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NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath


A link for what? You want a link to explain how a law is passed? Fine, here:



The Prof said:
meanwhile, in THE NEWS:

health secty---reeducation is called for

Sebelius: Time for 'Reeducation' on Obama Health Care Law - The Note

but, concerning obamacare "democratic candidates are being instructed to promote their independence from the party and from capitol hill," ie, don't talk about it

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Republicans making health care bill a midterm wedge issue « - Blogs from CNN.com

nor their "legislative accomplishments"

Endangered Dems quiet on key votes - Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com

herndon, which "coordinates" for the seiu, aflcio, la raza, moveon and others, "abandons claims that [obamacare] will reduce costs and the deficit and instead stresses a promise to 'improve it.'"

Dems retreat on health care cost pitch - Ben Smith - POLITICO.com

hcan, meanwhile, works to reward its supporters---by "changing the subject"

Health reform group aids campaigns - Sarah Kliff - POLITICO.com

kind of a pinch, no?

surviving dems will join gop house leadership in undoing the mandate

an excellent start

You can spin it however you like, but the fact is that it's already a law, and there is absolutely no way in hell that the Republicans are going to get a supermajority in the Senate AND control of the House of Representatives AND control of the White House before it takes effect in 2014. It's just not going to happen. But if you want to tilt at windmills, be my guest.
 
NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

I agree completely. The Democrats should rest easy and not waste time and energy going ot the polls in November. They've got it in the bag.
 
A link for what? You want a link to explain how a law is passed? Fine, here:





You can spin it however you like, but the fact is that it's already a law, and there is absolutely no way in hell that the Republicans are going to get a supermajority in the Senate AND control of the House of Representatives AND control of the White House before it takes effect in 2014. It's just not going to happen. But if you want to tilt at windmills, be my guest.


They don't have to.

All they have to do is control the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Appropriations Committee and oh, gee, if the bill isn't funded, the bill dies.

It's really that simple.
 
They don't have to.

All they have to do is control the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Appropriations Committee and oh, gee, if the bill isn't funded, the bill dies.

It's really that simple.

Wrong. Only DISCRETIONARY spending needs to be funded by Congress each year. ENTITLEMENT spending, which comprises the vast majority of the health care reform law, does not require any vote from Congress. It happens automatically. Congress would need to repeal it if they wanted to defund it. At most, all the Republicans can do is not vote to fund some small, non-controversial sections within the law which are discretionary spending.
 
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LOL!

abc, cnn and politico are my spin?

Political pundits spin stories because they need to get people excited so they have an audience. What's YOUR excuse?
 
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Wrong. Only DISCRETIONARY spending needs to be funded by Congress each year. ENTITLEMENT spending, which comprises the vast majority of the health care reform law, does not require any vote from Congress. It happens automatically. Congress would need to repeal it if they wanted to defund it. At most, all the Republicans can do is not vote to fund some small, non-controversial sections within the law which are discretionary spending.

That may be.

And when the Congress refuses to raise the taxes to fund the unconstitutional entitlements?

Not to mention that your asssumption that a supermajority will be needed in the Senate to repeal that monstrocity is flawed, as is your assumption that such a majority can't happen.

As the nation continues to orbit the porcelain funnel, the nation will continue to move away from the failed policies of the past that got us into the fix. That means the Democrats are going to losing more than just this next election, because it's their socialist policies that have failed.

Messiahcare was passed against the will of 60% of the people by the use of bribes and parliamentary tricks. A damn good argument can be made that the law is unconstitutional simply because the legislators didn't read the damn thing before they voted for it. Opposition to MessiahCare has grown since then, and it isn't going to fade as it's economic impact becomes felt.

Explain the Constitutionality of an entitlement spending plan for a program that itself violates the Constitution.
 
That may be.

And when the Congress refuses to raise the taxes to fund the unconstitutional entitlements?

Then we'll borrow money. Do you understand the concept of deficit spending? Where have you been for the past ten years?

Scarecrow Akhbar said:
Not to mention that your asssumption that a supermajority will be needed in the Senate to repeal that monstrocity is flawed,

Oh, you think the Republicans will nuke the filibuster as soon as they get a majority? Unlikely, as they don't want the Democrats doing the same thing when they're back in power. But even if that were the case, it would just delay health care a few more years. As soon as the Democrats came back to power, they'd just pass it again, this time without the constraint of the filibuster.

Scarecrow Akhbar said:
as is your assumption that such a majority can't happen.

It is absolutely, positively not going to happen. The Republicans currently control 41 Senate seats. They need 60. That means that between this year and 2012, they'd need to pick up a total of 19 seats (as well as a majority of the House of Representatives and the presidency). It's just not going to happen, and you have to REALLY be deluding yourself to think otherwise.

Scarecrow Akhbar said:
As the nation continues to orbit the porcelain funnel, the nation will continue to move away from the failed policies of the past that got us into the fix. That means the Democrats are going to losing more than just this next election, because it's their socialist policies that have failed.

:roll:
Ah yes, of course. The voters have seen the errors of their ways and are permanently going to realign and see the world exactly as you see it...starting right now. Why, that may be the first time I've ever heard anyone ever make that claim before! I'm sure that the track record on those kind of claims is flawless. :roll:

Scarecrow Akhbar said:
Messiahcare was passed against the will of 60% of the people by the use of bribes and parliamentary tricks. A damn good argument can be made that the law is unconstitutional simply because the legislators didn't read the damn thing before they voted for it. Opposition to MessiahCare has grown since then, and it isn't going to fade as it's economic impact becomes felt.

Two points to make here:
1) The Constitution contains no provision requiring legislators to read bills before they pass them.
2) Sure, you can find polls saying 60% of people oppose the health care law, but how many of them actually give a damn? The reason the Democrats are in trouble right now is because unemployment is at 9.5%, not because they passed health care reform.

Scarecrow Akhbar said:
Explain the Constitutionality of an entitlement spending plan for a program that itself violates the Constitution.

The Supreme Court has consistently upheld the constitutionality of entitlement programs for at least 75 years, and this one won't be any different.
 
NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

I agree completely. The Democrats should rest easy and not waste time and energy going ot the polls in November. They've got it in the bag.

Newsweek misreported their own poll.... They lied!
 
NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf




So you trust Newsweek?


Really?
 
Newsweek misreported their own poll.... They lied!

Yeah, I read that article, seems newsweek purposely tweaked the sample to favor dems, pretty sad, but expected from them, probably why they are in a freefall and about to go under.
 
Here's what Newsweek reported:

tab1.jpg


Look at the numbers... On the surface then don't look right. When you take their own polling numbers, here's what you really get:

tab2.jpg


Newsweek is full of crap, but if clinging to it make you feel better, then go for it.

.
 
Well, who was Obama before he came to national prominence? Maybe there's somebody that just hasn't tripped the radar yet.

Could be....I think it will have to be. There is nobody in the current lot that is going to beat Obama. The best shot is Romney and I don't think the GOP base has the brains or the guts to nominate him.
 
It's really interesting just to see how much the American population fluctuates with it's political views. The Dems will lose some seats, but not as many as some people think. They will still have the majority, hopefully the economy will start to rebound by the time of the next presidential elections.
 
It's really interesting just to see how much the American population fluctuates with it's political views. The Dems will lose some seats, but not as many as some people think. They will still have the majority, hopefully the economy will start to rebound by the time of the next presidential elections.

This whole debacle has me wondering if the American people could do in our time what they did during the Great Depression, and war ... doesn't seem so, thus far. Just a whole bunch of whining going on.
 
It's really interesting just to see how much the American population fluctuates with it's political views. The Dems will lose some seats, but not as many as some people think. They will still have the majority, hopefully the economy will start to rebound by the time of the next presidential elections.

I'd like to see what numbers you'd base this estimate upon.
 
why listen to charlie cook, larry sabato or the "widely monitored" crystal ball when you have the linkless analyses of the professional membership of this fine forum

underlying the wave cook, sabato and campbell all foresee are the 47 house dems currently representing districts won BOTH by george w what's-his-name and ex-maverick mccain in 04 and 08

FT.com / US / Politics & Foreign policy - Democrats face midterm meltdown

UB professor predicts House will go to Republicans - Washington - The Buffalo News

meanwhile, today, enthusiasm data:

By a 3-to-1 margin, more of these highly opinionated people strongly disapproved of the president's effort on the economy than strongly approved. More strongly disapproved of Obama's actions by a 2-to-1 ratio on unemployment, 2-1 on health care, 6-1 on the deficit and 2-1 on terrorism. His performance on Afghanistan, taxes, immigration and gas prices also drew strong disapproval.

Of the most frequently mentioned issues, the only one where most did not strongly disapprove of Obama's work was education, on which they were closely divided. They were also split over his handling of energy, the environment and the oil spill.

In many instances, though, GOP sentiment was more decisive. For example, among Republicans calling the economy extremely important, 79 percent strongly disapproved of Obama's efforts on the issue and 1 percent strongly approved. The margin was much narrower among Democrats: 27 percent strongly approved while 16 percent strongly disapproved.

Looking at independents who considered an issue extremely or very important, more strongly disapproved than strongly approved of Obama's handling of 12 of the 15 issues. This included mostly negative views of Obama from independents on 10 of the 11 issues most frequently cited by people as important, including the economy, unemployment and health care.

RealClearPolitics - Politics - Aug 31, 2010 - AP-GfK Poll: Most attuned voters tilt toward GOP

links, you gotta love em
 
NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

Actual poll results

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf

It's nice to dream.
 
Could be....I think it will have to be. There is nobody in the current lot that is going to beat Obama. The best shot is Romney and I don't think the GOP base has the brains or the guts to nominate him.

I wouldn't be surprised if the DNC ran someone against Obama, because they know his dumbass can't win a second term.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the DNC ran someone against Obama, because they know his dumbass can't win a second term.

I doubt that would happen, but Obama better do something or he is headed for one term. If the Presidential election was held in November a Republican tin can would beat Obama.
 
Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.
He probably won't succeed....
I know several conservatives who used to want repeal, but since have gotten ill, or had a family member get ill, and they find out just how expensive it can be even with an 80/20 plan...
They might have a better chance of modifying it to cover catastrophic (meaning expensive) care only.
 
a few more fyi's from your friendly prof

rcp moved washington today, rossi's raced ahead to +7 and +3 point leads, according to most recent survey usa and rasmussen, respectively

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Senate No Toss Ups

that'd leave us TWO short, with nevada, wisconsin, california, connecticut and maryland still available

worry

rossi, for your information, was participant in the closest gub election in us history

he was actually certified claimant in 04 until a second hand-recount rather ripped him off (kinda like stuart smalley in minnesota)

ms gregoire beat him more handily in the 08 rematch, the year of the one, 53 to 47

but things have changed pretty far since then, which, of course, is the point
 
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