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Thread: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
    Honestly it was the free coffee from Starbucks. Vote and get a free cup. We have seven I believe here on campus.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    1. as a very close watcher of all polls for a very long time i can tell you with no partisan spin that newsweek, which doesn't poll very often, is routinely rather an outlier

    2. rasmussen has been the most accurate pollster in the nation since 04---in 04, 06 and 08 scott, the founder of espn, nailed it

    3. i can give you the links, i can give you the fordham university study that confirms (it's all empirics, after all, pure numbers) rasmussen #1

    4. i can also tell you that it is a common knowledge that for whatever reasons republicans always do better at the polls than they do in their generics, by about 3%, says the common wisdom

    5. that is, all my seemingly endless life democrats have held this apparently inherent generic lead over the party i'm such a reluctant member of, even in years that hold a november which turns out to be pretty solidly red

    6. it's probably, in my opinion, because so many pollsters question registered voters instead of likely voters, and gop demographics tend to contribute to higher turnouts

    7. rasmussen, for instance, asks only likely voters, it's what separates him from the rest, most notably gallup which stubbornly sticks to its surveys of all those who've motor-voter reg'd, or whatever

    8. gallup today stunningly has reds up generically by +10, by far the highest for the party of lincoln in the 68 year history of our most prestigious pollster

    Tidal wave? 10-point poll edge for GOP - Jonathan Allen and Richard E. Cohen - POLITICO.com

    9. before barack, the highest gop margin was +5 in 02, that record shattered in george's reckonings the last 3 weeks straight, +6, +7, +10

    10. of course the president's popularity or un- has great impact on ballots

    11. independents are breaking in record numbers one way

    12. seniors ALWAYS VOTE, seniors run this country, seniors have all the money, they're motivated and they know what's going on

    13. in offyears, the influence of the elderly is greatly increased

    14. they are breaking hugely away

    15. the youth vote is notoriously unreliable and their hero, now far fallen, is not directly in front of them in this offyear

    16. african americans, i'm sorry to say, turn out fewer in offyears

    17. offyears generally are about the most dedicated voters

    18. the enthusiasm gap, last i saw, was over 20

    19. the gop will generally run candidates amenable to tea and the beck crowd will in most cases rally behind her or him who gives them the best chance to stonewall barry, witness scott brown in teddy kennedy's seat

    20. the house, naturally, is far harder to forecast than the gubs and the senate

    21. in upper parliament, +6 appears in the bag---delaware, pennsylvania, indiana, north dakota, colorado and arkansas

    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Senate No Toss Ups

    22. meek's win in florida almost surely gives sunshine to rubio, the cuban tea drinker has lurched to a 10 point lead since the primary

    23. reds require 10 pickups to take upstairs

    24. they would need---harry reid (7), patty murray (8), russ feingold (9), alex giannoulias in obama/burris' bench (10), bitchy barbara boxer (11), richard blumenthal in biden's seat (12), governor manchin in bobby kkk byrd's west virginia chair (13)

    25. that's not as tall an order as it appears---since his primary win dino rossi opened a 7 point lead in washington, ron johnson in wisconsin poked ahead of feingold by a point

    26. and i can tell you that ms boxer who mustn't be called that is more vulnerable out here in fruits-and-nuts land than she's ever been, by far

    27. manchin has lost exactly 11 points since just last saturday's primary, down to a 7 point advantage

    28. in the house, rcp has moved 15 seats to the gop in the last 3 weeks or so, which is very unusual, rcp's house numbers usually freeze

    29. today rcp has reds gaining 51 positions, giving opposition a 12 seat plurality on pelosi's cheap carpet

    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House

    30. i would very much look at voter turnout as thus far demonstrated---those aren't polls, those are hard and real data

    31. in michigan reds outpolled blues in the wolverine primary, 2 to 1

    32. in arizona, where house dems are really in big trouble, republicans also doubled dem ballots

    33. in florida (you all know how indicative chad country can be), turnout was 1.6 to 1 red

    34. in missouri, which has picked the president more often and more accurately than any state, the most bellwether commonwealth in the country, which also had measure c on its ballot, refusing to accept obamacare's individual mandate (it passed, 71 to 29), red voters outnumbered their counterparts, 1.6 to 1

    35. in usually reliably blue washington, which has a blanket primary, putting all candidates regardless of affiliation on the same ballot---analysts look to the evergreens the way they used to see maine before 1958---reds outvoted dems by a very small margin, about 1.1 or 1.2 to 1

    36. house dems from washington are also rather famously in particular danger

    37. charlie cook is an insider's stud, when he talks THEY really listen

    38. ten days ago he made statements that msm headlines interpreted: cook sees gop romp

    Political Prognosticator Sees a Republican House - WSJ.com

    39. the analyst's actual words are quite a bit more measured than "romp," but if you parse them...

    40. anyway, I SAW with my own eyes the insider's reaction to cook's recipe---that's when the pessimism really hit, leadership, membership...

    41. finally, the governorships---there's way too much data to go over right now, but suffice it to say, reds are in a significantly stronger position in the capitols than they are in either the senate or the house

    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Governor No Toss Ups

    42. and i'm going to take for granted that you all appreciate the powerful part governorships play in presidentials

    fyi

    party on!
    Last edited by The Prof; 08-30-10 at 10:53 PM.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    There is something missing from the poll - How much the base is energized for each party. The GOP base is revved up, but the Democrat base is, for the most part, apathetic.
    Revved up, but seemingly directionless, and deeply divided.
    The fringe-element extremists seem to have become the mouthpieces for the party; I can only assume there's a large silenced majority of moderate Republicans who resent having their party hijacked in this manner.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath - Newsweek

    As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats.

    Actual poll results

    http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf
    president Obama, eh? how do Congressional Republicans look?


    Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress...

    The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats...

    Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be "very" enthusiastic about voting, and now hold -- by one point -- the largest such advantage of the year.

    Enthusiasm About Voting in 2010 Congressional Elections by Party, Weekly Averages: % Very Enthusiastic, Among Registered Voters


    ...The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections. Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major "wave" election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House...

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

    1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
    2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
    3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

    If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.
    For that to happen the GOP would have to lose 2 of the Senate seats they now currently lead in, and that's assuming the Dems keep Feigngold's, Reid's, Murray, all of which only lead by 1.something. That would wind up being some pretty good fortune for the Dems going forward. As far as the house is concerned I feel your way off, the GOP only needs 10 of 35 toss ups almost all of which are Dem seats.

    I mean for the Dems to hold the House they have to win over 2/3 the toss up seats, in this election cycle, I just don't see it happening.
    Last edited by damianvincent; 08-31-10 at 12:00 AM.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by damianvincent View Post
    For that to happen the GOP would have to lose 2 of the seats they now currently lead in, and that's assumeing the Dems keep Feigngold's, Reid's, Murray, all of which only lead by 1.something. That's assumeing some pretty good fortune for the Dems going forward. As far as the house is concerned I feel your way off, the GOP only needs 10 of 35 toss ups alomst all of which are Dem seats.

    I mean for the Dems to hold the House they have to win 2/3 the toss up seats.
    What you have to understand is most of the polling that people base the bloodbath on is generic polling, which is basically worthless. The repubs will make significant gains in the south, but only small gains the rest of the country, so things could very well end up as he describes.I could easily see repubs get as any as 20 seat majority in the house, with 10 not at all unlikely, but if I where to guess, it will be a very close to split house. Dems will almost surely keep control of the senate, but probably not by more than 2 or 3 seats.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    It appears that Newsweek lied about their own poll... The numbers just don't add up.

    Check this out!

    The FreeStater Blog: Newsweek: Overpriced Even at $1

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    To add, and thanks goes to dav for this link: Senate Races - Election 2010 - The New York Times

    Dems have 46 fairly solid seats in senate, with 5 leans democratic, and 8 tossups, which means that dems should retain the senate.

    In the house, 168 solid democratic, 163 solid repub(and this is why I hate generic polls, which would lead one to guess otherwise on those). In leaning, it's 55 dem, 18 repub, and 31 tossups.

    Now, this all does not consider some important points, such is how motivated to get out to vote people on the left and right are. I suspect that in the leadup to November, you will see strong pushes by both sides to get people out to vote(yes, you can call me Capt. Obvious for that).
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    What you have to understand is most of the polling that people base the bloodbath on is generic polling, which is basically worthless. The repubs will make significant gains in the south, but only small gains the rest of the country, so things could very well end up as he describes.I could easily see repubs get as any as 20 seat majority in the house, with 10 not at all unlikely, but if I where to guess, it will be a very close to split house. Dems will almost surely keep control of the senate, but probably not by more than 2 or 3 seats.
    To not repeat myself, I'll just link to my post in another thread here: http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-ele...post1058954443

    Sorry, but anyone who thinks that the GOP won't control the house either hasn't noticed what is going on, or has tried to blind themselves to it. I would be surprised if they picked up less than 50 seats, and wouldn't be surprised if they picked up more than 60.

    I don't know why you said that about the South; the GOP has potential gains pretty much everywhere now, including areas where they don't usually win much, like the Northeast and the West. Maybe you said that because of numbers that show that their numbers in the South are racheting up the numbers for the country as a whole, but that is always the case. The important thing is not how well they do in a region, but how well they do in a region compared to the norm. If they win only one or two House elections in New England, it will be more than they already have now.

    Generic Ballots aren't accurate tools to show election outcomes, but they do show general trends. For the Democrats to come back from the shorfall they have now would be unprecedented, and if they keep the House by a single seat, it will be one of the largest political upsets in U.S. history.
    (Okay, maybe I did slightly repeat myself.)


    EDIT: Maybe I should wait for Nate Silver's House model to come out before I make such sweeping generalizations though. He keeps saying he'll put it up soon but hasn't yet. It'll be interesting to see the results, at least. Nate Silver, as it happens, is a liberal who has said that he doesn't think people realize just how bad a position the House Democrats are in right now.
    Last edited by Dav; 08-31-10 at 12:17 AM.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    It appears that Newsweek lied about their own poll... The numbers just don't add up.

    Check this out!

    The FreeStater Blog: Newsweek: Overpriced Even at $1
    i didn't want to say it, grim, but that's precisely the newsweek i've come so well to know

    thanks for the link

    liberals loathe links

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