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Thread: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

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    Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP



    It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood. The wake up call has gone out and and it is working.

    Just now I heard on Radio that one in 4 Democrats believe we are headed in the wrong direction.

    It is being reporter that the unemployment will not go down for the next 10 years, and is expected to reach 11% next year.

    If Obama was half as brainy as claimed he would have seem how wrong he has been and changed. But he's too damned arrogant to admit defeat and the error of his thinking.

    We are set to see a massive shift in in everything and it could not happen too fast.


    GOP Threatens Once Safe Democratic Seats - WSJ.com

    By NEIL KING JR. And PETER WALLSTEN

    Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, expanding the terrain for potential GOP gains and raising the party's hopes for a significant victory in next month's elections.

    Republican advances in traditionally Democratic states, including Connecticut, Oregon and Washington, may not translate into a wave of GOP victories. But they have rattled local campaigns and forced the Democrats to shift attention and money to races they didn't expect to be defending.

    Rising sentiment against the party in power has washed ashore even in coastal Oregon, where Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio won his 10th re-election two years ago with 82% of the vote.

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Cook: 12 Dem incumbents are underdogs - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

    charlie cook, received as gospel by the insiders, who almost never alters his projections, the personification of caution, moved TWELVE troubled dems saturday from tossup to lean republican

    his reasoning was thus:

    “Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status,” wrote Cook’s House Editor David Wasserman. “It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”
    mr cook, who has been predicting for months a net red pickup of 40 to 50 seats, with a greater likelihood of a larger gain than a smaller, has suddenly become more BULLISH

    what cook is seeing are unprecedented, historical, revolutionary trends discovered by poll after poll after poll---in the areas of voter enthusiasm (a 20-ish point spread), independents (also around 20%), undecideds (47 to 29 according to clintonista mark penn), a sapping of hispanic support (cut in half), a doubling of gop preference by working class whites (the old reagan democrats who comprise 40% of the electorate)...

    so much in this election is firmly set and not to change---but INDEPENDENTS, UNDECIDEDS, ENTHUSIASM, these outcomes are the open parameters, and they will prove determinative

    and, like i said, they appear revolutionary in range

    mr cook now has NINETY dem seats in danger, with the roster steadily rising

    The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

    and i can tell you with confidence that at least a few incembent dems NOT on cook's stove WILL ALSO go, it's the nature of house races

    that'd be someone like JOHN DINGELL, health care warrior from MI15 since 1955, BARNEY FRANK, DAVID OBERSTAR, PETER DEFAZIO, RAUL GRIJALVA (who encouraged the other 49 to BOYCOTT his arizona), JOHN SPRATT (budget chair), NICK RAHALL (resources), IKE SKELTON (armed services)...

    the hill last week surveyed 12 dem freshmen from AZ, CO, IL, MD, MI, NV, NM, OH, PA and VA and found ELEVEN trailing their upstart opposition and the twelfth (mark schauer in MI) tied

    District by district: 12 freshman Democrats in danger - TheHill.com

    further, mark penn and the writers at the hill (where msnbc's chuck todd got his start) worry that none of the incumbents comes even close to 50%, indeed, all are under 40, and their net average is exactly 40% support in their own districts

    knowing which way UNDECIDEDS are likely to go, and by what margin, knowing how ENTHUSED are the opp's and INDEPENDENTS, there is indeed very little chance that a sitting incumbent in this position (even if he or she were conducting any kind of VALID campaign, which she can't these days) has virtually zero chance of returning

    next week the hill is going to examine the FIFTEEN open seats abandoned by dem vets for whatever reasons, many of them former GIANTS of the house---david obey, charlie melancon, brad ellsworth, bart gordon, joe sestak, marion berry, vic snyder, brain baird, paul hodes, mike delahunt...

    but we already know what the results are gonna be, penn and the hill telegraphed it, cook agrees, so do sabato and rothenberg, as well as jay cost and sean trende, all nicely summed up daily on rcp

    FOUR of the 15 opens are LIKELY RED---melancon, snyder, john tanner and eric massa

    TEN are LEAN R---berry, stupak, sestak, hodes, gordon, baird, obey, ellsworth, alan mollohan (22 year vet from WV) and mrs moore in KS

    ONE is TOSSUP---delahunt in cape cod, MA10

    next in the series for the hill, after telling us what we already knew about the opens, will be a look at 2 termers in trouble

    and then, finally, in the fourth week, the BULLS---frank, dingell, defazio, grijalva...

    fascinating

    i'll be sure to keep you informed

    as for blue takeovers of red districts, there are FOUR in play, nationally

    charles djou in HI1 who only won his special a few months ago cuz bull senator daniel inouye revolted against his state party

    but djou took obama's childhood home with 39%, which is a pretty good start, and folks in pineapple land think he's done a good job

    a DAILY KOS poll (the only people who picked martha coakley in chappaquiddick teddy's seat) last week showed honolulu council woman colleen hanabusa leading mr djou by only a point

    the governorship of the islands, democrat for 42 years, is also bizarrely close---something definitely is going on in the middle of the pacific

    anyway, djou, who started as a sure blue pickup has suddenly been moved to tossup

    another sure to go blue was sposed to be joseph cao, the vietnamese seminarian from new orleans who was the only republican in pelosi's place to vote for obamacare

    he was also always a safe pickup, but then suddenly last week he too was leapfrogged to tossup, tho cook moved him back to lean dem (not likely dem) saturday

    the other two red seats in play are mike castle's at large in delaware, LEAN dem

    and mark kirk's IL10, gop for 100 years, but very uniquely so, a tossup

    kirk is running against alex giannoulias for IL senate, burris/obama's seat, (giannoulias testified yesterday on mtp that he was not aware of the "extant" of the criminal behavior engaged in by so many of the people to whom his bankrupt bank lent tens of millions, all lost)

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43377.html

    kirk might be the most liberal republican i have ever encountered, i actually saw him once equivocate on partial birth abortion

    anyway, IL10, kirk's seat is open, and it's tossup

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...house_map.html

    take care
    Last edited by The Prof; 10-11-10 at 06:34 PM.

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    correction: hawaii is governed by a republican, linda lingle

    before she took office in 02 the state was 42 years democrat

    sorry

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Councilman thinks this a pirate movie.

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    rcp generic today at an all time hi

    gallup's is by far the highest in the history of our first national pollster

    RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

    seeya at the polls, pals

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Democrats are being challeneged in a midterm that isn't hospitable to them.

    Thanks for the news bro.

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    correction: hawaii is governed by a republican, linda lingle

    before she took office in 02 the state was 42 years democrat

    sorry
    Linda Lingle is also arguebly the most liberal Republican in US history next to Chaffe. What's your point?
    Last edited by obvious Child; 10-12-10 at 03:04 AM.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Quote Originally Posted by hazlnut View Post
    Councilman thinks this a pirate movie.
    At a loss to come up with an intelligent will thought out comment that was ever close to relevant.

    The Truth is the Democrats are on the ropes all over and the desperation is becoming more and more obvious.

    Try responding to the facts, and here is a place where you can see a few facts on the races: Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    To crib from "Red Dragon," Republicans have at least one disadvantage this election season: They're insane.

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    Re: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

    Quote Originally Posted by Troubadour View Post
    To crib from "Red Dragon," Republicans have at least one disadvantage this election season: They're insane.
    Why?


    j-mac
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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