds to the adversity of a substantial electoral setback will shed light on his actual leadership capacities.
On the trip to India, I believe both the reported cost and number of persons involved is excessive in the context of such trips. It also offers the symbolism of a disconnect between the nation's fiscal situation and fiscal practices. If the trip cannot be achieved at much lower cost and with far fewer persons, then it should not be undertaken. Instead, the President should invite India's Prime Minister to the White House. But now that the White House has committed to the trip, that option doesn't exist. It needs to quickly find a way to address the excesses associated with the trip (costs and persons).
