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Thread: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by FilmFestGuy View Post
    In general, I don't trust generic ballot polls (would you vote Republican or Democrat) because people have a tendency to view their own representative differently than the party as a whole.

    Cook Political Report has 40 seats in "toss-up" (largely Democrats) and an additional 36 leaning (again, largely Democratic).

    For instance, a guy named Mike Ross, D-AR is in a district rated R+7 (meaning largely Republican) and he considered likely to be safe as a Democrat.

    Additionally, since this is nation-wide polling, it's also including those people in districts that are simply never going to change party because of gerrymandering.

    You really have to focus on the 40 or so seats that are actually at risk to see what's going to happen.

    Republicans are going to make gains, for sure. I still don't think they'll take a majority, though. If they do, it will be relatively slim.

    Honestly, I've reached the point of not really caring which party is in control. I just want actual governing to occur. And by governing - I mean serving all Americans, even those you disagree with. Both parties have become victims of over-estimating their political capital.

    Sadly, if Republicans take control, I fear that they will merely continue this trend.

    Everyone - from Bush to Delay to Cheney to Obama to Pelosi to Reid keep thinking they have a "mandate" when they win.

    From now on, I want my leaders to realize, that unless they won like 80 - 90% of the vote, they've not been given a mandate to do anything. They've been given permission to represent their community - and usually by a slim to moderate margin.
    I agree that the generic ballot is'nt as accurate as district by district polling, the point of my post was that the numbers in general look pretty dismal for the Democrats.

    Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls, has the Republicans gaining at least 7 of 10 seats in the Senate, and has at least 31 house seats leaning/likely GOP gains, that would mean that the GOP only has to win 10 of the 34 toss up races, a feat pretty likely in this enviroment.
    The Obama Deficit

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.
    That would mean that Republicans would have to have A) a majority in the House in 2013, B) a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate in 2013, and C) the White House in 2013.

    It's not going to happen, even if the Democrats take a thumpin' in the polls this year. Dream on.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 08-30-10 at 05:09 PM.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    IMO, anyone who honestly thinks that the Democrats won't lose the House in November are deluding themselves at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    That would mean that Republicans would have to have A) a majority in the House in 2013, B) a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate in 2013, and C) the White House in 2013.

    It's not going to happen, even if the Democrats take a thumpin' in the polls this year. Dream on.
    At least to begin with, all they have to do is not vote to fund it.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Undoing that will be Job #1 for the next president.
    That's over 6 years away.....it will be old news by then.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by disneydude View Post
    That's over 6 years away.....it will be old news by then.
    HA! You got two if you're lucky and he doesn't get impeached before that.


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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    HA! You got two if you're lucky and he doesn't get impeached before that.


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    Impeached on what basis? I swear, if Clinton and Bush can weather all the **** they pulled, Obama will be just fine.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    Impeached on what basis? I swear, if Clinton and Bush can weather all the **** they pulled, Obama will be just fine.
    I would agree. I don't see anyone who could be considered a legitmate threat to Obama in 2012. Regardless of what happens in 2010.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

    1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
    2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
    3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

    If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.

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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

    1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
    2-There was a swell and excitement with minority voters and youth voters to both be rid of Bush and to elect the first black president. Can the democrats do anything to inspire those folks to vote.
    3-Will those that already voted for democrats be upset because they arent seeing all those hopeful changes in their lives.

    If I was a betting man...and I am but not on things I have no control over...but Id say at the end of the day the dems will have a 54/46 majority in the senate and will likely keep the house by 3-4 seats.
    That right there is a pretty good post. I agree with your senate prediction, and I think the house is still way too close to call, and could swing about 10 seats either way. More if something significant happens between now and then.
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    Re: NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    There are some variables that make this very uncertain...already mentioned in some cases.

    1-Will the Tea Party actually detract from republican support (if a tea party condidate loses and its the same ol republicans running, will people bother to vote-will defeated candidates run for office as independents and split the conservative vote)
    Especially agreed on your #1 point. I think it sucks that the Republican and Tea Partiers are practically interchangeable. It would be awesome if the entire apple cart spilled, and we then had a fighting shot at getting anything done.

    I don't think any of us have the slightest idea of how to possibly make that happen.

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