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Thread: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    To not repeat myself, I'll just link to my post in another thread here: http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-ele...post1058954443

    Sorry, but anyone who thinks that the GOP won't control the house either hasn't noticed what is going on, or has tried to blind themselves to it. I would be surprised if they picked up less than 50 seats, and wouldn't be surprised if they picked up more than 60.

    I don't know why you said that about the South; the GOP has potential gains pretty much everywhere now, including areas where they don't usually win much, like the Northeast and the West. Maybe you said that because of numbers that show that their numbers in the South are racheting up the numbers for the country as a whole, but that is always the case. The important thing is not how well they do in a region, but how well they do in a region compared to the norm. If they win only one or two House elections in New England, it will be more than they already have now.

    Generic Ballots aren't accurate tools to show election outcomes, but they do show general trends. For the Democrats to come back from the shorfall they have now would be unprecedented, and if they keep the House by a single seat, it will be one of the largest political upsets in U.S. history.
    Compare the link I provided, and got from you, to your link. Notice how they tell a different story. Now, why do you think that is? It's because of the inherent flaw in generic polling.

    Edit ti respond to your edit: who is this Nate Silver?
    Last edited by Redress; 08-31-10 at 12:17 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    What you have to understand is most of the polling that people base the bloodbath on is generic polling, which is basically worthless. The repubs will make significant gains in the south, but only small gains the rest of the country, so things could very well end up as he describes.I could easily see repubs get as any as 20 seat majority in the house, with 10 not at all unlikely, but if I where to guess, it will be a very close to split house. Dems will almost surely keep control of the senate, but probably not by more than 2 or 3 seats.
    Perhaps but the numbers I was speaking of where specific, not the generic ballot. Plus I'll add, the Republicans are almost certain to pick up seats in, Co, Fl, Il, In, MD, Mi, Nh, Nm, Nv, Pa, Wa, Wi, Ny, all of which are out of the South. It's really not looking good for the Dems. I'd say it's twice as likely the Repubs win the Senate than the Dems keep the house.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Compare the link I provided, and got from you, to your link. Notice how they tell a different story. Now, why do you think that is? It's because of the inherent flaw in generic polling.
    Generic Polling doesn't tell the whole picture. However, the NYT and all other sites that subjectively categorize solid/leans/tossups, I am pretty sure tend to overstate the chances of an incumbent, or at least seem to be doing so now. I frankly trust them less than I trust generic polling.

    Edit ti respond to your edit: who is this Nate Silver?
    My favorite liberal ever.

    Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com


    EDIT: to highlight what I was saying earlier: many of the Senate races the NYT map categorizes as "leans Dem" or "tossup", Nate Silver's analysis categorizes as tossup or leans GOP or even relatively safe GOP. For example, Silver gives Arkansaw a 100% chance of electing a Republican Senator, while the NYT map only has that race as "lean GOP". This probably holds true of House seats as well.
    Last edited by Dav; 08-31-10 at 12:29 AM.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    To add, and thanks goes to dav for this link: Senate Races - Election 2010 - The New York Times

    Dems have 46 fairly solid seats in senate, with 5 leans democratic, and 8 tossups, which means that dems should retain the senate.

    In the house, 168 solid democratic, 163 solid repub(and this is why I hate generic polls, which would lead one to guess otherwise on those). In leaning, it's 55 dem, 18 repub, and 31 tossups.

    Now, this all does not consider some important points, such is how motivated to get out to vote people on the left and right are. I suspect that in the leadup to November, you will see strong pushes by both sides to get people out to vote(yes, you can call me Capt. Obvious for that).
    You should check out the numbers at Real Clear Politics which averages all of the polls together, tends to iron out the anomolies. I can show you numbers that have the Republicans leading by vastly larger margins than I've stated here.

    Check them out... Not looking good for the Dems.

    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Didn't you guys read my post?

    Newsweek fudged their own numbers. Their poll doesn't show the democrats neck and neck with republicans as they reported.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    What you have to understand is most of the polling that people base the bloodbath on is generic polling, which is basically worthless.
    nonsense, cook devotes indefatigable, fastidious effort into breaking down individual house and senate races

    rcp's projections are based on local polls, like albequerque journal, like las vegas review, as well as national outfits like we ask america and aaf-ayers, in addition to more notable mason dixon's, survey usa's...

    cook isn't alone, chuck todd of msnbc was a district by district guy when he worked for hotline and was a regular on brian lamb's washington journal---folks should listen when mr todd talks, even take notes...

    fox's michael barone is much the same, i could tell you a very interesting story about election nite 2000...

    karl rove got his start this way

    these guys are like almanacs of capitol hill electorals

    The repubs will make significant gains in the south, but only small gains...
    LOL!

    where the heck did that come from
    Last edited by The Prof; 08-31-10 at 12:32 AM.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by damianvincent View Post
    You should check out the numbers at Real Clear Politics which averages all of the polls together, tends to iron out the anomolies. I can show you numbers that have the Republicans leading by vastly larger margins than I've stated here.

    Check them out... Not looking good for the Dems.

    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House
    RCP still puts it at roughtly 10ish seat majority to repubs in house, which is very much in line with what I have been saying. Trust me, if Dems don't lose the house, we will consider it a strait up victory election.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    it's also politics 101 that late breaking undecideds tend pretty strongly to go against incumbency

    the psychology is something along the lines of---if you like ms boxer, you like her, if you haven't yet made up your mind...

    she being so known, and all

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Trust me...
    why?

    i'll stick with links, if you don't mind

    with links, questions of character don't come up

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    why?

    i'll stick with links, if you don't mind

    with links, questions of character don't come up
    Holy ****, take 2 words out of a post and spin them to mean something totally unlike what I posted. That is one of the most dishonest things I have seen around here in awhile. Good job!
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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