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Thread: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by jujuman13 View Post
    Oh WOW, what a clever chappie your are to post this 'forecast' for the 2nd quarter, in the 3rd quarter.
    thats just what i think is going to happen. the stimulus is phasing out, and the numbers are not looking encouraging. also, i think it would be the 3rd and 4th quarter.
    Last edited by drz-400; 09-03-10 at 02:04 PM.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    thats just what i think is going to happen. the stimulus is phasing out, and the numbers are not looking encouraging. also, i think it would be the 3rd and 4th quarter.
    Anyone that spent that kind of money(stimulus) and generated these results in private industry would be fired. The fact that most Obama supporters still ignore is that actual unemployment is higher each month this year vs. the same month last year. No matter how Obama spins it the American people are finally waking up to the radical they elected.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Were there more or less people unemployed in August 2010 vs. 2009? Were there more or less people employed in August 2010 vs. 2009?

    Another stimulus? How was the first stimulus spent?
    more unemployed in 2010.

    How it was spent:


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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    more unemployed in 2010.

    How it was spent:

    Exactly, more people unemployed in 2010 than in 2009 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    2009 11919 12714 13310 13816 14518 14721 14534 14993 15159 15612 15340 15267
    2010 14837 14871 15005 15260 14973 14623 14599 14860

    Discouraged workers

    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110

    Unemployed + Discouraged
    2008 8095 7831 8194 8043 8797 8980 9356 9890 10036 10656 11225 12042
    2009 12653 13445 13995 14556 15310 15514 15330 15751 15865 16420 16201 16196
    2010 15902 16075 15999 16457 16056 15830 15784 15970


    As for the tax cuts, here is what you call a tax cut which if compared to Bush's was not stimulative at all.

    Tax cuts


    Total: $288 billion
    Tax cuts for individuals

    Total: $237 billion

    • $116 billion: New payroll tax credit of $400 per worker and $800 per couple in 2009 and 2010. Phaseout begins at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers.[29]
    • $70 billion: Alternative minimum tax: a one year increase in AMT floor to $70,950 for joint filers for 2009.[29]
    • $15 billion: Expansion of child tax credit: A $1,000 credit to more families (even those that do not make enough money to pay income taxes).
    • $14 billion: Expanded college credit to provide a $2,500 expanded tax credit for college tuition and related expenses for 2009 and 2010. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $160,000.
    • $6.6 billion: Homebuyer credit: $8,000 refundable credit for all homes bought between 1/1/2009 and 12/1/2009 and repayment provision repealed for homes purchased in 2009 and held more than three years. This only applies to first-time homebuyers.[41]
    • $4.7 billion: Excluding from taxation the first $2,400 a person receives in unemployment compensation benefits in 2009.
    • $4.7 billion: Expanded earned income tax credit to increase the earned income tax credit — which provides money to low income workers — for families with at least three children.
    • $4.3 billion: Home energy credit to provide an expanded credit to homeowners who make their homes more energy-efficient in 2009 and 2010. Homeowners could recoup 30 percent of the cost up to $1,500 of numerous projects, such as installing energy-efficient windows, doors, furnaces and air conditioners.
    • $1.7 billion: for deduction of sales tax from car purchases, not interest payments phased out for incomes above $250,000.

    Bush Tax cuts

    Between 2001 and 2003, the Bush administration instituted a federal tax cut for all taxpayers. Among other changes, the lowest income tax rate was lowered from 15% to 10%, the 27% rate went to 25%, the 30% rate went to 28%, the 35% rate went to 33%, and the top marginal tax rate went from 39.6% to 35%.[3] In addition, the child tax credit went from $500 to $1000, and the "marriage penalty" was reduced. Since the cuts were implemented as part of the annual congressional budget resolution, which protected the bill from filibusters, numerous amendments, and more than 20 hours of debate, it had to include a sunset clause. Unless congress passes legislation making the tax cuts permanent, they will expire in 2011.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Exactly, more people unemployed in 2010 than in 2009 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    2009 11919 12714 13310 13816 14518 14721 14534 14993 15159 15612 15340 15267
    2010 14837 14871 15005 15260 14973 14623 14599 14860

    Discouraged workers

    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110

    Unemployed + Discouraged
    2008 8095 7831 8194 8043 8797 8980 9356 9890 10036 10656 11225 12042
    2009 12653 13445 13995 14556 15310 15514 15330 15751 15865 16420 16201 16196
    2010 15902 16075 15999 16457 16056 15830 15784 15970


    As for the tax cuts, here is what you call a tax cut which if compared to Bush's was not stimulative at all.

    Tax cuts


    Total: $288 billion
    Tax cuts for individuals

    Total: $237 billion

    • $116 billion: New payroll tax credit of $400 per worker and $800 per couple in 2009 and 2010. Phaseout begins at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers.[29]
    • $70 billion: Alternative minimum tax: a one year increase in AMT floor to $70,950 for joint filers for 2009.[29]
    • $15 billion: Expansion of child tax credit: A $1,000 credit to more families (even those that do not make enough money to pay income taxes).
    • $14 billion: Expanded college credit to provide a $2,500 expanded tax credit for college tuition and related expenses for 2009 and 2010. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $160,000.
    • $6.6 billion: Homebuyer credit: $8,000 refundable credit for all homes bought between 1/1/2009 and 12/1/2009 and repayment provision repealed for homes purchased in 2009 and held more than three years. This only applies to first-time homebuyers.[41]
    • $4.7 billion: Excluding from taxation the first $2,400 a person receives in unemployment compensation benefits in 2009.
    • $4.7 billion: Expanded earned income tax credit to increase the earned income tax credit — which provides money to low income workers — for families with at least three children.
    • $4.3 billion: Home energy credit to provide an expanded credit to homeowners who make their homes more energy-efficient in 2009 and 2010. Homeowners could recoup 30 percent of the cost up to $1,500 of numerous projects, such as installing energy-efficient windows, doors, furnaces and air conditioners.
    • $1.7 billion: for deduction of sales tax from car purchases, not interest payments phased out for incomes above $250,000.

    Bush Tax cuts

    Between 2001 and 2003, the Bush administration instituted a federal tax cut for all taxpayers. Among other changes, the lowest income tax rate was lowered from 15% to 10%, the 27% rate went to 25%, the 30% rate went to 28%, the 35% rate went to 33%, and the top marginal tax rate went from 39.6% to 35%.[3] In addition, the child tax credit went from $500 to $1000, and the "marriage penalty" was reduced. Since the cuts were implemented as part of the annual congressional budget resolution, which protected the bill from filibusters, numerous amendments, and more than 20 hours of debate, it had to include a sunset clause. Unless congress passes legislation making the tax cuts permanent, they will expire in 2011.
    When analyzing the effects of say a tax cut or stimulus bill, it is useful to look at the economy with the legislation, and the economy without the legislation, and compare the two. That way the only difference captured is the legislation itself.

    For example, the CBO has done this. A stimilus bill without the tax cuts and more government spending/transfer payments (unemployed, to states) would have been more effective than a tax cut.

    In addition, I support the extension of the bush tax cuts (at least temporarily) . I am willing to compromise with those more concerned with the deficit to only sunset the provisions that take effect more so on the wealthy (capital gains, dividends, PEP, top bracket), however given our environment I would prefer a full extension through 2011. A stimulus bill (focusing on infrastructure, unemployment benefits, and aid to states) would be even more preferable to me, but that is doubtful.
    Last edited by drz-400; 09-03-10 at 02:47 PM.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August



    Saw this and had to post it

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    When analyzing the effects of say a tax cut or stimulus bill, it is useful to look at the economy with the legislation, and the economy without the legislation, and compare the two. That way the only difference captured is the legislation itself.

    For example, the CBO has done this. A stimilus bill without the tax cuts and more government spending/transfer payments (unemployed, to states) would have been more effective than a tax cut.

    In addition, I support the extension of the bush tax cuts (at least temporarily) . I am willing to compromise with those more concerned with the deficit to only sunset the provisions that take effect more so on the wealthy (capital gains, dividends, PEP, top bracket), however given our environment I would prefer a full extension through 2011. A stimulus bill (focusing on infrastructure, unemployment benefits, and aid to states) would be even more preferable to me, but that is doubtful.
    I find it interesting how much faith so many put into the CBO PROJECTIONS when the track record of those projections is very poor. CBO is commissioned by the Congress to score bills and initiatives but do so based only on the principles they are given. For example they were given the economic projections of the Obama Administration to score Obama legislation. The information provided by Obama officials have been garbage thus the CBO projections wrong and there in lies the problem.

    I put zero faith in the CBO not because of the people at the CBO but because of flawed data provided by politicians. No one should ever take CBO projections as being accurate.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Actually, what's far more interesting than that is the supposed reliability of the CBO depending on whether it's giving convenient or inconvenient estimates.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    Actually, what's far more interesting than that is the supposed reliability of the CBO depending on whether it's giving convenient or inconvenient estimates.
    There is no question that the CBO is made up of both party members but anytime you are restricted in the data you use and bound by Congressional directives the data is going to be skewed and in most cases wrong. Just think, Obama projected 4% economic growth each year and we have 1.6% growth this year.What affect does that have on CBO projections since they had to use the 4% number?

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 9.6 Percent in August

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    Or, we could, just spitballing here, not throw good money after bad, especially with no end in sight to massive, massive deficits.
    You don't seem to be "on the bus" Harshaw...





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