5 polls outta PA today, reds lead in 4, all held by dems (except for blue open PA7, sestak)
note the terrifying turnouts for the incumbents at this late date, 39.6 avg, disturbingly below 50
note also the wide disparity of poll sources, also troubling in that they tend to confirm each other
PA7 sestak, W philly burbs, delaware county, gop up, 34-32, franklin marshall
PA8 patrick murphy, NE philly and burbs, bucks county, reds ahead, 51-46, monmouth
obama was there monday so expect michael fitzpatrick to get a bump
for instance, pat toomey opened up his biggest lead over admiral sestak in 6 months in today's rasmussen
Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate - Rasmussen Reports™
PA10 chris carney, NY border region, susquehanna county, very red, cook R+8, republicans romp, 44-38, critical insight
PA11 paul kanjorski, ethically challenged (pma), NE, blue collar, scranton, wilkes-barre, knuckle draggers lead, 43-41, critical insight
in PA12, johnstown, murtha's seat, filled by mark critz a couple months ago in the special by beating tim burns (critz campaigned against obamacare) against whom the incumbent is rematched: critz leads, according to susquehanna, 43 to 36, with 21 undecided
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 House Polls
if you've read this far, i think it's time you should know exactly where this gargantuan battle for control of legislative initiative will be decided:
people like me are looking at EIGHT seats in pn, NINE in ny, SIX in ohio, FOUR in florida, FOUR in illinois, FOUR in michigan
of the smaller states, several will play extremely critical roles:
4 seats each in AZ, VA, WA, CO, NC, and, if the CENTRAL VALLEY is indeed in play, then 4 also in my state, CA
MY district, by the way, CA11, jerry mcnerny---we're not often surveyed, we led by one last i heard about 2 months ago, it's rated total tossup (that'd make it about pickup number 50 for my side)---susa (survey usa) YESTERDAY released EXCITING data, upstart DAVID HARMER (who lost to our ambitious insurance commissioner john garamendi in the special exactly a year ago to replace ellen tauscher, promoted by hrc to state dept, in neighboring walnut creek, CA10) up by SIX!
all i can tell you about crucial CA11, my home, is---we are a very tossup district, we go presidentially with winners, there is most definitely a very strong and excited tea party presence here, my fellow public school teachers are generally very pessimistic and dispirited
states with three DEM seats up for grabs---TN, IN, WI, NM, GA, ARK, IN
locales like north and south dakota, kansas, new hampshire don't offer many pickups because they don't have many seats, but those they do are all or almost all in trouble
fyi