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2010 Midterm Results Discussion

I think Manchin is going to be VERY interesting to watch in the next 2 years. Short term due to the filling of a senators seat and ran a relatively conservative campaign for a democrat taking some extreme measures to distance himself from Obama. I'm really curious to see how he acts and votes in congress over the next two years and to see if he's essentially a Democratic Olympia Snow type for at least the next 2 years.
 
Deuce said:
The "GOP takes house" determination is mostly based on how polls have been going lately, as well as how exit polls and currently tallied votes are going. Very little to do with which order that the polls close in.
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Right. Apparently his point though, if I understand him (to be honest I am not really paying that much attention because the kid likes to hear himself talk), but he was saying that the numbers will close from what they are now.
 
I'm taking a break and getting some food fellas... Be back later on.
 
soccerboy22 said:
Right. Apparently his point though, if I understand him (to be honest I am not really paying that much attention because the kid likes to hear himself talk), but he was saying that the numbers will close from what they are now.
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This seems to be the correct answer.
 
From the CNN liveblog:

9:19 p.m. ET: Latest exit polls: The good news for Democrats so far: Things aren’t quite as awful as they could be, according to early exit polls. The bad news: That’s still pretty bad.
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Wow, GOP taking seats, who woulda guessed? I wish I could say I'm surprised that people are so shortsighted that they would shift back over to the republicans in the span of two years, but obviously it was completely expected.
 
Added Vitter in LA.
 
Deuce said:
Pre-emptive crying foul.
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hardly preemptive; this has been national news for days now. nice when SEIU employees are your technicians tasked to 'fix' the problem. the DOJ has even tasked fraud investigators to come in and bless the results.
 
DANGIT NEVADA REPORT IN ALREADY.


F5F5F5F5F5

I need an information fix, and there isn't any information on the Bachmann race in MN-6. (I place a hex on you, lady!)
 
Zyphlin said:
I think Manchin is going to be VERY interesting to watch in the next 2 years. Short term due to the filling of a senators seat and ran a relatively conservative campaign for a democrat taking some extreme measures to distance himself from Obama. I'm really curious to see how he acts and votes in congress over the next two years and to see if he's essentially a Democratic Olympia Snow type for at least the next 2 years.
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I think he will be. Since he's up for reelection in 2012 and Obama was never popular in West Virginia even when he was popular nationwide, I would imagine that Manchin will break from the Democrats as much as he can get away with. As Nate Silver said, West Virginia was a "must win" for the Democrats, but it may also be a "no win." Manchin could definitely prove to be a thorn in the Democrats' side, at least until 2012.
 
The girl I like is going to be pissed if Tim Foley ends up winning governor for Conn. It looks like he is going to right now.
 
Can we take the conspiracy theory stuff elsewhere please and keep this to the election results.
 
Deuce said:
(I place a hex on you, lady!)
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/offtopic

A sports announcer in Cleveland hired a witch doctor to place three hexes and two curses on Leborn James before the season started.

/ontopic
 
Redress said:
From the CNN liveblog:
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FiveThirtyEight categorized all of the competitive House races into three groups: Group A were the "path of least resistance," the seats that Republicans had to win in order to gain control of the House. Group B were additional seats where Republicans were favored, although they were close enough that they could go either way. And Group C were the seats where the Democrats were slightly favored, which could be evidence of a larger-than-expected Republican tidal wave if they went red.

So far, the Republicans have won several seats in Group C...and haven't lost any in Groups A or B.
 
Whovian said:
and an evening-out there has been in PA....

1455 of 9241 Precincts Reporting
Senate:
D Joe Sestak 59% 280,599
R Pat Toomey 41% 194,535


1417 of 9241 Precincts Reporting
Governor:
D Dan Onorato 56% 260,770
R Tom Corbett 44% 202,641
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Senate:
3247 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Joe Sestak 55% 611,499
R Pat Toomey 45% 498,970


Governor:
3172 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Dan Onorato 51% 557,167
R Tom Corbett 49% 531,402
 
Kandahar said:
FiveThirtyEight categorized all of the competitive House races into three groups: Group A were the "path of least resistance," the seats that Republicans had to win in order to gain control of the House. Group B were additional seats where Republicans were favored, although they were close enough that they could go either way. And Group C were the seats where the Democrats were slightly favored, which could be evidence of a larger-than-expected Republican tidal wave if they went red.

So far, the Republicans have won several seats in Group C...and haven't lost any in Groups A or B.
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I guess it depends on your definition of "expected." Some people were talking 100+.
 
CriticalThought said:
Just a reminder that the average midterm turnover is 28 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate. Determining how well Republicans did will be by how much more than that they get.
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Nope, determining how well the GOP does if they solve problems in the next two years. I have not heard any solutions, just finger pointing. Hope it ain't more of the same since 94, broken promises from both the GOP and Dems.
 
Deuce said:
I guess it depends on your definition of "expected." Some people were talking 100+.
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I don't know of many legitimate sources reporting 100. Most respected pollsters and such were in the 40-60 range I think.
 
Deuce said:
I guess it depends on your definition of "expected." Some people were talking 100+.
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Those people were just throwing out numbers. Right now 55-60 seats looks like what it will end up being.
 
Whovian said:
Senate:
3247 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Joe Sestak 55% 611,499
R Pat Toomey 45% 498,970


Governor:
3172 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Dan Onorato 51% 557,167
R Tom Corbett 49% 531,402
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Damn, this is moving fast...

Senate:
4029 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Joe Sestak 54% 747,364
R Pat Toomey 46% 624,149

Governor:
4020 of 9241 Precincts Reporting

Party Candidate V% Votes
D Dan Onorato 51% 693,506
R Tom Corbett 49% 671,025
 
Mind you, a week ago the "realistic" estimates seemed to be in the 40 range and MAYBE challenging for the senate as a very outside shot. Things got ramped up heavily in this past week, but I wouldn't call not meeting those ramped up expectation "disappointing". I would call not meeting the expectations from a two weeks or so back by most people would be however.
 
Deuce said:
I guess it depends on your definition of "expected." Some people were talking 100+.
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No serious observers predicted that. Most estimates were in the 50-60 seat range. And it looks like it's still going to be on the higher end of that range, or maybe slightly above it.
 
Whovian said:
How the hell is Onorato ahead 67% to 33% when he was behind in the polls?
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Maybe, they borrowed voting machines from Ohio that were used in 2004??????
 
Zyphlin said:
I don't know of many legitimate sources reporting 100. Most respected pollsters and such were in the 40-60 range I think.
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According to Pelosi...
"The early returns show so far that a number of Democrats are coming out and we are on pace to maintain the majority in the House of Representatives," said Pelosi.
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