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Thread: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

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    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

    As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

    Actual poll results

    http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Eh, I'm not so sure presidential approval ratings correlate very strongly to house and senate election results. That said, I do think the right-wingers are going to be disappointed at their results this November. They've got themselves all fired up and expecting a landslide.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    If you go here you can keep up with many of the trends and the attitudes of a number of your fellow Americans: http://http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ I find the polls often conflict with what you here see and read in the "Lame Stream Media."

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

    As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.
    Yes, but the Democrats are coming off two back-to-back landslide elections in 2006 and 2008. That means that they currently hold more marginal seats than the Republicans did in 2006, or the Democrats did in 1994. Even if voters were evenly split in their preference for Democrats or Republicans, that would translate into substantial losses for the Democrats.

    Also, as Deuce said, I think the correlation between the president's approval ratings and his party's congressional result is weak-to-medium, at best.

    I hope that the Democrats don't lose too many seats in November, but if they do I won't be too terribly disappointed. Health care reform has already passed, and that victory alone is more than worth a drubbing in the polls in 2010.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    There is something missing from the poll - How much the base is energized for each party. The GOP base is revved up, but the Democrat base is, for the most part, apathetic. This translates into more votes for Republicans. Now, while I don't expect the GOP to actually take back either house, I do expect them to make substantial gains in both. This will be because Democrats have not seen Obama live up to the promises he made while campaigning. Many see him as Bush Lite, and as a result, you can expect many to stay away from the polls this year.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

    As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

    Actual poll results

    http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Health care reform has already passed, and that victory alone is more than worth a drubbing in the polls in 2010.
    Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

    As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

    Actual poll results

    http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
    Eh, Newsweek polls are notoriously inaccurate. Rasmussen is the polling firm I trust, as through the past 3 election cycles, they've been the most accurate on election day. Take a look at these numbers, they certainly suggest something quite different...


    __________________________________________________ ______________

    58% Favor Repeal of the Health Care Law, 36% Are Opposed
    __________________________________________________ ______________

    Voters Now Trust Republicans More On All 10 Key Issues

    Education 40% 41%

    Health Care 40% 48%

    Iraq 40% 43%

    Economy 39% 47%

    Social Security 38% 44%

    Government Ethics 38% 40%

    National Security 37% 49%

    Afghanistan 36% 43%

    Taxes 36% 52%

    Immigration 35% 44%
    __________________________________________________ ____________

    Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 38%
    __________________________________________________ ______________

    16% Say Congress Doing A Good or Excellent Job; 56% Say Poor

    Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere
    Last edited by damianvincent; 08-30-10 at 03:26 PM.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    In general, I don't trust generic ballot polls (would you vote Republican or Democrat) because people have a tendency to view their own representative differently than the party as a whole.

    Cook Political Report has 40 seats in "toss-up" (largely Democrats) and an additional 36 leaning (again, largely Democratic).

    For instance, a guy named Mike Ross, D-AR is in a district rated R+7 (meaning largely Republican) and he considered likely to be safe as a Democrat.

    Additionally, since this is nation-wide polling, it's also including those people in districts that are simply never going to change party because of gerrymandering.

    You really have to focus on the 40 or so seats that are actually at risk to see what's going to happen.

    Republicans are going to make gains, for sure. I still don't think they'll take a majority, though. If they do, it will be relatively slim.

    Honestly, I've reached the point of not really caring which party is in control. I just want actual governing to occur. And by governing - I mean serving all Americans, even those you disagree with. Both parties have become victims of over-estimating their political capital.

    Sadly, if Republicans take control, I fear that they will merely continue this trend.

    Everyone - from Bush to Delay to Cheney to Obama to Pelosi to Reid keep thinking they have a "mandate" when they win.

    From now on, I want my leaders to realize, that unless they won like 80 - 90% of the vote, they've not been given a mandate to do anything. They've been given permission to represent their community - and usually by a slim to moderate margin.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by damianvincent View Post
    Eh, Newsweek polls are notoriously inaccurate. Rasmussen is the polling firm I trust, as through the past 3 election cycles, they've been the most accurate on election day. Take a look at these numbers, they certainly suggest something quite different...


    __________________________________________________ ______________

    58% Favor Repeal of the Health Care Law, 36% Are Opposed
    __________________________________________________ ______________

    Voters Now Trust Republicans More On All 10 Key Issues

    Education 40% 41%

    Health Care 40% 48%

    Iraq 40% 43%

    Economy 39% 47%

    Social Security 38% 44%

    Government Ethics 38% 40%

    National Security 37% 49%

    Afghanistan 36% 43%

    Taxes 36% 52%

    Immigration 35% 44%
    __________________________________________________ ____________

    Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 38%
    __________________________________________________ ______________

    16% Say Congress Doing A Good or Excellent Job; 56% Say Poor

    Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere
    Just four short years ago, people thought exactly the opposite.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/us...cs/21poll.html

    So, see my above post.

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